Initial thoughts on Petraeus-Crocker testimony
After three hours of testimony — at times grueling testimony — I’ve some initial reactions. (As it is, I have to get ready to give a speech this evening.)
My first thought is MoveOn.org lost this political battle — the chumps went an “ad too far” with the paid newspaper ad (in today’s NY Times) personally attacking GEN David Petraeus as “General Betray Us?” Remember, the hard left riles at Coulter-style attacks calling them traitors. (I won’t even bother linking to the ad — I have a copy of the paper on a chair near my desk — it’s as hideous as it is stupid.)
REP. Illena Ros-Lehtinen’s use of the ad was tremendous political theater — or, more accurately, a political gesture in what is really the vast political play called “the 2008 US national elections.” (And I see Jim Saxton brought it up again, which led to another outburst in the chamber by leftist nutroots– Code Pink?.) The 2008 elections and the fight for political power in Washington are the powers that move the “the Washington clock,” which ticks at a very different speed than “the Baghdad clock.”
GEN Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are trying to realign those clocks, for the benefit of both the Iraqi and American people, and –I believe– for the benefit of everyone who wants a more peaceful and prosperous 21st century. “Realigning clocks” is adesriable political effect — “breathing space” in the US akin to the “breathing space” in Iraq Chairman Ike Skelton mentioned as the hearings began. (”The surge is designed to provide breathing space” for political reconciliation and development in Iraq.)
The hard left in America is afraid of GEN Petraeus, so they smear him. MoveOn.org and its ilk practice “the paranoid style” in American politics — and their smear is as noxious as the smear campaigns run by Senator Joe McCarthy (smears which are properly damned by the civil and decent).
The other big loser is Iran. GEN Petraeus’ and Ambassador Crocker’s detailed discussion of Iranian malfeasance is damning. (Petraeus and Crocker’s comments on the captured the captured Quds force and Hizbollah trainers was startling. At the moment GEN Petraeus is telling REP Donald Manzullo that Prime Minister Maliki thinks this kind of attack may be a greater long term threat to Iraq.)
The US Congress is sending a message to the Iraqi government– up to a point a useful one. The US isn’t a colonial power. There is a limit to US commitment. However, some of the attacks on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki strike me as political posturing. Some of these same congressional complainers once claimed the US had suffered a military defeat in Iraq — now they have moved to attacking the Iraqi political process. In an ironic way, that’s progress. It indirectly acknowledges that Iraq now has an open political process where the Prime Minister can be removed. Compare this to the situation that existed in say, March 2003.
Ike Skelton’s comment when GEN Petraeus’ microphone failed to work is something of a metaphor both for Washington and Baghdad: “Are we fixed yet?”
That mike failure — as incidental as it was, and as easily solved as it was– is a useful reminder. General Murphy is always at work. If it can go wrong it will. Murphy’s Law affects everything but it rules warfare. War is the effort where everything goes wrong — Clausewitz’ concept of friction recognizes this. It’s why perseverance and will are the traits of victors.
I’ve dealt with Iraq’s creaky infrastructure –it’s frustrating. But from now on every mid-level Iraqi ministry is going to smile when a US diplomat or reporter asks him how his reconstruction and maintenance operations are going. The sharp tongued will say: “Our parl,ament’s microphones work.”
Oh well.
General Petraeus said many important things. I don’t have a transcript, but I do have some rapidly typed notes. The material in quotation marks is direct quotation or near direct– material outside quotation marks is a paraphrase.
“Military objectives of the surge are by in large being met…Coalition and Iraqi security forces have achieved progress in the security arena.”
“One reason for decline is that coalition and Iraqi forces have dealt significant blows to Al Qeada and its affiliates in Iraq…We have gained the initiative in many areas. We have disrupted many Shia extremists…caught the heads of Iranian extremist groups and Lebanese Hizbollah (trainers) working for Iran in Iraq.
