Petraeus’ Pivtoal Report — a look forward
This week’s Creators Syndicate column, via StrategyPage.
A teaser:
Perhaps we are entering new historical terrain, where the commanding general’s pivotal strategic gambit is a media event.
And media event it is. With its certain long-term global import and short-term political impact, Petraeus’ report meets a hustling television exec’s primal requirement: drama.
In a recent post on the blog I listed som semi-quantifiable metrics — but note this:
But the gist of his message will be what military veterans call GUTINT — gut intelligence.
This week’s New York Times Tuesday Science section had an article on intuition – “gut reaction.” No, it’s not quite the same as GUTINT, but it is a good read.
Sample graf:
Dr. (Gerd) Gigerenzer, the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, is known in social science circles for his breakthrough studies on the nature of intuitive thinking. Before his research, this was a topic often dismissed as crazed superstition. Dr. Gigerenzer, 59, was able to show how aspects of intuition work and how ordinary people successfully use it in modern life.
And now he has written his own book, “Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious,” which he hopes will sell as well as “Blink.” “I liked Gladwell’s book,” Dr. Gigerenzer said during a visit to New York City last month. “He’s popularized the issue, including my research.”
Q: O.K., let’s start with basics: what is a gut feeling?
A: It’s a judgment that is fast. It comes quickly into a person’s consciousness. The person doesn’t know why they have this feeling. Yet, this is strong enough to make an individual act on it. What a gut instinct is not is a calculation. You do not fully know where it comes from.
My research indicates that gut feelings are based on simple rules of thumb, what we psychologists term “heuristics.” These take advantage of certain capacities of the brain that have come down to us through time, experience and evolution. Gut instincts often rely on simple cues in the environment. In most situations, when people use their instincts, they are heeding these cues and ignoring other unnecessary information.
The article discusses “investing by gut.”
Gigerenzer’s thesis: “When a person relies on their gut feelings and uses the instinctual rule of thumb “go with your first best feeling and ignore everything else,” it can permit them to outperform the most complex calculations.”
Read the discussion comaring rational analysis and “gut” intuition.
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run - Web Reconnaissance for 08/29/2007 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Comment by David M — 8/29/2007 @ 9:14 am
Colonel Bay, We know the gravity of this report. It’s something that we in the ‘Sphere are awaiting with literal baited breath, but I doubt the MSM will focus much on the report itself. This is going to be their opportunity to cherry-pick him to death. Knowing that he was going to issue his report on or about 11 or 12 September (I believe he is slated for an 11 September appearance before Congress), my wife and I did a pre-emptive column regarding the surge, it’s successes, and some of it’s problems. I think we’ve nailed this down, and we believe that when General Petreus returns, he will return with a report that will surprise detractors in Congress. It will contain success ont he military side, especially with regard to the ISF. It will contain updates on the political successes — both on the local and national level. And it will also contain the simple fact that the surge must be allowed to continue up to March, if not including the month of March, 2008, at the very least. Our column will appear here on 1 September under the column heading “Thorwing Down the Gauntlet”: http://commonconservative.com/ Thomas and Marcie Clark Mesa, AZ
Comment by Thomas Clark — 8/29/2007 @ 7:25 pm
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Comment by Steve — 8/30/2007 @ 6:58 pm
I’m for more gut - all this hard analysis will surely bring on defeat!
Comment by Donald Douglas — 8/30/2007 @ 11:43 pm
Delphi estimation procedures, which are well-established as scientifically valid, seem to rely a lot on this same phenomenon, only using groups to smooth individual errors in gut guesses.
Comment by Dean Esmay — 8/31/2007 @ 11:29 am
Today (Monday) on my blog I wrote a long — and hard-hitting — statement about the need for Republicans and Christians to welcome gays and lesbians and to support their efforts to gain equal treatment under the law. I apologize for the behavior of a segment of the evangelical community. I also mention your blog, along with many others. Comments are always welcome. steve maloney ambridge, PA http://camp2008victorya.blogspot.com I’ll do another column tomorrow . . .
Comment by Stephen R. Maloney — 9/10/2007 @ 11:46 am