UPDATED: Israel’s “Revised Peace In Galilee”: No targets are immune
The on-going Israeli military operation in Lebanon isn’t as extensive as Arik Sharon’s 1982 “peace in Galilee” offensive.
This new war, however, could have major strategic implications.
The Middle East –the entire world– has changed since 1982. There is no Cold War, there is no Saddam. Lebanon has also changed. Many Lebanese are ready for Hezbollah to enter history’s dustbin. The Lebanese have also experienced twenty years of Syrian occupation and thuggery. Hezbollah remains a creature of Syria– a Syrian tool bought and paid for by Iran.
At the moment Israel’s Lebanon action is much more than a raid. The VOA reports notes the air and sea blockade. So does the BBC. The BBC reported that Israel struck 40 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, but an Israeli spokesman said “no targets are immune.”
The Boston Globe notes an Iranian trap for Israel. The column correctly identifies Tehran’s diplomatic game: Iran’s Hezbollah proxies engaging Israel deflects political attention from Iran’s nuclear shenanigans.
The Globe warns of “a reflexive military response” that plays into Iran’s trap.
That’s a vague enough term– vague enough that it can mean almost anything. (Here’s the tactic: If the Israelis get bogged down in a political-military quagmire, the Globe can say “we told you so.” If the Iraelis succeed then of course the Israelis didn’t respond “reflexively.”)
That said, the Globe editorialist doesn’t want innocent Lebanese to suffer for Tehran’s sins, which is reasonable and laudable.
For this reason, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and possibly Syria are also in a trap.
The relative lack of western criticism of Israel is an indicator. Apparently Israel has an opportunity to hammer Iranian and Syrian proxies.
Israel may also escalate by striking Syrian intelligence targets throughout the region–sending the message that supporting proxies can cost the supporter.
Israeli escalation past a certain point escalation puts Tehran in a bind: if Tehran’s mullahs fail to react militarily they begin to look impotent. Promises of future bombs won’t suffice.
Iran’s mad mullahs may gain by drawing the Israelis into a military incursion followed by months of diplomatic posturing replete with threats and accusations (and pictures of destroyed Lebanese homes). The madmen do not gain if Israel decides to launch a relentless, multi-front offensive, that includes an Iranian front.
Risky? Of course. But Iranian nukes are also risky, and even Russia and China acknowledge that.
In the context of an on-going war with Iranian proxies in Lebanon, if Tehran’s mullahs threaten mass anihilation one too many times the Israelis could strike several Iranian nuclear facilities. This would not be a “pre-emptive strike” but a “deep strike” on Hezbollah’s deep pockets ally and supplier.
The diplomatic component of this scenario: the Israelis make the case that in the post-Saddam, post-Beirut Spring Middle East, proxy wars are no longer tolerated. The Iranians will not be able to respond to Israeli strikes in kind. They will be exposed as weak hotheads and they will have lost at least part of their nuclear investment.
“No targets are immune.” Will Israel continue to restrict that statement to Lebanon?
Syria needs to pay attention. A shift to “no proxy war” would put it in a vise between Israel and Iraq.
UPDATE: See this earlier post–”re-setting the chess board.”
UPDATE 2: I just read Michael Ledeen’s fine essay at NRO. He see the big war. He says it must be fought.
Rat-a-tat… The drumming gets louder: No one should have any lingering doubts about what’s going on in the Middle East. It’s war, and it now runs from Gaza into Israel, through Lebanon and thence to Iraq via Syria. There are……
Trackback by MilBlogs — 7/13/2006 @ 7:27 am
To be honest, of course, the Israelis have one other thing in their favor in the media front of this war: They have three kidnapped soldiers they are trying to rescue.s I don’t think anyone wants to come out against a mission to rescue the victims of kidnapping.
Comment by Harold C. Hutchison — 7/13/2006 @ 7:37 am
More War in Middle East… HEZBOLLAH kidnaps two Israeli soldiers; Israel attacks southern Lebanon, bombs Beirut airport. Terrorists crave crisis. AUSTIN BAY explains it all…….
Trackback by The Indepundit — 7/13/2006 @ 7:54 am
[…] Austin Bay Blog » UPDATED: Israel’s “Revised Peace In Galileeâ€: No targets are immune The Middle East –the entire world– has changed since 1982. There is no Cold War, there is no Saddam. Lebanon has also changed. Many Lebanese are ready for Hezbollah to enter history’s dustbin. The Lebanese have also experienced twenty years of Syrian occupation and thuggery. Hezbollah remains a creature of Syria– a Syrian tool bought and paid for by Iran. […]
Pingback by white pebble · Time for Syria to go — 7/13/2006 @ 8:12 am
The Battle of Syria… Austin Bay:Syria needs to pay attention. A shift to “no proxy war†would put it in a vise between Israel…
Trackback by Isaac Schrödinger — 7/13/2006 @ 8:55 am
Widening Into War?: The Israeli Response in Lebanon and Gaza… [This is a developing post; scroll down for more stories] July 13, 2006 06:55 PDT: CNN (broadcast, no link) quotes Reuters and Lebanese TV reporting that Israeli jets have just hit a Lebanese military airbase in the Bekaa Valley, near……
Trackback by Pajamas Media — 7/13/2006 @ 9:02 am
Unleashing the Dogs of War… Well, Hamas and Fatah, by and through the PA, have declared war against Israel in the starkest of terms and have gotten assistance from Hizbullah in opening a second front. That second front may seem like a good idea for the terrorists, but that will…..
Trackback by A Blog For All — 7/13/2006 @ 9:04 am
Do you think Israel is luring Iran to strike before it gets its nukes? This way, Iran must either let its stooges be wiped out (some defender of Islam!) or it must fight Israel here and now. An Israel on the verge of total defeat might feel justified in obliterating Damascus and Tehran. For the USA that would be truly a miraculous deus ex machina to end this tragedy.