“Iraqi security forces have continued to grow and shoulder more of the load” though violent sectarian actors remain a problem.
The coalition has used “Non-kinetic means to exploit opportunities provided by our kinetic activities…” The big plus in this effort is the “arrival of additional provincial reconstruction teams.” [Petraeus and Crocker later add at the number of PRTs has increased from ten to 25 since the surge began.]
The “most significant development in the last six months is likely tribes and local citizens rejecting Al Qaeda and other extremists…(Anbar) is a model of what happens when local leaders and citiziens reject Al Qaeda and its ideology.”
GEN Petraeus also said he was basing his recommendations on “more than gut” and cited several metrics that he thought demonstrated incremental progress — weapons caches, drop in attacks, etc. (Finding more weapons caches are, in my view, an indication that intelligence has improved and in some places “local confidence” is increasing– people turn in the terrorists and the caches because they are confident Iraqi security forces will protect them.)
In his operational assessment Petraeus concludes “that military aspects of the surge have achieved progress and momentum…” but “Mission focus on…population security alone will not achieve our objectives…” The mission still “Requires conventional forces as well as speial operations forces…” (meaning the US still cannot move to a “support only” role.)
A “strategic consideration”: “political progress will only take place if sufficient security exists.”
Petraeus also recommends “…a draw down of surge foces in Iraq” to 16 brigade combat teams (BCTs) by July 2008. (That’s a pre-surge level.)
“A premature draw down of our forces would likely have detrimental consequences…” These include a “degeneration” of Iraqi security forces, Al Qaeda regaining ground, “a marked increase in ethno-sectarian displacement,” and “exacerbation of already challenging regional dynamics, with respect to Iran…”
Ambassador Crocker then testified.
He began with several riect, tough-minded statements:
“I intend to demonstrate that it is possible for the US to see its goals realized in Iraq “and Iraqis taking control…A secure stable democratic Iraq at peace with its neighbors in my view is attainable.”
The trend (in Iraq) is upwards “though the slope of that line is not steep.” Those trend lines will be “punctuated by setbacks as well as achievements” and continuing the process “will require substantial US involvement.”
And this remarks is the truth rendered as epigram:
There will be “no single moment when we can claim victory. Any turning point will likely be recognized in retrospect…”
Likewise: “Iraq is experiencing a revolution not just regime change…It is only (by) understanding this can we appreciate the situation in Iraq…”
I’ve got to cut this post off. That revolution Crocker mentions is a strategic revolution that benefits the civilized world.
I wrote this in February 2003:
Removing Saddam begins the reconfiguration of the Middle East, a dangerous, expensive process, but one that will lay the foundation for true states where the consent of the governed creates legitimacy and where terrorists are prosecuted, not promoted.
That is what Ambassador Crocker means by the Iraqi revolution.
UPDATE: One other quick thought — Iraq has become the strategic and operational graveyard for Al Qaeda. Petraeus and Crocker have not overemphasized the importance of Sunni tribes turning on Al Qaeda. This is “huge news” in the ideological battle with Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda’s harsh demands on the tribes proved to be too much. (The cigareete ban has been discussed in several venues — I see Faoud Ajami mentioned it in the Wall St Journal this morning. Al Qaeda even failed sex –see this column for details.)
That strategic trap for Al Qaeda may not have been laid by the Bush Administration, but a few analysts saw it (from January 2003).
UPDATE 2: In a torrent (surge?) or words a nervous REP Kathy Castor delivers the left-wing of the Democratic Party’s talking points.
Makes me sick For the past several days, Democratic representatives, senators, and their allied groups have been trying to shape the American public’s conclusions about the efficacy of the surge strategy before General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker could even giv…
Trackback by Public Secrets: from the files of the Irishspy — 9/10/2007 @ 5:45 pm
The Move-on.org ad is one of the great political blunders of the recent past. Unreal. To watch the US Congress, with its unending politically based arguments over things that don’t matter, chastising the Iraqi politicans because they haven’t reach complete agreement on everydamnthing in “Washington Time” is one of the great ironies of the recent past. Scrumall.
