UPDATED: Zarqawi “terminated” in air raid/live blogging President’s Report/live blogging CENTCOM/MNF briefing
The news is on tv– Zarqawi was killed in an air raid on a farm house near the town of Baqubah. The Iraqi government said Zarqawi was “terminated.” Fingerprints have confirmed his death; however, DNA analysis is now underway.
This is a major political victory for the Iraqis– not necessarily a military victory. IEDs will continue to explode.But the War on Terror is a war of ideological and political attrition. This is not a turning point– in wars of abrasion there are few turning points, only long trends. The trends in Iraq are amazing news– an emerging democracy in the heart of the politically dysfunctional Arab Muslim Middle East. This is a psychological boost for the Iraqis and the US–and a definite boost for the new Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The new Iraqi government is building a political process. Removing Zarqawi forwards that process. Maliki has also promised the Iraqi people he will improve the internal security situation. Maliki can use Zarqawi’s death to help heal sectarian (Sunni-Shia) rifts in Iraq.
Check out this prescient post that appeared ons StrategyPage this week (a post written by Jim Dunnigan).
THE WAY THINGS REALLY WORK: Zarqawi Scheduled for Martyrdom
June 7, 2006: The relationship between terrorist leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi and and the mainline al Qaeda leadership continues to deteriorate. Zarqawi’s recent audio messages have not only attacked the U.S. and the Shia-dominated government in Iraq, but also Iran. He’s even claiming that the U.S., Iran, and Shia in general, are in cahoots to destroy Islam. He has also called for continued attacks against Shia.
Except for his verbal attacks on the U.S. and the Iraqi government, he is almost totally distanced himself from the central leadership. Other al Qaeda leaders have been trying to down play anti-Iranian and anti-Shia rhetoric, and have been strongly discouraging attacks on civilians.
Given that Zarqawi has become a loose cannon and that his actions are handicapping Al Qaeda’s efforts, it seems reasonable to expect that an accident may befall him at some point in the near future. If handled right it can be made to look like he went out in a blaze of glory fighting American troops or that he was foully murdered. Either way, al Qaeda gets rid of a problem and gains another “martyr.”
What led to Zarqawi’s aleination? Killing Muslims in the middle of the Middle East. His actions “attrited” Al Qaeda’s appeal. This is one strategic reason we had to have a battlefield in the “middle of the Middle East.”
Liveblogging the president:
6:30 AM CDT: President Bush is now on tv. Special Forces directed the raid at 6:15 Baghdad time. “The prince” of terror in Iraq is now dead. Bush is saying Zarqawi sought to divide Iraqis and incite civil wa– sectarian civil war. “Iraqis can be justly proud of their new government and its early steps to improve their security.” Bush says killing Zarqawi is a victory in the War on Terror. Bush says he and Iraqi PM Maliki have talked and that Iraq now has a new minister of defense and minister of interior. (Maliki has completed his cabinet.) (End of live report).
UPDATE: Here’s a transcript of the President’s remarks.
Zarqawi’s death is good news. Special ops was looking for him in 2004 when I served in Iraq. A friend of mine in Special Forces told me finding Zarqawi was a tough mission, but “eventually we’ll get him.” They certainly did.
UPDATE: From The Christian Science Monitor. Fox is reporting thatr Al Jazeera is showing the video with Zarqawi failing to fire a US weapon (in which he looks like a fool).
UPDATE 2: Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNFI) and CENTCOM say that the coalition confirmed Zarqawi’s presence before the strike. I remember my early, early morning conversations with the CJSOTF (Coalition Joint Special Operations Task Force) liaison officers in the Multi-National Corps-Iraq Joint Operations Center. (A good friend of mine was chief of the liaison cell.) One SEAL would tell me every morning “We were busy last night, sir.” Of course special ops was busy doing many things, but hunting senior Al Qaeda leadership was a priority. Intel was tough — gaining good intel is always tough, and having timely intelligence is critical to a pinpoint operation (and arresting or attacking a terror chief is a pinpoint operation).
