Austin Bay Blog

In 2001, bin Laden was promoting a “global caliphate.” The Islamist terror bombers who committed mass murder in Madrid (March 2004) intended to restore Spain (Al Andalus) to Islam. A week before Iraq’s historic January 2005 democratic elections, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi declared a “fierce war on this evil principle of democracy.”

These statements– mad as they may seem– were statements of strategic intent.

Iraq now has a democratically-elected government. Bin Laden hides in a cave. Spain did remove its regimental contingent from Iraq –an operational political victory for Al Qaeda– and Spain remains subject to terrorist threat. However, Catalonian-led regional separatism is a far bigger political threat to Spain than Al Qaeda. Zarqawi is dead and Iraqi security forces continue to roll up his network.

So who is winning this war?

In November 2001 the a sizeable swath of chitchat class thought Afghanistan was an utter failure and that the US had fatally botched the War on Terror– in other words, we were losing. Fighting continues in Afghanistan’s rugged southwest– and it will continue for years, but America’s Afghanistan war is no failure, not in November 2001 and not in June 2006.

Key graf from that column: 

But in war everything is difficult. In part, America is paying the price for a generation of elite opinion leaders largely devoid of personal military service. The lords of chitchat might have more patience if they had suffered the wretched (but enlightening) experience of humping a rifle and 70-pound rucksack at 2 a.m. in the rain, with a sergeant hard on their weary heels.

In retrospect America has fought this global war –and is winning it– with little help or sacrifice from its economic and media elites. Lack of service and sacrifice are one thing, outright hindrance another. Pessimism and defeatism do hinder– both sap will. However, in this war, elite pessimism and defeatism have not produced defeat.

How long before we have a book by an Iraqi historian assessing the Iraqi determination and will to persevere? The Iraqi people’s inked fingers (January 2005) remain a powerful symbol of courage and hope. They have persevered despite daily terrorist massacre. This is one of the biggest stories of our time.

Likewise UN Security Council Resolution 1546–another big story waiting for recognition. Within a year or so an “elite opinionmaker” will discover this document and tout it as the road map to Iraqi democracy. That is exactly what it is –and the Multi National Force-Iraq campaign plan was designed to achieve those goals. 

Plans are necessary, but without effort, sacrifice and persistence they remain words.