Comment by AF Dad — 9/10/2007 @ 5:58 pm
Col Bay — from a fellow Austinite, please, please, please, please change that font!!! It’s impossible to read it….. I have had to read your report in three different parts….. ’cause my eyes get so confused in attempting to read it, I’ve had to go elsewhere, clear my eyes, and come back! Spaces run into letters, letters run into spaces. It looks like you are attempting to mimic W.E.B. Griffith writings, where he includes dispatches between officers in his writings. The font Times Roman was created for a purpose. During WWII, the London Times needed to make the size of the paper smaller because a wartime paper shortages. Hence, they needed a font that could be small, but still be easy to read. Thus, we got the serif font, because the eye could more easily follow the curving in the letters. Learn a lesson from the London Times, during war. Find a serif font, that guides the eye across the words, rather than a font that requires the eye to stop, attempting to distinguish a letter from a space. You’ve basically lost me as a reader, I click to you, see that font, and well, give up. But tonight, your thoughts were important to me, I made the time to read tehm, and thus, my response to you. Thanks
Comment by Sherry — 9/10/2007 @ 6:01 pm
Sir, when things go wrong in warfare, I think back about what I read about the US Navy in the Solomons. The will and tenacity needed to send more cruisers and destroyers - and battleships - into Ironbottom (Savo) Sound and continue holding on against a tenacious enemy is the same thing. Lessons are learned, and eventually a Moosbruger, Burke, or Halsey appears and shows what can be done. Same here. Mistakes are made (no slur on those who went first), lessons are learned, and when applied, the results are there to be seen. The enemy here, like the IJN, did not have the material to go head to head, they did not have enough skilled people survive to pass on the lessons learned, and when the cascade began they could not stop it. Eventually in this struggle (if it has not happened already) there will be an Empress Augusta Bay, where in retrospect we will know that here, clearly, all of the advantages passed to us. (I’d write something more, but i think I’ll wait now for things to play out here and on the field. And anyway, everything I could write has been written - wait, and see.)
Comment by Mikey NTH — 9/10/2007 @ 6:23 pm
Sherry, I don’t knw if you will come back and read the comments, but your browser ought to be able to enlarge the text size. For Safari Mac, use Command+ (the “+=” key) - it’s the same for Firefox, I think. I don’t know what the equivalents are for Windows browsers but it’s there.
Comment by Lola LB — 9/10/2007 @ 6:39 pm
I’ve been saying for a while that the paranoid style in American politics, that Richard Hofstadter placed accurately on the right in 1962, has migrated and is firmly entrenched on the left. As evidenced by those screaming Code Pink maenads being ejected from the chamber.
Comment by Zhombre — 9/10/2007 @ 7:14 pm
The trendlines in Iraq have been positive for some time… getting critical infrastructure up and running in local areas was a large part of that, as well as just going after the killers. When the killers went after the tribal chiefs, they had sealed their fate: Iraq is not divided by sect but affiliated by tribe - blood is thicker than religion as tribes cross sectarian bounds. In AUG-SEP 2006 the Anbar tribes turned, by NOV 2006 it was showing results, by JAN 2007 actually looking to re-open factories in Ramadi was possible to do. Clear out the killers, get basic infrastructure up and then the higher level manufacturing can start - and that means employment. That has happened in a number of cities and Baqubah was critical as it was the center of Iraqi agriculture. The flour mills were open within a month of driving the insurgents out… and that means that Iraq now can get its agricultural sector going… more jobs… Unemployment can now be understood, where it happens and why, and measured. Until mid-2006 that was guess work. By creating security the local governments can stand up and hold the National accountable for things they don’t do. You cannot centralize everything, like Saddam did, and mayors that now feel that they can and *will* accomplish things, have the confidence to step up for their folks. Iraqi Army training has been slow, steady and requiring combing through, and yet it is being stood up while fighting in their own country to save it. Watching video from Michael Yon and reading the accounts of others, the character of the IA is coming forward as an integrated fighting force. It will be a decade until they have a fully operational system for keeping an NCO Corps that is reliable, but the ones moving up through the ranks *now* are more than just survivors: they are true leaders. Like much else in Iraq, the IA is still figuring this new way of doing things out. A real market economy standing up along with mass media and a court system that judges based on the law, not a dictator’s whim. From top to bottom Iraqi’s are learning what it takes to hold things together and it is damned hard work. The reward of seeing your family and children unthreatened by terrorists of all stripes makes that work worthwhile. For the first time in over three decades, Iraqi civil society is returning and now they get to explore just what it means to be an Iraqi. My deepest thanks to my fellow countrymen in the Armed Forces! Only Americans would dare so much in so little time. And get criticized for it.
