China says it can’t stop NoKo bomb
From The Australian — a frank and frightening assessment by China.
The lede:
WHILE the rest of the world looks to Beijing to stop North Korea from exploding a nuclear bomb, a leading Chinese analyst says it is too late — China cannot act without doing worse harm to its own interests.
“Basically, our country’s work of persuasion with the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) in the 12 years that the DPRK developed its nuclear program had been a failure,” writes highly regarded Shen Dingli, of Shanghai’s Fudan University.
“The DPRK considers its national interests to be greater than its relations with China,” Mr Shen says in his remarkably frank commentary, published in a newspaper of the official China Youth League and circulated yesterday by a North Korea-focused think tank, the Nautilus Institute.
Respected as probably the most independent-minded of China’s foreign relations experts, Mr Shen’s judgment that nothing can be done to stop Pyongyang becoming a fully fledged nuclear state deepened the grim mood in other capitals yesterday.
Grim indeed. Ultimately grim for Kim Jong Il’s pitiful regime and the long-suffering people of North Korea.
Japan will pursue offensive missiles and –one can feel the shudders throughout Asia– its own nuclear weapons.
Another excerpt:
China confirmed yesterday that President Hu Jintao would meet Japan’s tough-talking new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, on Sunday in a summit that now has a sharp edge of urgency.
Mr Abe yesterday repeated the demand that North Korea halt nuclear test preparations and promised: “Japan will work with the US, China South Korean and other countries concerned to respond to this situation.”
China knows this is very bad for business.
More of Mr. Shen’s analysis:
Mr Shen argues that the North Koreans are prepared to weather deeper trade and financial sanctions from the US, Japan and other Western countries because they believe that ultimately, the Americans will have to accept their nuclear-state status, as happened with India and Pakistan.
Though China and the other neighbours are committed to a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, Beijing can do little to prevent North Korea pursuing that logic unless it imposes harsh sanctions that risk forcing Mr Kim’s regime to go to war - or collapse.
The economic and security chaos accompanying a regime collapse is the most feared scenario in Beijing and Seoul.
Read the entire article.
Austin, There are other stories out saying that US Spy Sats have picked up NK underground nuclear test preparations. See this: http://194.6.181.127/eng/swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid=7128787 October 4, 2006 - 5:08 PM U.S. sees possible North Korea test site activity By Will Dunham WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has detected activity at potential test sites in North Korea indicating possible preparations for a nuclear test, a U.S. defence official said on Wednesday, as China urged restraint after the reclusive state said it planned a nuclear test. U.S. spy satellites have picked up unusual movement of vehicles and other activity at locations that might occur before an underground nuclear test, the U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. But the official said the evidence was not definitive and noted that because the North Koreans have never conducted a nuclear test, “we don’t really know what we’re looking for.” (snip)
Comment by Trent Telenko — 10/4/2006 @ 3:44 pm
China Can’t Stop NOKOR Bomb:… A top Chinese analyst says his country can no longer stop North Korea’s bomb. “Basically, our country’s work of persuasion with the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) in the 12 years that the DPRK developed its nuclear program had been……
Trackback by Pajamas Media — 10/4/2006 @ 8:39 pm
It’s a mistake to think that China has anything but its own interest in any situation. A nuclear NoKo can extract more money and UN guarantees to support itself. A collapsing NoKo, on the other hand, threatens China ala Kaplan’s Atlantic Monthly article. If the sick man of Asia can steady himself for a while on the gantry of a nuke, the US and allies are threatened and they can’t react as they might have pre-nuke, but China would seem to be unaffected. Additionally, a nuclear NoKo will turn South Korea into the 1970’s France. South Korea will bloom with pacifists chanting and marching against US imperialism while the Jungster teaches China something about useful idiots. 1. The US should leave South Korea now. 2. We need to learn how to play the deep game better.
Comment by bastiat — 10/4/2006 @ 10:45 pm
China can’t stop the North Koreans? I’m not buying. They love the idea of the Norks being a thorn in our side. They support North Korea’s transfer of missle technology to Iran and Pakistan. They can stop them anytime they want. They can take away their aid. They won’t.