Liveblogging the CENTCOM/MNF briefing from Baghdad:
The CENTCOM/MNF briefer (I’m watching the briefing right now) says that this morning’s successful operation was the product of a long, meticulous effort. That’s right. He’s emphasizing that this is a ”joint” operation. Special ops units tracked members of Zarqawi’s inner circle. The USAF dropped the bombs (two five hundred pounders according to a recent update). Coalition forces and Iraq contributed to intelligence collection and analysis.
The US briefer (Major-General William Caldwell) is pointing out to the press that Zarqawi targeted Iraqi civilians and exhorted Sunnis to “rise up against the Shia.” The Iraqi government will also emphasize this point So I’ll repeat this line from the original post: “Maliki can use Zarqawi’s death to help heal sectarian (Sunni-Shia) rifts in Iraq.”
Another question: Trudy Rubin of the Philadelphia Inquirer is exploring a conspiracy theory, that the attack was timed to emphasize the emergence of Maliki’s new government. (Rubin says Arab news sources are discussing this theory.)
MG Caldwell’s reply (paraphrased): “I only wish we were that good to time everything with what the Iraqi government is doing and what coalition forces are doing…but that isn’t the case.” MG Caldwell adds: “No there was absolutely nothing at all in collusion with we were waiting for the announcement of ministers to go after Zarqawi.”
A great question from an Arab journalist: If there is no Zarqawi who would be next.
MG Caldwell: “Coalition forces have already done that (looked at that). Abu Al-Masari is probably the person who will try to occupy the position Zarqawi had. If you look at their structure he’s the logical one who could try to move into there.”
Rich Oppel Jr from the NY Times asks if Zarqawi was dead when coalition forces arrived at the attack site. Caldwell: “Yes. He was dead.”
MG Caldwell says Zarqawi came to Iraq in 2002 and “probably helped establish the first Al Qaeda cell in Baghdad.”
Major-General Caldwell’s last statement: “We are extremely excited about the fact that the government of Iraq has named ministers for Defense, Interior, and National Security.” That’s the big picture, the incremental victory created brick by brick, election by election, daily sacrifice by daily sacrifice. Zarqawi gives the press a “bomb story”– and another opportunity to focus on the big picture.
UPDATE 3: Additional thought: Trudy Rubin asked an appropriate question and MG Caldwell gave a splendid answer. The major media has not covered the incremental elements of this war– by incremental I mean the type of daily, meticulous, trial and error efforts it takes to fight and win a war. If you know special ops was “busy” each and every night (the SEAL’s wry line I mention in Update 2) you know it took a lot of work to produce today’s headline.
UPDATE 4: John Burns of the NY Times reports.
Key excerpt:
Mr. Maliki, the prime minister, said the raid that killed the Al Qaeda leader had taken place in an area known as Hibhib in Diyala province, which stretches north and east of Baghdad to the Iranian border. The area, 55 miles north of Baghdad, has drawn intensified American military activity in recent weeks in response to a new wave of sectarian killings, including one on Sunday in which Sunni Arab gunmen pulled 20 people off minibuses near Baquba, including seven high school students, and killed them.
General Casey said an American air strike had targeted “a single dwelling in a wooded area surrounded by very dense palm forest” eight kilometers, or five miles, north of the city of Baquba, and that “precision munitions” had been used, a phrase that usually refers to laser-guided bombs or missiles. An unconfirmed report on Iraq’s state-owned television channel, al-Iraqiya, said the attack had been carried out by American attack helicopters.
Mr. Zebari said the American military had been following Zarqawi “very closely” in recent weeks. He said Zarqawi had been vulnerable ever since he had lost his refuge in Anbar province, which is largely in the hands of Sunni insurgents. “He had been forced out of Anbar” after Sunnis there “joined hands with their Iraqi brothers,” Mr. Zebari said.