Comment by dhimwit — 7/13/2006 @ 10:13 am
What are the odds of Israel driving to Damascus and toppling Assad, Jr.?
Comment by John J. Vecchione — 7/13/2006 @ 10:14 am
Thanks for the good analysis. I hope more Americans start to see the situation for what it really is. You’ve done your part in making this happen. I’m also elated to see the world’s relatively muted opposition to Israel’s actions. The typical Arab/Palestinian rhetoric is finally losing some of its traction. Maybe the world is finally seeing the situation as it really is. I’m glad to see Israel’s “no targets are immune” strategy. This is the only way to conduct a true war and expect to have any hope of genuine or lasting victory. This is a war, not a game.
Comment by E. T. Page — 7/13/2006 @ 10:55 am
Yes, it may be war and I agree Iran and its ‘outspoken’ president may get more than they bargained for. It is interesting after all the criticism of the ‘International Community’ about Israel and the US actions in Iraq that they are not all over Israel. Could it be that the ‘International Community’ is waking up that Syria and the mad Mullahs realy are a threat? Nah…too much to hope for. The minute Israel does something EFFECTIVE the chorus will start.
Comment by Yankeewombat — 7/13/2006 @ 11:18 am
[…] Hezbollah’s paymasters may have cause to rue that mistake. In the context of an on-going war with Iranian proxies in Lebanon, if Tehran’s mullahs threaten mass anihilation one too many times the Israelis could strike several Iranian nuclear facilities. This would not be a “pre-emptive strike†but a “deep strike†on Hezbollah’s deep pockets ally and supplier. […]
Pingback by Strangely Silent: De Doc`s Ventures » Blog Archive » Casus Belli — 7/13/2006 @ 11:35 am
Powerline has a good post on this, too: http://powerlineblog.com/archives/014675.php
Comment by E. T. Page — 7/13/2006 @ 11:43 am
It isn’t going to matter until we realize, and the president acknowledges, that we are in a multi-milennial, cultural war of Islam versus the West. Are we supposed to buy the history textbook pablum (I teach high school history by the way) that the crusades were really all about recapturing the holy land, or should we “rewrite” history and remind ourselves that for four centuries the Saracen raided, burnt, enslaved, killed, and threatened Europe and the crusades were not to remove the “infidel” but a retaliatory war against an agressive and determined enemy. Are we really to believe that the assault on Vienna was the last of it? We are either going to wage total and final war (see Hanson’s Carnage and Culture) and destroy and reshape that world, or we will cease to exist as a free and modern society. They will get the bomb and use it against us unless we act, decisively and urgently. Need we burn Persopolis to the ground? No. But we had better be prepared to do so and let them know we have no more qualms or reservations. They operate on the belief that we won’t, and they know we know we won’t. Time to end all of that nonsense.
Comment by Rob Mandel — 7/13/2006 @ 11:51 am
[…] Courtesy of Austin Bay: […]
Pingback by NoisyRoom.net » Blog Archive » UPDATED: Israel’s “Revised Peace In Galileeâ€: No targets are immune — 7/13/2006 @ 1:05 pm
That said, the Globe editorialist doesn’t want innocent Lebanese to suffer for Tehran’s sins, which is reasonable and laudable. They’re not suffering for Tehran’s sins, they’re suffering for their sins. They allow Hezbollah to exist, and to attack Israel. Until they stop doing that (and I don’t really care how much it costs them to stop Hezbollah, that’s their problem), they are, and should be, legitimate targets. There’s no such thing as acceptable terrorism. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. Therefore it needs to be destroyed. When the Lebanese are willing to do that, then they will become worthy of our concern.
Comment by Greg D — 7/13/2006 @ 1:59 pm
Austin, was your comment that world reaction was muted made before or after the EU condemned Israel? I’m not surprised to see the (French) and the EU condeming Israel, just wondering about the timing of your comment. ED NOTE: Well before. The French condemnation was slow in coming. Still strikes me as muted–but we’ll know more in a week.
Comment by John Galt — 7/13/2006 @ 2:20 pm
Navigating the Blogosphere… I’ve spent the last few hours reading blog roundups on Israel’s two-front war. Here are the ones to which you should be paying attention. No comments section for this one, just read. Cliff May on the casus belli: For some……
Trackback by Op For — 7/13/2006 @ 2:29 pm
[…] But today nothing seems obvious or inevitable, at least to us. Real time decisions are being made by the most ruthless of players in Iran — presumably, as Michael Ledeen said, they’ve been spoiling for this, so they must have the outline of a battle plan. The Boston Globe says this is all a ruse by Iran to deflect attention away from its nuclear standoff with the UN (HT: Austin Bay) — if so, war is a pretty inefficient means of conducting PR. We’re reminded of Laurel and Hardy: “this is another fine mess you’ve gotten us into.” And tell us why Iran’s strategy is so great and thoughtful if even the Saudis are condemning the “uncalculated adventures” of Iran’s proxy army, Hezbollah. […]
Pingback by Dinocrat » Blog Archive » A lesson for war — 7/14/2006 @ 5:21 am
[…] The Israelis have given no indication they are ready to topple the Assad regime. The operative phrase should be: “No targets are immune.” […]
Pingback by Austin Bay Blog » Israel ties defeating Hezbollah to undermining Hamas/But Iran’s mullahs and Syria’s dictators are the problem — 7/15/2006 @ 9:37 am
[…] Austin Bay makes a case for an Israeli strike on Iran: The madmen do not gain if Israel decides to launch a relentless, multi-front offensive, that includes an Iranian front. […]
Pingback by War in Israel Roundup - America at war blog — 8/15/2006 @ 9:58 am