A second NoKo nuke test in the offing?
As I wrote several days ago, we need to encourage North Korea’s nuclear test program. It burns up fissile material.
Key excerpt:
Satellite images indicate North Korea appears to be getting ready for a second nuclear test, officials said Tuesday, as the defiant communist regime held huge rallies and proclaimed that U.N. sanctions amount to a declaration of war.
China, the North’s longtime ally and biggest trading partner, warned Pyongyang not to aggravate tensions. The U.N. has condemned the Oct. 9 atomic blast, and U.S. nuclear envoy Christopher Hill told reporters in Seoul on Tuesday that another nuclear explosion would be “a very belligerent answer” to the world.
As the White House acknowledged that the isolated nation might try a second test…
Kim Jong-Il is a megalomaniac, but a calculating megalomaniac. He’s also paranoid. He now knows he has no friends. In an odd way I buy his claim that the UN sanctions package –as weak as it is– constitutes an act of war. The sanctions package is at least curling rope, if not a noose. He’s got a nuke. He also has a South Korean populace that now wants nuclear weapons. He has a Japan ready to re-arm. He has embarassed his Chinese neighbor.
The bitter irony of times is the ability of dictators to threaten neighbors with their own collapse. China and South Korea do fear the economic and social consequences of several hundred thousand (several million?) refugees.
N. Korea: U.N. sanctions are a declaration of war… North Korea said Tuesday it considered U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing the country for its nuclear…
Trackback by Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator — 10/17/2006 @ 6:46 pm
TO: Austin Bay RE: Au Contraire “The bitter irony of times is the ability of dictators to threaten neighbots with their own collapse. China and South Korea do fear the economic and social consequences of several hundred thousand (several million?) refugees.” — Austin Bay China doesn’t really give a flying flip about refugees. And North Korean refugees have nothing to do with Communist China’s support of North Korea’s nuclear development program. This ‘argument’ is a ‘red herring’. Regards, Chuck(le)
Comment by Chuck Pelto — 10/17/2006 @ 7:13 pm
Chuck, thanks for saving me the effort of pointing out the obvious. It is beyond me why intelligent people deceive themselves as to Communist China’s true nature: It is a communist tyranny, a kleptocracy, a vicious and murderous tyranny, a “booming” economic power only if you believe its own cooked books, a nation torn by its own internal contradictions, and the only realistic estimation of its relationship to North Korea is as puppet master to hand-puppet.
Comment by Bill Quick — 10/17/2006 @ 7:27 pm
“China doesn’t really give a flying flip about refugees.” Not as people, no. He said they fear the “economic and social consequences”, ie lots of hungry people pouring in….I think that’s his point, not that the Chinese govt feels bad for them or anything.
Comment by Bernie Herman — 10/17/2006 @ 7:37 pm
Suicide bombers and suicide dictators. Trotsky once said that if one wanted to live a quiet life, one picked the wrong century in which to be born. That was last century but this one looks like it won’t be too quiet either. Welcome to the 21st century.
Comment by SMGalbraith — 10/17/2006 @ 7:50 pm
What can be done to protect US military personnel in South Korea?
Comment by DRJ — 10/17/2006 @ 7:53 pm
China wants what many governments want: to expand their sphere of influence and minimize the interference of potentially hostile powers too close to their borders. They fear what most governments fear: being seen not to be in control, of external events or of their own people. I admire the Chinese government: they may be a Sopranocracy, but they watch out for their own national interests first and foremost. They will smile when they need to smile, and they’ll knife who they need to knife. And they’re definitely playing a balancing act at home; if they ever had the kind of iron-fisted control over their populace that Kim does (didn’t work so well in Albania, though) it’s gone now. I’m sure they’d be reasonably content to have the citizens of the PDRK die off quietly at home but should worse come to worst I’m sure they’d do the absolute minimum they could get away with - not because they give an aerial East Coast sexual act about the refugees but because they don’t want the bad press.
Comment by JEM — 10/17/2006 @ 9:19 pm
US military personnel in South Korea are not there to be protected, they are there to do the protecting. Major difference.
Comment by Mike James — 10/17/2006 @ 9:20 pm
The PRC feels the brunt of North Korea’s counterfeiting operations. The people who are most likely to be stuck with N. Korean counterfeit cash are mid level power figures in the CCP. This cannot be tolerated indefinitely. I kind of chuckle at the idea that the PRC does not care about refugees. If it did not, why have they been gearing up since at least 2003 to put in a “keep out” fence along the N. Korean border? Why have they recently accelerated their fence building program? The PRC, for their own reasons, do not want N. Koreans dragging down wages, causing increased unrest, and they certainly don’t like the tons of fake viagra, counterfeit cash, and illegal drugs pouring over the border. If N. Korea doesn’t cut it out, the PRC is quite likely to first do to Kim Jong Il what the Soviets did to Nicolae Ceausescu and then subsequently they are likely to do to North Korea what the Russians did to Moldova, ie destroy national rapprochement and stymie reunification. If there’s been anything about S. Korea’s sunshine policy that is defensible, it is that it creates ties that will be difficult for the PRC to sunder.