Here are the names of Maliki’s new cabinet members, and their respective positions:
The new ministers were named as Gen. Abdul Qadr Mohammed Jassim, a former general under Saddam Hussein who was jailed in 1994 and sentenced to seven years imprisonment, as minister of defense; Jawad Khadim Polani, a former air force engineering specialist under Mr. Hussein, as minister of the interior, responsible for the police; and Shirwan al-Waili as minister of national security.
Read the entire article.
Zarqawi Killed… [EXCLUSIVE PJM PODCAST: Iraq the Model Reacts to Zarqawi’s Death: What does it mean for Iraq? Listen to Richard Fernandez of the Belmont Club interview Omar from Iraq the Model — direct from Baghdad. Play or download it here.] UPDATE……
Trackback by Pajamas Media — 6/8/2006 @ 6:27 am
[…] More here, and it’ll be living at the top of the page here longer than yesterday’s Coulter […]
Pingback by LeatherPenguin » al-Zarqawi Swims with the Fishes — 6/8/2006 @ 6:28 am
[…] Even more good news is this……Al-Maliki announced two more additions to his cabinet today, one being the defense minister. Maliki promised to stop the sectarian violence recently. He now has big momentum. This may not be a tactical win in the war but it’s a big moral victory. […]
Pingback by The Wide Awake Cafe » Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi Dead - I’m Glad He’s Dead — 6/8/2006 @ 6:29 am
We’ve been hearing for a while now how the delay in appointing the Defense and Interior ministers is a bad sign for Iraq’s prospects for forming a viable govenment. Maliki’s filling of these 2 posts today underscores your point that this is a political victory.
Comment by Drews — 6/8/2006 @ 6:32 am
This is very good news. I was just up reading it when I got a call from my son who is training at Camp McCoy for his deployment to Iraq. He said one of the guys in his unit got the news on his cell phone so he called me to find out more news. My son said it is a huge moral victory at the very least. It brought a big cheer from my son’s unit.
Comment by Laura Lee Donoho — 6/8/2006 @ 6:32 am
BBC America News did a “man in the street” interview this AM from Baghdad. The Iraqis interview all exhibited great joy at news of this event. There were one or two voices of concern over “who will be the next Zarqawi.”
Comment by Bill Gross — 6/8/2006 @ 6:57 am
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi - killed in bombing raid!… Yes! Via FoxNews: BAGHDAD, Iraq — Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Al Qaeda in Iraq leader who led a brutal insurgency that included homicide bombings, kidnappings and beheadings, was killed in an airstrike on a building north of Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi …
Trackback by Sister Toldjah — 6/8/2006 @ 7:01 am
[…] From an update to my earlier post on Zarqawi’s death. […]
Pingback by Austin Bay Blog » Who replaces Zarqawi in Iraq? — 6/8/2006 @ 7:10 am
Zarqawi dead!… Scroll for updates!! The lead of AQ in Iraq has been killed. Al Qaeda leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, blamed for the beheading of foreign captives and the death of hundreds in suicide bombings, has been killed in a raid north of Baghdad, Ir…
Trackback by Super Fun Power Hour — 6/8/2006 @ 7:16 am
This is Truly Great news. However, the real Leaders are from Iran. So, who controls the Iranian money and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard members in Iraq now? Also, when will al-Sadr be killed? That needs to take place also, I believe.
Comment by Charles — 6/8/2006 @ 7:37 am
Al Qaeda Leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is Dead… MSNBC is reporting that US Special Forces have killed al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Update: MSNBC reports that Pentagon officials have confirmed the story. Update II: CNN is now also reporting that al-Zarqawi is dead, and is re…
Trackback by The New Editor — 6/8/2006 @ 7:42 am
[…] ZARQAWI IS DEAD: Good. Unlike previous reports this one seems very likely to be true. I hope his end wasn’t entirely painless, though it seems likely that it was swift. Austin Bay has a roundup and some thoughts. […]
Pingback by Jack’s Newswatch — 6/8/2006 @ 7:58 am
A double victory today. This is great news for us.