Comment by Elroy Jetson — 10/5/2006 @ 12:29 am
Give me a break. China cannot allow NoK to be pacified. The Chinese need to have a frothing mad beast chomping at the heels (or throat…) of the US in order to advance their own position. China provides the vast majority of the supplies to NoK. China supplies nuclear materials and information to NoK. China is not a friend, it is not a “mutually beneficial trading partner” as many companies try to con us in to believing. China is an enemy of the US and everything the US was built on. And they prove it every minute of every day! And anyone who indicates anything even remotely contrary is supporting a war against the US. If you don’t like the US and the principals upon which it is founded, you may honestly say so and be an honorable enemy. Honorable enemies will be dealt with honorably. Those who wage a dishonorable war against the US should not be surprised when unconventional retaliation occurrs. That is not a threat, it a prediction.
Comment by Stanger73 — 10/5/2006 @ 2:01 am
Unless I misjudge history, Japan is probably about 48 hours away from a functioning nuclear weapon. As soon as NoKo tests, the Japanese will assemble the components. The only thing holding them back is their own tangled emotional reaction to nuclear weaponry.
Comment by Gandalin — 10/5/2006 @ 3:59 am
Implosion of the Tantrum-Throwing Child of Asia?… Thanks to this, that and the other, the attention of US politicians and news media is not focussed on East Asia. Neither, for various reasons, is the attention of anyone else; in Europe, for example, we’ve got immigrants and Afghanistan to worry abou….
Trackback by L'Ombre de l'Olivier — 10/5/2006 @ 4:15 am
bastiat, elroy and stanger have probably called this for what it is. Significant portions of China’s elite believe they are already at war with the U.S. — economically, politically and diplomatically. ‘Enemy #1′ and all that. Head fakes with North Korea are only designed to support that effort.
Comment by Vinny Vidivici — 10/5/2006 @ 6:06 am
I think those who are wary of the Japanese having nuclear weapons are wise: the Japanese do have a horror of nukes having been on the receiving end of them, but, having been on the receiving end, they have unique moral authority to use them in their own defense. Anyone who confronts a nuclear-armed Japan would be a fool not to expect that the Japanese would use nuclear weapons from the outset. End the war before it gets fairly started.
Comment by CatoRenasci — 10/5/2006 @ 6:26 am
We have, thankfully, plenty of GBIs for any North Korean missiles. And Kim Jong-Il seems to have trouble getting them up in the first place…
Comment by Harold C. Hutchison — 10/5/2006 @ 6:55 am
>>Unless I misjudge history, Japan is probably about 48 hours away from a functioning nuclear weapon. It’s more than just that. The Japanese space program’s space launchers mean that Japan could have an operational ICBM force larger than Israel’s inside of a year and rivaling the British SLBM force in size and throw weight in five years. All of which would be aimed at China and North Korea. Japan could also afford, and would build, an anti-ballistic missile shield to go with this ICBM force. It would start with American technology and latter use their own ABM technology. The Chinese letting North Korea test a nuke means that China cannot make a decision to protect its vital interests, AKA China does not have a functioning government.
Comment by Trent Telenko — 10/5/2006 @ 6:56 am
I think China’s holding back because a nuclear-armed Japan would push a lot of Southeast Asia into China’s orbit. There’s a bit of history there. When you consider that India and the US have been working on defense agreements, the strategy becomes a little more obvious. It’s a beautiful bit of wu-wei. The US acts. India acts. North Korea acts. Japan acts. China does nothing, and the rest of Southeast Asia flocks to it as protector.
Comment by Patrick Carroll — 10/5/2006 @ 7:01 am
China f’ed this up real good. They don’t seem to appreciate the degree to which Japan is motivated to oppose DPRK acquisition and use of nuclear weapons and long range missiles. Remember that North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japanese territory, the Japanese are well aware that they are in range. Also remember that Japan has a vibrant nuclear reactor program with over 50 online reactors including a fast breeder reactor. They have literally tonnes of Plutonium and highly enriched Uranium available and every element of the infrastruce necessary for processing nuclear fuel to support their reactors. Japan is, and has been, only a very short time away from developing nuclear weapons should it so choose, they have everything they need, for them it’s just a matter of “insert tab-A into slot-B” to perform the well-known engineering to put functional devices together. More to the point, Japan is not merely a few months away from developing functional nuclear weapons it can field, they are a few months away from amasing a sizeable nuclear weapons *arsenal*. They easily could be churning out dozens to hundreds of weapons a year, if they so chose. That’s just the tip of the iceberg. A nuclear armed Japan could lead the way (via proliferation or via precedent) to a nuclear armed South Korea, a nuclear armed Taiwan, etc. If China thinks this sort of thing is in its best interests, they are living in a fantasy world.
