UPDATED: Russia pulls plug on Iranian reactor
In the glacial world of diplomacy, this is “rapid climate change.” This is another diplomatic victory for the US, in the same league as Summer 2006 when the US got China to agree to sanctions on North Korea. China followed the money– and now so has Russia. “Follow the money” is shorthand for the evolving global trading system.
Here’s an AP report, which chronicles recent events and “the dispute over Bushehr and Iran’s nuclear defiance.” Note Russia denies a connection. Russia claims this is about Iranian payment defaults. It is, but it isn’t. Western Europe is a much more important Russian customer. Russia ostensibly objects to a European anti-missile defense system (an extension of the US system, with missiles in Poland and possibly Britain). Iranian nuclear-tipped missiles are the reason for the proposed limited system. Of course the best solution is to keep the mullahs from getting nukes.
Is this Russian withdrawal fatal for Iran’s nuclear program? In and of itself, probably not. The Russians could come back, if the Iranians provide sufficient cash and the guarantees Russia requires. The IHT notes:
Iran is already building a 40-megawatt heavy water reactor in Arak, central Iran, based on domestic technology. It is also preparing to build a 360-megawatt nuclear power plant in Darkhovin, in southwestern Iran.
But the mullahs have a lot to worry about, including high-ranking defectors and increasingly restiveness among Iranian ethnic minorities (Baluchis, Arabs, Kurds, and Azeris).
More here at CNN.
Russia warned last week that Bushehr – omitted from UN resolutions on Iran after Russian lobbying – would be delayed as Tehran had fallen behind on payments of $25m a month .
Other senior Russian officials said on Tuesday there was no point issuing ultimatums to Iran since these were “unproductive”. But they added Moscow had made clear it could not continue to defend Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear power unless Tehran took the steps demanded by the international community to prove that its nuclear programme was indeed peaceful.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE: The Russian move could mean stiffer economic sanctions and a more insistent inspection regimen. This report on Breitbart indicates at least some inspections are getting too close. The article focuses on the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Key excerpt:
The Security Council is to meet Wednesday to review a draft resolution against Iran agreed last week by the body’s five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — plus Germany.
New sanctions would include barring Iran from exporting arms and buying weapons such as missiles.
UPDATE 2: And a later report: Russia denies an “ultimatum” but expresses “worry.”