Comment by ajacksonian — 9/10/2007 @ 7:44 pm
Lola LB — I thank you for your suggestion, but the size of this text has nothing to do with the readability of this font. And… I’m not the first one to suggest to Col Bay that there is a problem….. I remember reading another thread awhile back, suggestions that it get changed. The biggest problem is…. look at the spacing between letters. There isn’t any. Letters like i’s just get lost when bumped up next to the preceding letter. It’s better in the comments section, but horrid in Col Bay’s words. (Admitting, I do have some publishing background, so readability in our business is key) And know this, before I get flamed, I’m from Austin… and I’ve been reading Col Bay in our local “liberal” newspaper for years, that I’ve often wondered, how he continues to get published by them? And I smile each time I see on the editorial page, his byline. I do admit, it’s been missing lately…… and I’ve been missing his words. But, the font has got to go!
Comment by Sherry — 9/10/2007 @ 10:22 pm
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run - Web Reconnaissance for 09/11/2007 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often. Today highlighting 9/11 posts, along with other must read info from around the net.
Comment by David M — 9/11/2007 @ 10:32 am
Every September, I recall that is more than half a century (62 years) since I landed at Nagasaki with the 2nd Marine Division in the original occupation of Japan following World War II. This time every year, I have watched and listened to the light-hearted “peaceniks” and their light-headed symbolism-without-substance of ringing bells, flying pigeons, floating candles, and sonorous chanting and I recall again that “Peace is not a cause - it is an effect.” In July, 1945, my fellow 8th RCT Marines [I was a BARman] and I returned to Saipan following the successful conclusion of the Battle of Okinawa. We were issued new equipment and replacements joined each outfit in preparation for our coming amphibious assault on the home islands of Japan. B-29 bombing had leveled the major cities of Japan, including Kobe, Osaka, Nagoya, Yokohama, Yokosuka, and Tokyo. We were informed we would land three Marine divisions and six Army divisions, perhaps abreast, with large reserves following us in. It was estimated that it would cost half a million casualties to subdue the Japanese homeland. In August, the A-bomb was dropped on Hiroshima but the Japanese government refused to surrender. Three days later a second A-bomb was dropped on the city of Nagasaki. The Imperial Japanese government finally surrendered. Following the 1941 sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, a Japanese admiral said, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant…” Indeed, they had. Not surprisingly, the atomic bomb was produced by a free people functioning in a free environment. Not surprisingly because the creative process is a natural human choice-making process and inventiveness occurs most readily where choice-making opportunities abound. America! Tamper with a giant, indeed! Tyrants, beware: Free men are nature’s pit bulls of Liberty! The Japanese learned the hard way what tyrants of any generation should know: Never start a war with a free people - you never know what they may invent! As a newly assigned member of a U.S. Marine intelligence section, I had a unique opportunity to visit many major cities of Japan, including Tokyo and Hiroshima, within weeks of their destruction. For a full year I observed the beaches, weapons, and troops we would have assaulted had the A-bombs not been dropped. Yes, it would have been very destructive for all, but especially for the people of Japan. When we landed in Japan, for what came to be the finest and most humane occupation of a defeated enemy in recorded history, it was with great appreciation, thanksgiving, and praise for the atomic bomb team, including the