Comment by Robin Goodfellow — 10/5/2006 @ 7:49 am
That’s what happens when you let an amoral moron and a bunch of crooks and pedophiles control the government. Thanks, America. Screwing up the world, one country at a time.
Comment by Foreigner — 10/5/2006 @ 7:55 am
Hey Foreigner, Thanks for the boost. Just when everyone thought America was losing you point out how powerful we really are. Where do you live? We’ll come by and screw up your country as well in case we missed it on the last round. Unless you’re French, which means you don’t need any help in that department.
Comment by Pete — 10/5/2006 @ 8:40 am
Foreigner, I agree completely, but the Clinton years are in the past and I think it’s time we stop harping upon his abject failure wrt North Korea. Let’s move on and try to solve the problems rather than (justly) blaming those responsible…
Comment by Dwight in IL — 10/5/2006 @ 8:40 am
Patrick: Who specifically in southeast Asia is going to be pushed into China’s orbit by North Korean nukes? Not Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia or the Philippines, each of which face Chinese territorial challenges . Certainly not the Vietnamese, who have been fighting off successive Chinese invasions for more than 2000 years and who hate the Chinese with the same intensity that the Chinese hate the Japanese. Burma is already firmly within the Chinese orbit and Cambodia has no reason to fear a nuclear North Korea. And, to be clear, neither Japan, the Koreas nor China are in southeast Asia, but I assume you actually knew that and just succumbed to a bit of imprecise wording in your post.
Comment by Ming the Merciless Siamese Cat — 10/5/2006 @ 9:18 am
The fear from China is that NK will eventually reunify with SK - and if NK is nuclear the new Korea will be nuclear. And to top that off, Japan will go nuclear. And if any country can build a nuclear missile with snazzy electronics that sneak through Chinese defenses better than the US/Israel - its Japan. If Japan really wants to push the edge, it can start exercises with Taiwan around the same time it starts its nuclear program.
Comment by gnownek — 10/5/2006 @ 9:36 am
While the Japanese will certainly react strongly to any declaration by the DPRK that they are, in fact, in possession of functional nukes and workable modified Taepodongs - especially under the new leadership of new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is viewed as more openly nationalistic than his predecessor Koizumi - I think it’s a mistake to assume that they’ll develop an indiginous nuke capability anytime soon. In 2003, the Stimson Center published a fantastic analysis of this possibility titled “Japan’s Nuclear Option: Security, Politics, and Policy in the 21st Century“. While it’s certainly just my opinion (based in part on a LAMP analysis I performed as part of my grad studies in Strategic Intelligence), I feel that it’s highly unlikely that Japan will take on the massive investments in terms of infrastructure improvements (their current launch vehicles are in NO way easily or quickly convertible to the role of ballistic missiles, and though they possess massive stores of reactor-grade material as a result of their use of fast breeder reactors, this material is not currently fissile. It will need some enrichment) and political damage control that would occasion their decision to actualize their massive latent nuke capability. They could certainly fashion a crude device (without a native delivery system) within weeks, should they so desire, but so long as the US strategic umbrella remains viable, and our two governments remain in close association (if anything, Abe is even more US-friendly than Koizumi), the potential cost remains too high to outweigh any strategic benefit that would arise from an indiginous nuke capability. I do think, however, that they will massively increase their conventional weapons stores and capabilities, as they’ve already begun to do. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces are extremely capable, and its navy is the third largest in the world; they fly F-15s and -16s, and possess a number of Aegis-type ships. Their forces work quite well with the US, and we’re capable of joint action of nearly any nature. Though it likely won’t include an indiginous nuke capability, Japan’s re-armament is well underway, and will almost certainly accelerate.
Comment by Jared — 10/5/2006 @ 10:17 am
China can’t stop the PNK from acquiring the bomb??? Well, how ought we respond? 1. Fifteen divisions of Red Chinese troops crossing the Yalu river in November of 1950 made the People’s Republic of North Korea China’s problem. We ought to tell China that if they’re not worried about a PNK atomic weapon — then we’re not either, because we will deem any use of atomics by the PNK an act of China! 2. If China isn’t worried about the PNK having the bomb, then surely they won’t be upset by Taiwan having them either.
