UPDATED: Russia’s Invasion of South Ossetia: The Kosovo Precedent In Play?
Consider the looming diplomatic argument. If protecting Kosovar Albanians elicits a NATO invasion, as it did in 1999, and in the case of South Ossetia Russian peacekeepers operating under international aegis were already on the ground and involved in the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict (which they were), what is the gripe?
After Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, separatism resulting from international action to protect an ethnic minority has an imprimatur.
That is one interpretation of Russia’s argument that Kosovo should never have been allowed to unilaterally separate from Serbia, which it did earlier this year.
Russia’s invasion of Georgia’s separatist South Ossetia region is certainly renewed warfare in the near abroad. It is also a violent reminder of how unsettled Eastern Europe remains in the post-Cold War era.
For Moscow’s foreign policy purposes, the troubles in Georgia fit “the Kosovo frame” – a minority group beset by an “ethnic nationalist authority” attempting to regain control.
I’m pointing this out not because I believe Georgia is Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbia. It most certainly is not. . Georgia a democratic state “working its way West” politically and economically. These are major qualitative differences between contemporary Georgia and Serbia in 1999.
However, Russian diplomats warned for the last eight years claimed “the Kosovo precedent” would affect around 200 regions or territories in nations around the world. That’s a nice round figure and it may in fact be low.
Moscow’s insisted that Kosovo would establish a “separatist precedent” for spinning statelets from sovereign nations. Interestingly enough, both Romania and Greece oppose a “unilateral” Kosovo independence. Spain, with its Basque separatists, wasn’t enthusiastic.
Securing Russia’s borders and protecting the interests of ethnic Russians are traditional Russian concerns. Georgia’s ethnic Russian community and the ethnic Russian community in Moldova’s separatist stately, Transdniestr, are causes celebre for the Kremlin’s increasingly muscular regime which is now hell bent on reasserting Russian power.
I believe Moldova remains the trigger for a new Ice Era in relations with Russia. I can’t call it a Cold War but Moldova and its troubles with Transdnisetr, immediately involve NATO. Romania is an active member of NATO and shares a border with Moldova Moldova is now an independent nation but was once a Romanian region. In between it was a Soviet socialist republic. Its current government “looks West” to the European Union and NATO—in part because it fears renewed Russian empire building.
Georgia shares a NATO land border — with Turkey. (NOTE: In original post I had no land border. Writing late at night.) It is an ally of the US. But in Georgia’s case it if “difficult to get there from here,” even in the US wanted to respond militarily. (Check the map.)
The Russians also claim Georgian allowed Chechen rebels to use base camps in Georgian mountains. Since the early 1990s Russia has also backed ethnic Russians in Georgia’s separatist Abkhazia region. In late July 2008 Russia pulled about 400 of 2,500 peacekeeping troops from Abkhazia—but given the war in South Ossetia expect the Russian’s to reinforce Abkhazia. At the minimum Russian military control of Abkhazia is a post-conflict bargaining chip
And Russia has beven bigger chips. This is tough for Georgia, but Russia that expects Europe to accede to Russian political and economic demands. To influence any European political or military situation, however, Russia really doesn’t need to send ground troops; it has three convincing diplomatic tools: (1) nuclear weapons; (2) a veto in the UN Security Council; and (3) abundant natural gas shipped to Europe via pipelines.
Moscow’s emerging ultranationalist government may see the invasion of South Ossetia as a route to recovering international respect, a renewed “Mother Russia” defending its allies against NATO’s political designs and, in fact, acting as “a Moscow NATO” when it comes to addressing wars on its own borders.
UPDATE: See this.
More between Georgia and NATO? What about Turkey?
And what of Azerbaijan, who have cause to be nervous about an overland connection between Russia and Armenia? This war has potential.
ED NOTE: Alan, see the quickie mea culpa down the thread. As for the comment filter– it’s set on “pretty tough” so if a comment doesn’t come through it’s because the filter caught too many links, too many foul words, or your server or url may have been rated as “suspicious.”
Comment by Alan Kellogg — 8/9/2008 @ 8:22 pm
Me too. Did Turkey get kicked out of NATO or something?
Comment by Brendon Carr (Korea Law Blog) — 8/9/2008 @ 8:39 pm
Georgia has a border with Turkey, which has been a member of NATO since 1952.
