Update on the NoKo Missile Launches
North Korea says it intends to continue its missile tantrum. And a dangerous tantrum it is. Threat and crisis are part and parcel of Pyonyang’s negotiation’s strategy.
Janes (link is to article extract for non-subscribers) and a couple of other military sources are reporting that three or four of the SCUD missiles fired in North Korea’s recent “test volley” were launched from either transporter erector launchers (TELs) or mobile erector launchers (MELs). The TELs are the “moon vehicles” specifically designed to carry a tactical or theater missile. MELs are large trucks adapted for this purpose (eg, a Mercedes heavy truck and trailer can be adapted as a launcher). Saddam made use of both TEL and MEL launched SCUDs in the 1991 Gulf War.
Janes’s reported that in May 1993 North Korea test fired three SCUDs and one NoDong (theater ballistic missiles).
The Missile Defense gurus (back when they were BMDO, Ballistic Missile Defense Organization) thought the “most likely” scenario our ABM defnses would face in the “near term” was a “pulse” of six to twelve rogue missiles. That thinking was shaped by the experience of 1991 and an estimate of North Korean capabilities.
Slate says the results are the worst possible outcome for Kim Jong-Il. Yes and no. In the Slate article Fred Kaplan focuses on the failure of the Taepodong. However, Janes notes (in the extract) the NoKos have demonstrated a “significant level of operational readiness.” They can fire a surprise pulse– though given our electronic intelligence capabilities in northeast Asia it may not have been an operational surprise. If The New York Times decides to expose what our intelligence capabilities knew prior to the launch I guess we’ll all learn, won’t we? North Korea’s tantrm has put Russia and China in an embarassing diplomatic bind.
Go to StrategyPage for deep background. And here for more information on Patriot PAC-3s deploying to Okinawa. I discussed the Patriots in this week’s Creators Syndicate column.