Comment by Norman Rogers — 10/5/2006 @ 10:23 am
Trent Telenko: Agree with your conclusions. I look forward to seeing what the country that brought us cheap, relaiable automobiles and the Sony Walkman can do with ABMs and nuclear weapons. Sure am glad they are our FRIEND.
Comment by John Galt — 10/5/2006 @ 10:38 am
Good point, John Galt. Soon nuclear weapons will be small and cheap enough for the average nuclear family to own one.
Comment by Mitch — 10/5/2006 @ 11:35 am
So, NoKo is going to test a nuclear device soon and no one is going to do anything. At the same time, in the next couple of weeks, we’re going to bomb the nuclear facilities in Iraq, because they are working on a bomb. There are also probably any number of entities that would gladly sell anybody with the money a nice modern thermonuclear weapon. “What, me worry”-Alfred E Newman
Comment by reddog — 10/5/2006 @ 12:26 pm
Norman Rogers While you are in fact Correct … the Chinese leadership have a self-centered and many will argue corrupt (corruption being a rampant ChiCom issue) poin of view. It is best to play to that view in sealing off “thier DPRK” problem. For lack of a better context, with poor ChiCom leadership response … it is probably a good response by Japan toborrow to Beg from the u.S. or create a bomb from scratch and detonate one underground, within a week of any provacative detonation action by the North Koreans, also announce a crash program of a deep water Nuclear sub building. No one doubts they could do it and announce a co-operative agreement with Taiwan in their Sub Building program. The Japanese with help from the U.S. should announce this in the next week, if the Chinese don’t take decisive action with their North Korean feif. The Japanese have a hundred years of military and technological credibility. This obviously will completely rip the fabric of the Post WWII Japanese American pact of non-offensive for an American Shield, but would put pressure on the ChiCom’s to get off their corrupt asses and get back to work on their DPRK problem. It would create a crisis and anger alot of people both in the U.S. and the EU. Crisis short term pain, North Korean problem more or less solved, Long Term Gain. The Chinese have their hands full right now and just don’t want to write a bigger check to solve the NORK problem. Meanwhile, the economic warfare could be ratched up easily enough by threatening to invade Sudan with NATO “PeaceKeepers” and dismantle the OilFields for Guns program the Chinese have in High Gear. Could the the Chinese Communists seal the NORKS border, take over the Norks and feed their people ? At a far lower cost than disruption to their oil supplies from the Sudanese and other middle east suppliers. The big pink elephant in the room no one is talking about, — this will not get solved until the collapse or takeover of little elvis and his NORK band of evil half-wits.
Comment by Econ-Scott — 10/5/2006 @ 12:45 pm
[…] Courtesy of Austin Bay: […]
Pingback by NoisyRoom.net » Blog Archive » China says it can’t stop NoKo bomb — 10/5/2006 @ 6:05 pm
[…] The North Korean military is rallying to Kim Jong-Il. Diplomacy is stirring to stop its nuclear test, which may come off this weekend. But China refuses to stop North Korea from testing a nuclear weapon (h/t Austin Bay): WHILE the rest of the world looks to Beijing to stop North Korea from exploding a nuclear bomb, a leading Chinese analyst says it is too late - China cannot act without doing worse harm to its own interests. […]
Pingback by Hot Air » Blog Archive » North Korea nuke test — 10/6/2006 @ 9:19 am
Nukes and North Korea… North Korea has a thing for nuclear weapons. It wants them desperately. Far from spending its meager resources on improving food production for its starving citizens, L’il Kim wants nukes. And according to his minions, would love to use them on the U….
Trackback by A Blog For All — 10/6/2006 @ 7:50 pm
N.Korea has a right to have weapons, but unfortunately Kim is a ‘Butcher’ of his own people and therefore cannot be trusted. China secretly likes Kim but they wouldn’t be happy about the possibility of Japan having Nukes. As for a US conflict with NK, Kim wouldn’t know what hit him if he stepped out of line. He is intelligent but he is a nutter.
Comment by Samuel — 10/7/2006 @ 6:12 am
[…] China has announced they are totally unable to control NKorea (H/T Austin Bay), because the “DPRK considers its national interests to be greater than its relations with China,†Mr Shen says in his remarkably frank commentary, published in a newspaper of the official China Youth League and circulated yesterday by a North Korea-focused think tank, the Nautilus Institute. […]
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[…] And here’s the story that indicated China had resigned itself to a North Korean test. […]
Pingback by Austin Bay Blog » North Korea tests nuke — 10/9/2006 @ 6:38 am
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