ED NOTE: See correction comment. And great to see Steven Den Beste on the Internet.
Comment by Steven Den Beste — 8/9/2008 @ 8:43 pm
The outcome looks like Georgia loses South Osettka and Abkhazia to Russian control. However, I believe this will be a pyrrhic victory for the Russians. This assures increasing Western support for Ukraine and increasing American intervention, money, and military support for democracies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Austin, do you think a mutual defense treaty with Ukraine is plausible?
Comment by An — 8/9/2008 @ 8:51 pm
Steven seems to forget what Turkey has done in 2003. So much for NATO membership!
Comment by Pete Zaitcev — 8/9/2008 @ 9:16 pm
“Georgia shares no NATO land border”
::blink::
Turkey? The whole reason for admitting Turkey was because of Soviet Georgia. The Russian threat was why both Turkey and Greece were admitted in 1952 in the first place. NATO was, originally, the Allies who politically banded together to “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.
The threat of Russia was why we, reluctantly supported the Greek Colonels.
The Germans were only allowed in in 1955. And _all_ this history, Colonel, is important.
“Since the early 1990s Russia has also backed ethnic Russians in Georgia’s separatist Abkhazia region.”
What, all 23,000 of them? The majority of the population of Abkhazia is, well, Abkhazians. Who aren’t ethnic Russians. In fact for most of recorded Census data indicates that ethnic Georgians were , by far, the majority in that area. A trend which reversed after Abkhazia announced it’s independence from Georgia. Within the next ten years the ethnic Georgian population fell from a quater million to less then fifty thousand. Ethnic cleansing who?
In IOAC they said that the biggest threat to your career was “shooting from the lip”. If you can’t get your basis right why should we believe your analysis?
ED NOTE: Writing fast at night — of course it has a border with Turkey and Turkey is in NATO. Point is Georgia is tough to get to. I had actually looked at reinforcement routes to Georgia and shook my head when I did. Sea is risky, air possible but only inserts light forces and the routes into Georgia from the south minimal (like, from Turkey!). Reminded me of trying to get to Hungary in 1956 or even trying to run ground forces into Albania in 1999. So I appreciate the correction. As for being in Abkhazia, ethnic support is one of Russia’s contentions. Abkhazia has a population of around 200K I don’t support the Russians actions but they will pull the Kosovo card out of the diplomatic deck. As it is, StrategyPage is declaring Russian victory.
Comment by Quilly Mammoth — 8/9/2008 @ 9:26 pm
This is exactly right, a ruinous precedent was set with Kosovo. Now Russia has any old excuse to intervene in another country on behalf of a “repressed minority”. The whole Kosovo ploy was totally idiotic, starting with Clinton in ‘99 and it only got worse since. Putin gave fair warning about Russia’s new attitude when western countries were recognizing Kosovo. Without that precedent, Russia would have held off. Western diplomacy has been a game of idiots for the past 10 years. If I was in charge at the time of 9/11, I would have sent Saudi Arabia an invoice for the full cost of the 9/11 attacks, and demanded immediate payment.
Comment by Cincinnatus — 8/9/2008 @ 9:47 pm
As far as “words have meanings”, several, including that Medvedyev guy whatever his title is, have noted the Russian interest and tendency to intervene and project force in areas with large ethnic Russian populations. Does Brooklyn qualify?
Comment by Interested Conservative — 8/9/2008 @ 10:54 pm
TO: Austin Bay, et al.
RE: Leopards, Spots and Russians
History repeats itself….AGAIN…..
Russia, whether Czarist, Communist or Putinist has always wanted to gain access/control of lands to its immediate south. Even unto the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.
RE: The Analysis
Very good. However, it’s lacking one aspect that, though not crucial, is interesting; the separatist move to declare independence resembles the coup d’etat that allowed the Soviets into Afghanistan.
Additionally, the timing—to coincide with the Olympics—is a nice touch, allowing the so-called major media an opportunity to ignore the whole thing, or at least not to focus entirely on it.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[History doesn’t repeat itself. It has a speech impediment; it stutters.]
Comment by Chuck Pelto — 8/9/2008 @ 11:27 pm
Just as a reminder, though troops on the ground usually trump the niceties of history, when the Soviet Union broke up the successor states created the CIS. This never worked real well owing to the fact that the fraternity was made up of brothers who basically really hated the head jock. But they did guarantee and recognize the borders of these new states Georgia included even though it was one of the last to sign in 1992. Without reservation or parsing codicils.
