Austin Bay Blog

 Tony Corn of the US Foreign Service Institute (hat tip realclearpolitics) writes a thoughtful and provocative essay.

Corn’s lede:

“Amateurs talk about strategy, professionals talk about logistics.” In the five years since the 9/11 events, the old military adage has undergone a “transformation” of its own: Amateurs, to be sure, continue to talk about strategy, but real professionals increasingly talk about — anthropology.

Great first paragraph — and ”anthropology” one reason the first book I have my university students read is Leblanc and Register’s Constant Battles. (Not the only reason, but one reason.)

Long excerpt –but a good sampling, I think of Corn’s essay:

Ironically, and Prussian fantasies notwithstanding, what the post-Gulf War American Army has come to resemble is the post-World War i French Army: In both cases, victory breeds complacency, and this in turn can lead to a solid but unimaginative army capable of holding its own against an equally solid but unimaginative opponent — but is not necessarily a match for an innovative military, be it in the form of the German “blitzkrieg” yesterday or Chinese “unrestricted warfare” tomorrow. No wonder that a particularly bold USMC colonel felt compelled recently to argue that the “Shock and Awe” doctrine could prove to be America’s twenty-first-century Maginot Line.15

As of this writing (August 2006), it is too early to tell whether Baghdad will be America’s Battle of Algiers — or Battle of Jena. But it is not too early to call for a Renaissance in Strategic Education — for military and civilians alike. In diplomacy as in academe and in the media, there is unquestionably a need for greater strategic literacy, and the military can play a constructive role; but by the same token, the military will have to free itself from the Clausewitzian straitjacket if it ever wants to make a significant contribution to grand strategy.

The Revolution in Guerrilla Affairs

Unlike his disciples today, Clausewitz was an attentive observer of the revolution in military affairs of his day. It so happens that this RMA was in conventional warfare (the Carnot-Bonaparte revolution), whereas that of today is in irregular warfare (Netwar, 4GW). Clausewitz, to be sure, was no stranger to irregular warfare; in fact, On War was initially meant as the first part of a triptych on conventional warfare, irregular warfare and tactics. But the fact remains that in the 10 volumes of his complete works, the least developed (quantitatively and qualitatively) topic remains irregular warfare. Every thinker, to be sure, is a product of his time and, as Raymond Aron observed long ago, it should not come as a surprise that Clausewitz could only conceive of guerrilla warfare in the form of the traditional (defensive) “guerre populaire” and not the twenty-century (offensive) “guerre revolutionnaire.” Be that as it may, it is not until the turn of the twentieth century that the conceptualization of irregular warfare will take a new turn, through the combined effects of the anthropologization of military theory (Calwell, Lawrence) and the militarization of revolutionary ideology (Lenin, Trotsky).16 Meanwhile, in the field of the conventional warfare, the traditional Clausewitzian emphasis on “annihilation” and “decisive battle” will find itself challenged by Delbruck and Corbett, while Liddell Hart will bring the debate on an altogether different plane: that of Grand Strategy.

If Mao Zedong marks a major turning point in the history of irregular warfare, it is because he blends the Western and Eastern traditions and offers the most comprehensive theory and practice of Guerrilla — leading General Beaufre to refer to Mao’s Long March in terms of “Grande Guerrilla.” Yet, in one fundamental aspect, Mao continues to view irregular warfare the same way as Clausewitz: Irregular warfare is merely a “support activity” for conventional warfare; there is no substitute for a conventional, “decisive battle” in the third phase of Mao’s people’s war.

If there is a real “Revolution in Guerrilla Affairs,” then, it is not to be found in Mao’s Long March, but in the French-Algerian War (1954-1962). By 1962, the Algerian FLN forces are reduced to 10,000 men, while the French regular forces include more than 100,000 Algerian volunteers. But through the clever use of media (in particular Nasser’s “Voice of the Arabs,” the al-Jazeera of the time) and high-visibility fora provided by nascent international organizations (the UN, the Arab League, etc.), the Algerian FLN, while thoroughly defeated militarily, will be able to level the playing field and — the asymmetry of political wills being what it is [17] — to prevail politically, in a way totally unanticipated by Mao.

Ouch. America is France. (Hey–the essay is intended to prod and poke.)

I certainly agree with this point about the nation-state (see this post from 2006 and this column)

One clear shortcoming of 4GW theory is the axiom of a “crisis of legitimacy” of the state. For one thing, the “post-Westphalian” rhetoric so common since the end of the Cold War rests on an idealized vision of the Westphalian order, during which sovereignty was in fact never as total as some would assume; conversely, of the 150 states that have emerged since 1945, the majority have never been real states but “quasi-states.” Too much emphasis on “terrorism” as a product of the “crisis of legitimacy” of the state is wrong not just factually but heuristically as well, in that it leads analysts to overlook the importance of terrorism as a “force multiplier” for the (actual or potential rogue) state. Simply put, the axiom of a “legitimacy crisis” is an impediment to an analysis of the various modalities of “war by proxy”.19 Similarly, too much emphasis on “dispersion” can lead one to overlook the fact that “swarming” campaigns — like the recent “cartoon jihad” — are driven by “deep coalitions” of states, IOs, and NGOs.