Comment by HaroldHutchison — 6/8/2006 @ 8:00 am
ZARQAWI IS DEAD… IT’S OFFICIAL: BAGHDAD, Iraq – Multi-National Force-Iraq Commanding General, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., announced the death of al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in the following statement during a press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister…
Trackback by The Indepundit — 6/8/2006 @ 8:24 am
Breaking News: U.S. officials: Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been killed…. Breaking News: U.S. officials: Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been killed. BAGHDAD, Iraq - Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed overnight in an operation by U.S. Special Operations Forces, U.S. military officials to…
Trackback by Leaning Straight Up — 6/8/2006 @ 9:10 am
[…] UPDATE: Austin Bay has a large roundup. […]
Pingback by TexasXtreme » Al-Zarqawi is DEAD — 6/8/2006 @ 9:11 am
One interesting point from the briefing by MG Caldwell: While US planes did the attack, Iraqi forces were first on the scene, with US forces following. Letting the Iraqis take the lead in such operations is, as has been pointed out on this blog, crucial for the stability of the country. It gives confidence to both the armed forces of Iraq and to the populace, who see their fellow citizens taking responsibility.
Comment by ech — 6/8/2006 @ 9:44 am
Here in Australia Channel 10 and the ABC the news of Zarqui’s demise was followed up immediately in the same report with news of a bomb in a marketplace with the voice over saying clearly that despite the success violence continues. My interprestaion of the intent was to immediatly take the juice out of Zarqui’s death as good news. A little later ABC’s Lateline did a live interview with John Burns of the NY Times in Bhagdad. He, as always, was fair and said that while it wouldn’t stop the violence it was a big victory. He compared the subdued tone of the announcement to Paul Bremmer’s “We got him.” when Saddam was captured. The only thing he said that concerned me - particularly if true - was that he depicted the general violence in Iraq as getting ever worse since 2003. I don’t take that too seriously when the MSM do that because it fits thier quagmire meme, but John Burns usually avoids doing that. I didn’t hear of the ministerial appointments on the TV - just on the net. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t reported - I was channel hopping, but they didn’t seem to be giving it high billing either. John Howard, the Prime Minister, was quoted as hailing the news as a victory and Alexander Downer, the Foreign Minister, was shown saying it was unusual to treat anyone’s death as good news, in this case it was very good news for the Iraqi people and the coalition effort in Iraq. And that’s my impression of the coverage downunder.
Comment by Yankeewombat — 6/8/2006 @ 9:54 am
[…] Apparently Zarqawi has been bagged and tagged. One more score for the good guys! […]
Pingback by Houblog » Blog Archive » Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish — 6/8/2006 @ 9:57 am
I don’t dispute the political analysis Mr. Bay provides. But I get a different message from the Strategy Page excerpt he quotes. I say it means that Zarqawi was given up by al-Qaeda for its own strategic reasons. Therefore, there is no victory here. It means that the war has entered a new phase. ED NOTE: Dunnigan was speculating. Rifts have emerged in Al Qaeda. Shia radicals are (or were) angry with Zarqawi. That’s Dunnigan’s point. There is no evidence (as yet) that he was “given up” by senior Al Qaeda leadership. Jordanian intel is getting credit for the tip, and Jordanian intel has been after Zarqawi for quite some time. It is possible an AQ source tipped them, but the reports say the Jordanian agents were operating inside Iraq. Fox reported that a local Iraqi pointed out the house. Some Al Qaeda leaders may breathe a sigh of relief at Z-Man’s death. However, the organization has been tarred by Zarqawi. –and an update to this ed note: Information from his own network did play a role. GEN Casey confirmed this. The voiceover commentary on tv implied that the network information had been passed on some time ago. We’ll see how this plays out.
