UPDATED: Israel ties defeating Hezbollah to undermining Hamas/But Iran’s mullahs and Syria’s dictators are the problem
From the Houston Chronicle.
Two key excerpts from the article:
Israeli officials said a defeat of Hezbollah, a radical Shiite militia with strong ties to Syria and Iran, would send an important message to the region and would help Israel in its efforts to undermine the power of Hamas in the Palestinian Authority. They argued it would also help the weak Lebanese government assert control over the entire country.
…
Israeli officials said that their strategy was to diminish or destroy the power of Hezbollah, which has created “a state within a state” in southern Lebanon, and to ensure that the Lebanese army replaced Hezbollah on the border with Israel, as demanded by the United Nations.
“We’ve decided to put an end to this saga and to change the rules of the game whereby a terrorist organization that is part of the Lebanese government can push the region to the abyss,” said Isaac Herzog, a member of the Israeli security Cabinet.
Read the entire report.
Unfortunately, Iran has the petro-dollars to reconstitute Hezbollah– unless the Lebanese can act in concert with the Israelis to police terrorists using Lebanese territory. To truly police terrorists in Lebanon –which entails denying them logistics support as well as territory for bases– means regime change in Syria. Dealing Hezbollah more than a temporary defeat means terminating the Assad regime in Damascus.
No doubt about it– the Israelis can seriously damage Hezbollah. Reducing Hezbollah’s arsenals may reduce its local clout in Lebanon. But Syria promotes Hezbollah and Iran finances it.
The Israelis have given no indication they are ready to topple the Assad regime. The operative phrase should be: “No targets are immune.”
UPDATE: Al Hayat says Israel wants a “new situation.” And that means Syria may no longer play proxy war using Hezbollah. We’ll see.
Israel’s goal to cripple Lebanon?… The Israeli attacks on Lebanon go on for a forth day straight attacking more bridges. …
Trackback by Media UnCut — 7/15/2006 @ 7:37 am
I think that it is a safe bet to assume that the Isreal has taken Syria and Iran into account. They are a smart bunch and they have a solid track record.
Comment by yata — 7/15/2006 @ 7:38 am
Even though Iran (and to a less extent, Syria) are the real problems, I’m not so sure Israel is wrong to go after Hezb’allah now. If Israel fights Iran right now, they’ll actually be fighting all three at the same time. If they fight Hezb’allah now, then perhaps Syria next, then Iran, it seems like it would be easier. The others would be helping their side, but not outright fighting a direct war at the same time.
Comment by Bruce — 7/15/2006 @ 7:42 am
One would think that Damascus and Tehran would each shortly find that squirrels had somehow inadvertently gotten toasted in transformers in the respective city’s electrical generation plants, causing broad power outages. Certainly accidental.
Comment by sbw — 7/15/2006 @ 8:00 am
What’s wrong with “temporary defeat”? The history of the Middle East since the creation of Israel - from the standpoint of military conflict - has been one long string of “temporary defeats” dealt by Israel against various arab factions. That’s been part of the key to Israel’s survival so far, hasn’t it? There’s no practical reason why this can’t go on indefinitely - up to and including the point at which Iran poses a nuclear threat (assuming it doesn’t already). Israel’s restraint demonstrates patience, resolve and the wisdom not to bite off more than she can chew. It also shows her deep recognition of something that the rest of the world is now slowly comprehending: the destructive, hateful, cancerous nature of islamist fascism, and the true geopolitical aims it has engendered. No country sees this more clearly than Israel. As such, it is not in Israel’s best interests to broaden the range of targets when the rest of the world focuses more clearly on those targets with each passing day. Saddam’s Iraq was a perfect example of this. So it seems that the balancing act the Israelis perform is their best strategy: hit back hard enough to maintain military superiority in the region while waiting for the rest of the world to see that Israel is only the first of many targets on the islamists’ prospective list of conquests. The harder the islamists hit Israel, the more clearly the world sees them for what they are. Israel’s strategy is working and I think it will continue to work. The saddest aspect of this, however, is that it can’t prevent war. Because war - war pursued to its ugliest, most savage, most reprehensible extremes - is the basis for islamist realpolitik.
Comment by goy — 7/15/2006 @ 8:07 am
With Iranian revolutionary guards and Iranian missiles attached to Hezbollah, Iran is doing more than financing it. It looks to me like Iran is using Hezbollah as a forward base from which to destroy Israel. My concern is Nasrallah’s and Almondine-Jihad’s telegraphing of a “surprise” for the Israelis. If Iran already has an A-bomb, or Syria got Saddam’s WMDs while the UN dithered, especially binary nerve agents, there’s no way the US could stay out of the fray. We could be close to the abyss.
