A nuke dropped on your hometown
I’ve seen this analysis many times — what does a bomb do to Manhattan Island? What does bomb do to Boston? Right after the NoKo nuke test (which came in at roughly half a KT), a fellow in Austin, Texas asked me what a one or two kiloton-sized nuclear device would do to Austin if it landed on top of the capitol building. Here’s my rough guess: I told him (depending on the height of the burst, if it were an air burst) that the most destructive blast effects would likely be limited to downtown Austin, but the pressure wave and heat effects would threaten a much larger area. (A two KT airburst is, in nuke terms, rather small, but it is still a nuclear burst.) The blast would ignite fires throughout south and central Austin and –again, depending on height, weather conditions, etc– might ignite a forest fire on the western bank of Town Lake. I did not do a thorough analysis (this was a conversation on the sidewalk). However, I did take the US Army nuclear target planners course in 1974 so though winging it, I had some feel for the destructive capacity.
Josh Manchester looks at a recent RAND study of a ten kiloton blast on the port of Long Beach, California. The RAND study considers a ground burst (which tosses up a lot of radioactive debris).
Key excerpt:
Much of the infrastructure in the United States was originally conceived with national defense squarely in mind. The highway system is one example. When the interstate highways originally were built, one out of every five miles had to be straight in order to allow returning American bombers alternative places to land, in case their bases had been vaporized.
How might our critical infrastructure be protected today? One classic aphorism about defense planning of any kind is the idea that “one can’t be strong everywhere.” For example, it seems that our containerized and bulk cargo supply chains are extremely concentrated in several key ports – in other words, there are “single points of failure” in our supply chain systems. New ports can’t be created overnight, but if the entry of cargo into the US were very decentralized, it might mean that a nuclear blast would have less of a catastrophic effect on the economy; at the same time, it might be easier for nuclear devices disguised as cargo to enter the country. How does a homeland security planner deal with such paradoxes? Or should he? Should the private sector instead develop as it will?
Such questions are no doubt on the minds of many. Perhaps it’s time to start a national conversation about them.
Read the entire post.
Perhaps I’m blind, but there doesn’t seem to be a link to the original post. ED NOTE: Fixed. Thanks.
Comment by Anthony (Los Angeles) — 10/26/2006 @ 2:42 pm
I’m a conservative Republican and while I don’t think the Bush Administration is perfect, I don’t blame them for very much of what the conventional wisdom says has gone wrong in Iraq and elsewhere. However … I do not think the Bush Administration has done much to stimulate a national debate on issues like these. I understand why they haven’t but I think it was a mistake for them and for the country. The only way a democracy like the US really works is if citizens become invested in the result and, hopefully, the means to the result. We’re all worse off because the Bush Administration failed to foster debate - even if the most they could do was get Republicans debating.
Comment by DRJ — 10/26/2006 @ 7:35 pm
If that were to happen, the war on terror ends in two days, tops. All that would be left is to deal with the fallout - figuratively and literally.
Comment by Harold C. Hutchison — 10/27/2006 @ 7:04 am
If you really want to indulge your morbid curiosity, the DOD published a book entitled “The Effects of Nuclear Weapons” - I have a 1977 edition, I don’t know if there are later ones. I have see copies for sale on Amazon.com.
Comment by ray_g — 10/27/2006 @ 8:36 am
Check out this web site for an idea of nuke effects on a select group of US cities. it’s some pretty good work. http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html I suppose I should be glad that my home town (Atlanta) is not on the menu!
Comment by John DiMarco — 10/27/2006 @ 1:27 pm
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Pingback by NoisyRoom.net » Blog Archive » A nuke dropped on your hometown — 10/27/2006 @ 5:26 pm
I too have “The Effects of Nuclear Weapons”, 1977 edition. Try to get one with circular sliderule in the back. A book that is even more practical for citizens is “Nuclear War Survival Skills.” It was written during the Cold War so some things might need reconsideration for a terrorist nuke but is still a must-read. The most important take-away is about fallout. This can kill at 50 to 100 miles downwind. What you have to do is LISTEN to government predictions about what areas to evacuate and which ones to shelter. THe fallout path is usually a long “cigar” shape. If you are not under the cigar, SIT STILL. Don’t block the roads for those who are trying to escape the fallout or inadvertantly move into it. There are federal labs that can start putting out predictions and evacuation guidence within the hour following a burst. National Guard units will mobilize and gather field data to confirm. The risk of a nuclear explosion within the US is higher now than anytime since the 50’s or the Cuban missile crisis. It is still relatively small (
Comment by Whitehall — 10/28/2006 @ 5:02 pm
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Pingback by CaNN :: We started it. — 10/29/2006 @ 4:52 pm