Comment by Robert Solot — 6/8/2006 @ 10:04 am
Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi Is Dead… It’s great that Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi is dead, having been killed by two 500 pound bombs 30 miles outside Baghdad. Here’s the video of Al-Zarqawi being killed, courtesy of Michelle Malkin. In all, a great victory for America, Iraq, and our allies. Sur…
Trackback by Michael Williams -- Master of None — 6/8/2006 @ 10:41 am
Yankeewombat, sorry to hear that Aussies are just as liberal as our MSM in the USA, but I am not surprised after the complete banning of weapons for personal protection. I am re-newing my right to carry this week. We are waiting for a national right to carry and “Castle Defense” doctrine both of which would not have been necessary except for a few judges who are members of the ACLU, a Communist organization. One slipped by us about 15 years ago. I can’t wait for her to fall completely asleep on the bench or be impeached or replaced with what the majority of America stands for.
Comment by Chief RZ — 6/8/2006 @ 11:34 am
A Very Good Day In Iraq… We got him. There is one less murderous madman in the world, thanks once again to the U.S. Military: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq who led a bloody campaign of suicide bombings and kidnappings, has been killed in an air strike, U….
Trackback by Hard Starboard — 6/8/2006 @ 11:39 am
Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi Is Dead…Again… Are these guys for real, and whose side are they on exactly. Their own, yeah that sums it up: “Where is Osama? Where are the batillions of trained Iraqis? Doesn’t matter, we got this guy, right? We wrote a 25 million check as a reward, and get a ne…
Trackback by All Things Beautiful — 6/8/2006 @ 4:33 pm
It’s very good he’s dead, EVEN if it was an AQ internal dispute that helped allow the tip. If the terrorists go back to only targetting US/coalition soldiers, they will lose by not having enough success, though they may reduce the revulsion of normal Iraqis. If they keep trying for Sunni-Shia civil war, they will continue to be vulnerable to increasingly dominant Shia gov’t; and fewer Sunni will support stoking a civil war that could easily turn into a Tutsi level ethnic cleansing. The Iraqis will soon be, or are, doing interrogations, like at Abu Ghraib. I don’t think most Sunnis want to be questioned by Shia gov’t folk about local terrorists, or terrorist sympathizers. (We aren’t the Americans … now talk, or else.) Not to mention the Shia death squads, which also need to be cleaned up. Again, slowly. This could be an excellent time for most Sunnis to “surrender” in pleas of nolo contende (?) without accepting any prior guilt, but stopping future attacks. And give up gov’t power, but work to create non-gov’t sources of wealth creation. Business! I pray for this, anyway. Not surprisingly, I agree with Pres. Bush “he got justice.”
Comment by Tom Grey - Liberty Dad — 6/8/2006 @ 4:41 pm
[…] Abu Musab al Zarqawi, head-terrorist-in-charge, is dead. Why don’t I care? Interesting…Bloggers react: Sister Toldjah, Counterterrorism Blog, MM, Wizbang, Texas Rainmaker… […]
Pingback by La Shawn Barber’s Corner » Ann Coulter, Marketing Genius — 6/8/2006 @ 5:07 pm
The quality of the human race was improved considerably today. To quote a line from “Russia With Love,” after Akim Tamiroff shoots a Bulgarian secret police official who “kills for pleasure” with Sean Connery’s sniper rifle: “That pays many debts.” Score one for SOCOM.
Comment by Rich DiNardo — 6/8/2006 @ 6:38 pm
Bush misspoke himself when he said getting was a turning of the tide. But when the 17 safe-house raids are included, and now the 39 other follow up raids and many arrests, this is a major, rather then merely symbolic blow, as I suggest in my own posting: http://forgottenprophets.blogspot.com/2006/06/great-man.html Too bad they waited so long for the raids. They shouldn’t have waited for Z - he wasn’t that important. J
Comment by Jack H — 6/9/2006 @ 5:03 pm
[…] Austin Bay Blog ” UPDATED: Zarqawi “terminated” in air raid … […]
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