Austin Bay Blog

Via StrategyPage:

It’s a collision of international organizations inside Somalia, with Ethiopia a key player. The African Union (AU) and the UN are trying to work through Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to create stability in Somalia. Not so the Arab League. The Arab League wants the TFG to negotiate directly with the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). Meanwhile, several sources report that Ethiopia– an ally of the TFG– has added to its forces along the Somalia-Ethiopia border. Ethiopia is positioning “several mechanized divisions” near the border. Ethiopia can easily send battalion-sized contingents into Somalia for brief periods of time. Divisions –and especially “several divisions”– are something else entirely. Logistics is not a strong point for East African armies. Ethiopia is eight or more weeks away from being able to launch a sustained offensive force. Ethiopia could enter Somalia as an African Union peacekeeper. The question is, would Ethiopian action on behalf of the TFG benefit the TFG politically, or hurt it? The ICU would paint Ethiopia as an invader.