Comment by TM Lutas — 10/17/2006 @ 9:37 pm
I think JEM is right and Bill Quick is out to lunch. Bill, have you ever worked with Chinese? Have you studied China in any depth? The Chinese mentality is very very different from our own. Looking good is critical, really looking better than anyone else. To me the surprising thing is that ChiCom govt has not done more postering and ‘we’ll get to the bottom of this/solve this DPRK issue’ type acting. They’ve done truck inspections for trucks entering DPRK, but they promise to be very lax on prohibiting weapons technology from leaking out. Wonder why?
Comment by Rob Dejournett — 10/17/2006 @ 9:43 pm
Refugees fleeing North Korea to South Korea sound like excellent recruiting material.
Comment by Dave Hardy — 10/17/2006 @ 9:48 pm
Look, we’re already taking in hundreds of thousands of Mexicans a year. Why don’t we offer to take in the North Koreans who reach China? At least they won’t sign up for Aztlan fanstasies, La Raza membership, and Reconquista propaganda. It’ll defuse the ability of North Korea to threaten neighbors with a refugee crisis. It’ll create an expatriate class with the skills to help rebuild the North after the government collapses. It’ll be the humanitarian thing to do, too.
Comment by Warmongering Lunatic — 10/17/2006 @ 10:24 pm
Refugees can not flee North korea into South Korea. The border is physically blocked with assorted barriers and the most impressive mine fields in the world. Both sides have spent decades making sure whole armies could not get past it. Refugees certainly can not.
Comment by Michael — 10/17/2006 @ 10:30 pm
I think this is funny. I’m five miles from the border of North Korea right now, and the fact of the matter is that people do defect fom the North into the South alot more frequently than you might think. Futhermore is response to “China doesn’t really give a flying flip about refugees” The total opposite is true. The biggest fear for South Korea and China, is not nuclear war. They are not worried about that. WHat they are worried about is that if the North disbands, their borders will be completely flooded with people. It is their BIGGEST concern.
Comment by Mercedes — 10/18/2006 @ 1:07 am
Chuck Pelto - “China doesn’t really give a flying flip about refugees.” and Bill Quick - “It is beyond me why intelligent people deceive themselves as to Communist China’s true nature: It is a communist tyranny, a kleptocracy, a vicious and murderous tyranny,…” and Bernie Herman - Not as people, no. He said they fear the “economic and social consequencesâ€, ie lots of hungry people pouring in….I think that’s his point, not that the Chinese govt feels bad for them or anything.” Well, Bernie, in light of Chuck’s and Bill’s statements, and the fact that the Chinese are already building a wall, and the fact that they own lots of cheap and easy to manufacture machine guns and land mines,why do you think, “they fear the “economic and social consequencesâ€, ie lots of hungry people pouring in….” We’re not exactly talking the wussy, politcally correct, U.S. Border Patrol and the Mexican border here.
Comment by Outpost37 — 10/18/2006 @ 1:38 am
What can be done to protect US military personnel in South Korea? Tactical nukes; decapitate the regime and blow the guts out of the million man ant army as it begins to mobilize and move across the DMZ.
Comment by GEHill — 10/18/2006 @ 4:48 am
Possibly the Chinese will finally outsmart themselves, if their pet snake terrifies Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea into getting nukes of their own. Ending up ringed by nuclear powers each perfectly able to defend itself without calling on the USA would hardly be a triumph of astute statecraft.
Comment by chickenhawklittle — 10/18/2006 @ 8:07 am
Bribing Kim’s generals to have a coup ($1 mil each for up to 20? $100-500k for others who join late? $10-200k for other officers who join?), boot Kim, open for inspections/disarm — and try to copy S. Korea’s success. The US should promise $25 000 000 000 in Grameen Bank type micro-loans to N. Koreans ($1000 each), especially Army folk, to open new businesses — and to import Chinese & S. Korean products while setting up local production sites, especially for housing and local infrastructure.