aircrew of the Enola Gay. A half million American homes had been spared the Gold Star flag, including, I’m sure, my own. Whenever I hear the apologists expressing guilt and shame for A-bombing and ending the war Japan had started (they ignore the cause-effect relation between Pearl Harbor and Nagasaki), I have noted that neither the effete critics nor the puff-adder politicians are among us in the assault landing-craft or the stinking rice paddies of their suggested alternative, “conventional” warfare. Stammering reluctance is obvious and continuous, but they do love to pontificate about the Rights that others, and the Bomb, have bought and preserved for them. The vanities of ignorance and camouflaged cowardice abound as license for the assertion of virtuous “rights” purchased by the blood of others - those others who have borne the burden and physical expense of Rights whining apologists so casually and self-righteously claim. At best, these fakers manifest a profound and cryptic ignorance of causal relations, myopic perception, and dull I.Q. At worst, there is a word and description in The Constitution defining those who love the enemy more than they love their own countrymen and their own posterity. Every Yankee Doodle Dandy knows what that word is. In 1945, America was the only nation in the world with the Bomb and it behaved responsibly and respectfully. It remained so until two among us betrayed it to the Kremlin. Still, this American weapon system has been the prime deterrent to earth’s latest model world- tyranny: Seventy years of Soviet collectivist definition, coercion, and domination of individual human beings. The message is this: Trust Freedom. Remember, tyrants never learn. The restriction of Freedom is the limitation of human choice, and choice is the fulcrum-point of the creative process in human affairs. As earth’s choicemaker, it is our human identity on nature’s beautiful blue planet and the natural premise of man’s free institutions, environments, and respectful relations with one another. Made in the image of our Creator, free men choose, create, and progress - or die. Free men should not fear the moon-god-crowd oppressor nor choose any of his ways. Recall with a confident Job and a victorious David, “Know ye not you are in league with the stones of the field?” Semper Fidelis Jim Baxter Sgt. USMC WW II and Korean War Job 5:23 Proverbs 3:31 I Samuel 17:40 http://www.choicemaker.net/
Comment by Jim Baxter — 9/11/2007 @ 12:12 pm
One of the critical,basic truths about this conflict is the validity of the strategic vision of Iraq as a battleground against worldwide IslamoFascism. The unreconcilable wing of Islam has bought into the idea that the US Devil must be defeated in Iraq. We stay there, they come, we kill them. Just think how much havoc would have been visited worldwide if not for the difficultythe IsloFasia has in seeing beyond this battleground. As far as fonts go, don’t buy into the idea of switching to Times Roman. The conspirator lackeys in the Bush White House are trying to hide the truth from the American People by using fonts that make it impossible to read between the lines!
Comment by Scott Sterling — 9/11/2007 @ 1:37 pm
I hate to weigh in on such a trivial thing, but Sherry is right, the font gives me a headache too. I won’t stop reading because of it, but…
Comment by Mark H. — 9/11/2007 @ 4:32 pm
The turning of the Sunni sheikhs against AQI in Anbar is reminiscent of what happened to the New People’s Army in the Philippines. People just got tired of terrorism. The thing now is to keep the pressure on, and not give AQI any time to recover. What the dolts in Congress are missing is that this is a huge defeat for al Qaeda, period. A bunch of Sunni Muslims have turned against an insurgency run by other Sunni Muslims on behalf of, supposedly, Sunni Muslims. Somehow, I don’t think this is what UBL had in mind.
Comment by Rich — 9/14/2007 @ 6:55 pm