Comment by Larry Faria — 7/15/2006 @ 8:10 am
Yes, yes, yes - they key phrase is “means regime change in Syria.” The key to securing the North is having a stable Lebanon, and that requires the removal of the terrorist puppetmasters in Syria. If Israel truly is seeking to end this threat once and for all, it requires a brief journey to Damascus. Israel is apparently putting Syria on short notice - in a way they will be unlikely to fully comply with. The US presence in Iraq makes this course of action most inviting - Iraq is not a player, and US regional forces mean what happens in Damascus, stays in Damascus. (Heh, that’s a pretty good one…) Iraq may be dicier for a while, but if Israel is able to strike at the inbred Assad regime and facilitate it’s fall, and be in a position to dictate terms, then there is a chance there can be a dynamic shift in the areas security structure. Israel seems to be seeking the only sane regional strategy - peace through victory.
Comment by MEC2 — 7/15/2006 @ 8:44 am
Israel’s action may be an interesting boon in the context of our confrontation with Iran. By messily and loudly removing Hezbollah and causing the Syrian regime to have serious second thoughts about the amount of protection Iran can give them, the Israelis potentially remove two arrows from Iran’s quiver: their ability to threaten terrorist action, and a key ally. This strengthens our hand in Iraq, since our adversaries may lose the supplies they’re getting from Syria, and they would most certainly lose Hezbollah’s technical expertise on terrorism. By removing the threat of Hezbollah worldwide, this also reduces the potential costs of action against Iran proper in the context of the Iranian nuclear program.
Comment by Mycroft — 7/15/2006 @ 8:45 am
More on the Syria/Israel situation here: http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/007498.php
Comment by Jim,MtnViewCA,USA — 7/15/2006 @ 8:58 am
I suspect their analysis is: leave Syria alone, unless they can actually be drawn into the fight on the side of their Hizbollah allies and be seen, internationally, to have thrown the first punch. At which point, smash ‘em. What Israel politically can’t do is make like the aggressor.
Comment by Julian Morrison — 7/15/2006 @ 9:07 am
Iran may be the bigger problem but Syria provides the local base for terrorists to run in an out.
Comment by davod — 7/15/2006 @ 10:06 am
Austin: Isreal has apparently issued Syria a 72-hour ultimatum to dismantle Hizbollah, so I don’t think it is same to say that “given no indication they are ready to topple the Assad regime.”
Comment by Mark L — 7/15/2006 @ 10:15 am
Israel gives Syria ultimatum… As Israel ratchets up the number and intensity of military strikes into Lebanon Ynet runs This headline. The London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat reported Saturday that “Washington has information according to which Israel gave Damascus 72…
Trackback by The Real Ugly American.com — 7/15/2006 @ 10:17 am
Lebanon Asks for UN Cease-fire as Total Middle East War Looms… The government of Lebanon petitioned the United Nations for help in stopping Israeli bombings. This happens as all signs point to the war expanding into a broader regional conflict involving Syria and Iran. Meanwhile, the spreading conflict in the reg…
Trackback by Outside The Beltway | OTB — 7/15/2006 @ 12:10 pm
Lebanon Asks for UN Cease-fire as Total Middle East War Looms… The government of Lebanon petitioned the United Nations for help in stopping Israeli bombings. This happens as all signs point to the war expanding into a broader regional conflict involving Syria and Iran. Meanwhile, the spreading conflict in the reg…
Trackback by Outside The Beltway | OTB — 7/15/2006 @ 12:10 pm
Iran may have the money to reconstitute Hezbollah, but does it have the time? Its confrontation with the U.S. is going to be resolved one way or another within a couple of years. Iran cannot afford to have its proxy out of play during 2006-2007.
Comment by Trent Trost — 7/15/2006 @ 1:03 pm
[…] Courtesy of Austin Bay: […]
Pingback by NoisyRoom.net » Blog Archive » UPDATED: Israel ties defeating Hezbollah to undermining Hamas/But Iran’s mullahs and Syria’s dictators are the problem — 7/15/2006 @ 2:53 pm
I am not enough of a student of military affairs to know the answer to this. But several commentators here and elsewhere have talked about the dismantling of Hezbollah. How exactly are the Israelis affecting this? How are attacks on the bridges and airports dismantling Hezbollah? Clearly these are meant to limit mobility and resupply. But it doesn’t seem as though the Israelis are actually engaging Hezbollah militants. What else are the Israelis doing?
Comment by bpolsky — 7/15/2006 @ 6:39 pm
[…] These countries could be useful allies if at the very least they continue to stay out of the conflict, take measures to arrest jihadists in their respective countries who attempt to join Hezbollah or Hamas and provide intelligence to all of the other liberal democratic civilizations. […]
Pingback by The Wide Awake Cafe » Knocking the Props from Beneath Iran-Syria? — 7/17/2006 @ 4:54 pm
Stop Hesbollah, Easy, shoot the dog: stop the rabies. Bomb Syria and Iran. Problem GONE!
Comment by Jose Guzman — 7/29/2007 @ 12:59 am
In the next war we will destroy Israel altogether. There is absolutely no doubt that Muslims will be victorious in the end. Israel’s days are numbered, it’s a fake state. After destroying Israel, the US is next insha’Allah. I’m very optimistic.
Comment by Erdogan — 12/4/2009 @ 5:13 am