Comment by Tom Grey - Liberty Dad — 10/18/2006 @ 8:07 am
Hmmm. 1. An influx of millions of starving North Koreans with little or no business or work skills would be disasterous for northern China. 2. With the DMZ it’s unlikely that South Korea would allow refugees to enter through the DMZ. 3. Past experience with North Korean defectors shows it takes about 10+ years of living in South Korea for the person to unlean habits gained from North Korean life and to fully adjust to a capitalist democracy. And it’s very expensive for the government to support a North Korean defector for that length of time.
Comment by ed — 10/18/2006 @ 11:19 am
Heh. You’ll never bribe the N Korean leadership out of power. They have, um, ancillary benefits that cannot be matched by any decent society, For instance: they get to round up the prettiest high school girls to keep as sex slaves. And for the sadists (and there are many) there are the interrogations! (I bet they giggle when they hear about our waterboarding controversy.) I do think people underestimate the liberalization of China. Folks, that genie is out of the bottle and ain’t going back in. Yes, they are still poorer than Mexico and much less free, but the people are starting to understand the empirical benefits of freedom, and that is very hard to unlearn.
Comment by TallDave — 10/18/2006 @ 12:44 pm
[…] “The bitter irony of times is the ability of dictators to threaten neighbors with their own collapse” [source]. Of course, it alludes to the Korean countries but it could easily also ring true for the Indian sub-continent. It also reminds me of suicide bombers who aren’t afraid to die; it can be quite difficult to dissuade them. […]
Pingback by Threatening with Collapse at Nerve Endings Firing Away — 10/18/2006 @ 12:52 pm
The bitter irony you point out is, I believe, what China and South Korea are most worried about. I am sure the fear of tens of millions of starving refugees swarming either the southern or northern border of North Korea keep many in China and South Korea up at night. It is truly amazing that Kim’s greatest weapon is his own incompetence and the reality of communism.
Comment by Dan Brass — 10/18/2006 @ 1:29 pm
China will just shoot any and all NorKs trying to flee across the Chinese border. Ya don’t think so? what about Tianamin square! The south may get an occasional line crosser but mass defections would be met by barb wire, mine fields and the guns of both NorKs and ROKS. Unless the NorKs herd their refugees across to blow holes in the mine fields and soak up gunfire for their own invasion. Who cares! they are way over there and I feel the same way about them as they feel about us.
Comment by Barry — 10/18/2006 @ 4:10 pm
[…] This post got me thinking… […]
Pingback by Blogger In A Strange Land » Blog Archive » Re: North Korea… — 10/18/2006 @ 7:46 pm
If this is war, it’s pretty pathetic. You can count on it that if Kim decides to go for broke, the U.N. sanctions will collapse like a cheap tent, and we’ll end up doing most of the fighting. I don’t know what to call this situation, but it sure isn’t peace. It’s one thing to be in a stalemate with the Soviets, but with Kim Jong Il? Meanwhile, the left says that the test was run using Plutonium and that this shows it was created during the Bush I or Bush II administrations. While the PDRK was refining Uranium after its deal with Clinton, it didn’t violate that agreement until now, making it Bush’s fault. How that does Clinton or Carter any credit still escapes me. What would a Gore administration have done when it discovered that they were violating the agreement?
Comment by AST — 10/18/2006 @ 8:24 pm
An expert on CSPAN denied there was any loophole where the North Koreans had a five year headstart to do what they wanted with the fuel rods; I have read to the contrary; does anyone know if post 94 framework whether the fuel rods were under lock and key and supervision or did the bad guys have the opportunity to process, subject to good behavior. Plus this expert said that the idea of enriching uranium never arose or crossed the mind of the negotiating parties, thus, this means to acquire fuel for bomb was not addresed; this seems preposterous. Any thoughts on this?
Comment by GEHill — 10/19/2006 @ 8:12 am
Didn’t see the C-Span presentation but (going from memory) I think the expert is correct; the rods were at least under (periodic?) surveillance (by IAEA?). Something happened to eventually cause the NorKs to boot out the IAEA, can’t remember the specifics now, I need a timeline. Republican dominated Congress comes into this somewhere after they were elected in 94, but they did go along with Clinton administration for awhile at least–(hey did appropriate the funds for the fuel oil to NorK, though the beginnings of the construction for the lightwater reactors were funded by South Korea and Japan (not the US)(if I remember correctly). And yes I think the agreed framework said nothing about any uranium enrichment or bomb development as US was evidently not aware of any NorK program at the time)! An amazing oversight in retrospect, but if one is inclined to “blame USA first” depending on your politics, you can certainly go along with “expert” arguments that technically the NorK uranium program did not violate the “letter” of the Agreed Framework. This is taking a US legal courtroom view of the matter, a continual tendency of Democrats using foreign policy to try to gain a domestic political advantage. One which our enemies are happy to study and then continually exploit.
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