Austin Bay Blog

After Hezbollah’s attack on the Israeli outpost two weeks ago and the subsequent shelling of Israeli cities and towns, including Haifa, Israel’s third largest city, Israel has a unique opportunity to seriously degrade Hezbollah’s operational abilities in Lebanon and deal a strategic political defeat to the terrorist group. The question is, will they pursue it?

Locally, Israel has a stake in the democratic process in Lebanon and the disarming of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a direct threat to Israel’s national security and has demonstrated its willingness and capacity to launch missiles deep into Israeli territory. A stable, democratic Lebanon, a country with a long history of economic success and political freedom, reduces the threat from Israel’s northern border. And Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon have a direct effect on the situation in the Palestinian territories. The Palestinian terrorist groups such as Hamas, Al Aqsa Martyrs, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and others would be emboldened by a successful Hezbollah confrontation, or even a stalemate.

Hezbollah has a vested interest in subverting Lebanon’s political process. Locally, their power increases. Regionally, this fulfills the wishes of Hezbollah’s Iranian and Syrian masters. Iran wants to destabilize the region in order to assert its primacy over the Middle East and deflect attention from its clandestine nuclear program. Syria wants to destabilize Hezbollah as a pretext to reoccupy the country and regain control of their lucrative criminal and business enterprises. Both Iran and Syria long for the destruction of the Israeli state.

The political and military defeat of Hezbollah would strike a blow not only to the “A team of terrorism,” but to their Iranian and Syrian backers, and isolate them in the Muslim world and the international community. The Arab states of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have signaled their displeasure with Hezbollah’s disturbance of the political order and the relative peace in the region (the Palestinian issue never threatened to expand beyond the borders of Israel/Palestine and threaten the security of the Arab regimes).

While the Israelis have been surprised by Hezbollah’s military capabilities, Hezbollah cannot withstand a protracted Israeli offensive. This will come at a cost in Israeli soldiers killed or wounded, as the recent battles at Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jubayl have proven. At this time, the Israeli government is signaling it wishes to establish a narrow security zone (1 - 2 kilometers) inside the Lebanese border, and prosecute the battle via air. So far this has failed, and Hezbollah rocket continue to rain as far south as Haifa.

Israel can strike a mortal blow to Hezbollah and a psychological blow to the Palestinian terrorists, as well as strategic defeats to Syria and Iran. As Hezbollah also provides cross training and other services to al-Qaeda, a Hezbollah defeat will impact the other fronts on the war on terror. Israel has the ability to defeat Hezbollah, the question is do they have the will to persevere? If Israel delays, Hezbollah’s next attack will be far more sophisticated and organized. Hezbollah has transformed from a militia to an organized political and military force in the six short years since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. With an emboldened Hezbollah backed by confident Iran and Syria, Israel’s butcher bill will only increase.