UPDATED: Iran declares US negotiation offer “propaganda”/Condi’s diplomatic dance
I laughed when I read the AP report.
The lede:
The United States said Wednesday it would join in face-to-face talks with Iran over its disputed nuclear program if Tehran first agreed to put challenged atomic activities on hold, a shift in tactics meant to offer the Iranians a last chance to avoid punishing sanctions.
Iran dismissed the offer as “a propaganda move.”
Before leaving for meetings in Europe on Iran, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that while the U.S. was willing to join talks between European nations and Iran, it was also helping to prepare a package of sanctions that Tehran could face should it decline the new offer.
Why chuckle? The US offer isn’t propaganda per se, but a savvy diplomatic dance-step. Why isn’t it propaganda? The US would talk to Iran if the US pre-condition is met. In all probability, the US pre-condition (that Tehran essentially stop illegal nuclear activities) is a pre-condition Tehran will never accept. The US statement shifts the spotlight from Iran’s demand that the US participate in talks back to the key issue: Iran’s outlaw nuclear program. Nice pirouette.
The US is alsodancing with “the EU-3″ (Britain, Germany, and France) and “the Security Council Two” (China and Russia). The EU-3 seem to think the US needs to demonstrate a willingness to talk to Iran. The new American proposal does that, and removes (or at least hampers) a Euro-appeasenik talking point, ie, “the failed negotiations are America’s fault because America failed to participate.”
Condi Rice’s State Department is after UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. The diplomatic ballet isn’t over –in fact it may be a dance marathon. But Rice’s latest choreography is a sharp kick routine. Let the mullahs twist and shout.
UPDATE: Fox’s SPecial Report panel is discussing this subject (Nina Easton of Fortune, Morton Kondracke, and Fred Barnes, plus Brit Hume). Easton said that this move has the potential to “isolate the regime” (ie Iran) instead of isolating the US. That’s right. Kondracke said that the US thinks “the allies” (EU-3) will support sanctions. I think he also means China and Russia. Barnes replied to a good question from Hume that this US move didn’t “come out of the blue.” (Hume asked Barnes why we would think that the other nations would support pre-conditions– excellent question.) Barnes pointed out that the Tehran regime wants one on one talks with the US. Good segment.
[FWIW, Lou Dobbs on CNN was discussing immigration. I have been channel surfing.]
UPDATE 2: We installed a new spam filter. It is by no means perfect (for background, see the post on Comments from this past week). If you do not get a “spam” noitification but you comment fails to appear, that means it has been forwarded to a moderation file. That means I have to review the comment and I usually do that once a day. This is unfortunate and it frustrates discussion, but in the last half hour the spam filter has harvested over 100 spams. (I checked the spam harvest over a 12 hour period this past weekend and it caught 1157 spams.) The spam swarm is not only theft of advertising space –and it is indeed that– but in my opinion it begins to infringe on rational discussion and hence free speech. See the comment thread in the post on Comments.
U.S. Sets Conditions for Talks With Iran… The United States is prepared to join other nations in holding direct talks with Iran on its nuclear…
Trackback by Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator — 5/31/2006 @ 4:32 pm
Typo? Â ED NOTE: Yup. Typos happen when typing fast. Good catch. Thanks. And I corrected it.
Comment by Mark A. Flacy — 5/31/2006 @ 5:23 pm
Psst… Iraq (as in “The US would talk to Iraq if the US pre-condition ” ) isn’t at the moment trying to build nukes.I am pretty sure that by this point we would notice
ED NOTE: See above. Thanks to you, too. Â
Comment by dawnsblood — 5/31/2006 @ 5:28 pm
Iran is beginning to cave. They know that we are not going to let up on them, no matter what. Here is an article on the past and future of warfare, with discussions on the future of Iran in particular.
Comment by Tudalu — 5/31/2006 @ 5:32 pm
Well, I suspect that the people over at the American Spectator won’t be happy, but this is clearly a smart move by Condi, and has her fingerprints all over it. Deft and smooth, as well as unexpected. The rug merchants will be back, however, with a counteroffer, insisting on direct talks with sweeteners attached. Should be interesting, but place your bets on the “next” President of the United States to come back with a shock trip to Tehran that’s all show but changes nothing of substance.  ED NOTE: Having dealt with rug merchants on their turf, I know you’re right. But Condi’s pirouette surprised them. Fact is, the move socked them. When they come back they will look like rug salesmen who’ve lost a little face. They are in a bind, aren’t they? Accusing the US of insincerity –Tehran’s first reaction– raises the question of Iranian sincerity.
Comment by section9 — 5/31/2006 @ 5:45 pm
[…] Col. Austin Bay laughed when he read the AP report. […]
Pingback by The Real Ugly American.com » Blog Archive » Iran Snubs American Offer of Diplomacy — 5/31/2006 @ 7:50 pm
United States Willing To Talk With Iran…With Con… Austin Bay offers his take:…
Trackback by Martin's Musings — 5/31/2006 @ 9:20 pm
[2nd try, now w/o url; first try had it] GREAT move by Condi! I’ve been supporting her for 2008 already for years. Still, I can believe she doesn’t really want that much attention, and has never campaigned. I also like Porkbuster Senator Coburn — who could be “third party” kind of Republican. He WAS a Congressman, and did leave after 3 terms like he said he would, unlike most other Rep Congressmen elected in 1994 who promised 10 year max, but are still there.
Comment by Tom Grey - Liberty Dad — 6/1/2006 @ 2:23 am
Condi’s Diplomatic Dance… Austin Bay couldn’t help laughing when he heard that Iran dismissed US’ negotiation offer as propaganda. Actually it’s quite a “savvy diplomatic dance-step,” he says…….
Trackback by Pajamas Media — 6/1/2006 @ 6:29 am
Didn’t Ahmadinejad end his letter to Bush with an historical ultimatum, in essence “Submit to Islam or die!”? This sounds like we know how to do that dance.
Comment by AST — 6/1/2006 @ 7:02 pm
Ahmadinejad and his ally Al Qaeda believe that time is on their side. They also believe that American media, and liberals, are on their side. Every hinted concession, from the western side, only reinforces these beliefs.
Comment by Layer Seven — 6/1/2006 @ 7:34 pm
Fanatics tend to believe their own press clippings.
Comment by section9 — 6/1/2006 @ 8:43 pm
[…] The weak point in Condi’s diplo-dance is buckling– buckling, hemming, and hawing by France, Germany, Russia, or China. […]
Pingback by Austin Bay Blog » Bolton:”no grand bargain” with Iran — 6/10/2006 @ 6:21 am