And another excerpt:

It is time to “bring the state back in,” lest the 4GW and Netwar discourses end up being afflicted with the same disease as Network-Centric Warfare: namely, the “tacticisation of strategy.” But the return of the state will not be synonymous with a return to Clausewitz. For one thing, the “state” is not the transparent, self-evident, ahistorical concept that some strategists all too often assume. In the days of Clausewitz, at any rate, the State was close to Fichte’s “Geschlossene Handelstaat;” today, it is closer to Rosecrance’s “Virtual State.” For another, as the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review puts it, the Long War will have to be waged across the proverbial DIME spectrum, now renamed DIMEFIL (diplomacy, information, military, economic, financial, intelligence, law enforcement). Old Carl may have had a few interesting things to say about counterinsurgency (COIN), but he never ventured beyond the military dimension (in short, and to put it in modern parlance: it’s COIN and DIME, stupid).

The bottom line: because wars are now waged along the DIMEFIL spectrum, the nonlinearity of war has increased exponentially.

Here’s a primer on DIME. (I think DIMEFIL is useful, but DIME arguably contains the FIL. The “I” in DIME was defined as information and intelligence. Adding the “L” is a particularly good reminder that legal systems and legal enforcement –or lack thereof– play a huge role in contemporary transnational warfare. )

Read Corn’s entire essay.

Here’s a link to UNRESTRICTED WARFARE. StrategyPage has had the link up for close to five years– and the link remains active. But then so does Unrestricted Warfare. (Intellectually and strategically active.)

I’ll include Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui’s thoughts on “asymmetry” from Unrestricted Warfare:

“Asymmetry” [fei junheng 7236 0971 5899] as a principle is an important fulcrum for tipping the normal rules in beyond-limits ideology. Its essential point is to follow the train of thought opposite to the balance of symmetry [junheng duicheng 0971 5899 1417 4468], and develop combat action on that line. From force disposition and employment, selection of the main combat axis and the center of gravity for the attack, all the way to the allocation of weapons, in all these things give two-way consideration to the effect of asymmetrical factors, and use asymmetry as a measure to accomplish the objective.

No matter whether it serves as a line of thought or as a principle guiding combat operations, asymmetry manifests itself to some extent in every aspect of warfare. Understanding and employing the principle of asymmetry correctly allows us always to find and exploit an enemy’s soft spots. The main fighting elements of some poor countries, weak countries, and non-state entities have all used “mouse toying with the cat”-type asymmetrical combat methods against much more powerful adversaries. In cases such as Chechniya vs. Russia, Somalia vs. the United States, Northern Ireland guerrillas vs. Britain, and Islamic Jihad vs. the entire West, without exception we see the consistent, wise refusal to confront the armed forces of the strong country head-to-head. Instead, the weaker side has contended with its adversary by using guerrilla war (mainly urban guerrilla war) [9], terrorist war, holy war, protracted war, network war, and other forms of combat. Mostly the weaker side selects as its main axis of battle those areas or battlelines where its adversary does not expect to be hit. The center of mass of the assault is always a place which will result in a huge psychological shock to the adversary. This use of asymmetrical measures which create power for oneself and make the situation develop as you want it to, is often hugely effective. It often makes an adversary which uses conventional forces and conventional measures as its main combat strength look like a big elephant charging into a china shop. It is at a loss as to what to do, and unable to make use of the power it has. Apart from the effectiveness it displays when used, asymmetry in itself is a rule of action suggested by the golden rule. Of all rules, this is the only one which encourages people to break rules so as to use rules. Also it is an effective prescription for methodical and well-balanced medical treatment for a chronic illness of thought.

Read what Unrestricted Warfare’s authors have to say about King Wu and Alexander the Great  (their discussion of “combinations”).

Why the heck not– the end of that section:

If it is said that combination was only a winning secret formula of a few geniuses, then consciously making combination the trend of a method of operations now is already becoming clearer day after day, and warfare is now being taken into an even broader and even more far-reaching domain; however, all of that provided by the age of technological integration leaves combination with more seemingly infinite possible space. It can be affirmed that whoever is able to mix a tasty and unique cocktail for the future banquet of war will ultimately be able to wear the laurels of success on his own head.

That, in part, is what Corn is examining — “combination” warfare in the global space of psychology, anthropology, technology, geography, economics, etc.

Here’s a full pdf of Unrestricted Warfare.