UPDATED: Hugh Hewitt Program Today: More on Strategic Overwatch
I will be on Hugh Hewitt’s national radio program today discussing “Scenario 8,” which is the “Strategic Overwatch” scenario in ArenaUSA’s “Update” video. (Click “Guest Login” and have immediate access to the majority of the programs inside.) If the Hugh Hewitt show is not carried on the radio in your area, you can listen online at http://krla870.townhall.com/. (At the moment I am scheduled to be on at 6:20 PM Central Time, 4:20 PM Pacific Time).
Yes, Strategic Overwatch is a limited victory for the coalition forces– though arguably a huge victory for Iraqis. Radical? I don’t think so. Progress in Iraq has either been ignored or disparaged –we’ve suffered from the narrative of doubt. Now, even Obama may be “refining.” For the record, the UPDATE video was shot in Los Angeles in mid-May — so it pre-dates the sudden “narrative of optimism.” Note that the scenario includes several “enemy” contingencies– including one involving Iran.
The Iraqis are clearly gaining confidence — the Iraqi “demand” that the US withdraw troops is a statement of political confidence It is also a a well-hedged statement, since Iraqi National Security Adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie that U.S. withdrawal was “conditioned on the ability of Iraqi forces to provide security…”
Here are three of the elements drawn from the “Scenario 8″ slide in ArenaUSA’s on-line presentation:
Assumptions: U.S. is in Iraq for the long haul; Iraqi political progress continues.
Time to Develop: Could emerge by mid-to-late 2009, fully fledged by 2011.
Related Events: Iraqi Army continues to re-arm and modernize; Iraq and the U.S. agree to a “long range cooperation agreement” the Iraqi people see as advantageous to Iraq; the “squeeze” on the PKK continues; Iraq begins to attract steady and sustained private investment; members of the Arab League begin forging stronger political and economic ties with Iraq. (copyright Austin Bay and TheArenaUSA.com)
Over the past ten weeks I’ve received several comments from the Arena’s feedback box. ArenaUSA decided to use the “Austin Bay Channel” as the beta-test. At least three other Arena Academy channels will be coming on-line during the next month: Annie Jacobsen, Frank Gaffney, and Dr Robert Mundell (Nobel Prize in Economics 1999).
As for full Arena registration (beyond guest login)– registering gives viewers full access to all content, early viewing of featured programs, polls, invitations, updates and the opportunity to help shape Arena programming.
And I’ll add this thought– if Hugh and I have time I’ll discuss the new Arena series “Over the Horizon” (OTH).
UPDATE: The AP quotes LTG James Dubik’s congressional testimony:
The general who led efforts to train Iraq’s army and police units said today that progress is mixed and long-term U.S. help is needed.
Army Lt. Gen. James Dubik said Iraq’s security forces have grown from 444,000 to 566,000 since he assumed command of the Multi-National Security Transition Command in June 2007 and they are better able to execute operations on their own.
And:
When pressed by panel chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., the general said he does expect Iraqi ground forces to be operating proficiently by the middle of next year, possibly as early as April.
Dubik’s testimony is appropriately circumspect. However, his “possibly” April 2009 date (”middle of next year”) is in line with my Strategic Overwatch scenario.