While the Dayton Accords, the basis for the creation of an independent Kosovo, did guarantee the territorial integrity of Serbia but only if the Serbs showed any plans or interest in trying to reintegrate the province into Serbia without killing everybody and their dogs as a solution. NATO, the US and the EU may have indeed exaggerated the number of Kosovars ethnically cleaned from the province, probably at least ten or twelve were bogus, but at ever opportunity the Serbs misjudged how many people it could kill, torture or drive out before they got their noses bloodied.
I agree with An in that this may represent a victory for Russia in the short run but many of the wavering states around the Black Sea and the Transcaucasus may well be knocking or rather pounding on the door of the US or India or even China for a defensive alliance. And those successor states in the West will be saying told you so at every opportunity and as loudly as possible as well. One can only wonder now if Russia would have acted thus if Georgia and The Ukraine had been offered membership in NATO.
Comment by Pat Patterson — 8/10/2008 @ 2:17 am
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The count of Tskhinvali civilians killed by Georgian bombardment and ethnical cleansing that began on Friday the 8th of August is now 2000. Obviously this figure is not final.
Russian introduced new forces in South Ossetia on the 9th of August (the next day) after Georgian forces broke through the demarcation line established in 1992 to stop the complete assassination of the South Ossetian people in Tskhinvali. Presently, the city is in ruins. The military infrastructure of Georgia was attacked by Russian aircraft following Georgia’s use of aircraft, heavy artillery, and rocket units in its destruction of Tskhinvali. Russian troops crossed the border of South Ossetia on the 9th of August to enforce its peacekeeping contingent following the assassination of 10 of its peacekeepers and the remorseless destruction of civilian population in Tskhinvali that began at day before. Russian forces now proceed to extrude all Georgian military forces beyond the demarcation line established in 1992. Russia is presently tending to the thousands of displaced and wounded people of South Ossetia.
Russia has announced that it will address The Hague court as Georgia’s action abrogated international law. The murder of thousands of South Ossetians “citizen of Georgia” is nothing other than pure ethnical cleansing and was intended to drive the people of South Ossetia off its territory and deprive it of any signs of Ossetians. Georgia for Georgians was the motto of the former Georgian president Gamsakhudi that began the slaughter in 1992 and it remains the slogan of Saakashvili today.
Regretfully, lop sided information is reaching the western world claiming Russian troops are attacking Georgia. Little or no mention is made of why Russia introduced additional forces in South Ossetia. Russia’s peacekeeping contingent was outmatched in number and weapon systems by the intruding Georgian military forces and the limited contingents of Russian peacekeepers was not capable of stopping the massacre of civilians in Tskhinvali nor protect its own limited contingent that was attacked by a squall of rocket blasts in the first minutes of the attack.
The heated polemics supporting Georgia’s becoming a member of NATO have received a clear answer.
Russia will never allow any maniac to terrify or murder the people of South Ossetia or Abkhazia and will do all to restore peace on these war torn territories.
Presently, there are no Georgian troops in Tskhinvali. Georgians are limited in their information sources as opposing TV channels have been closed down and Russia internet sites providing their account of the happenings have been cut off.
Comment by valentine — 8/10/2008 @ 8:20 am
I am dubious as to whether this will accelerate the expansion of NATO. I believe that the Eastern European nations will favor expansion, while many of the original members won’t. The Germans have not shown vigor in their commitment in Afghanistan, it hard to imagine them being enthusiastic to add members who could get them into a real shooting war.
Quilly Mammoth, if the tone of your comment and language used at your link reflect what was in your missing post, then I am not surprised it didn’t show up. Was it an ad hominem invective filled post or a calm detailed rebuttal? The posting guidelines, at least in the past, were clear on what is acceptable and what is not.
Comment by pford — 8/10/2008 @ 9:22 am
Valentine: what is the source of your quote? Or is this text your original writing? If it is your original writing, what is the source of the casualty count in the opening sentence?
Comment by Hal — 8/10/2008 @ 11:02 am
Austin,
The logistics of the Russian forces in this argue for a pre-planned and large conflict with Georgia.
The Georgian forces were goaded by attacks from South Ossetia and the Georgian President fell for the Russian trap.
However, the Georgians seem to be fighting smart, now that they realize what is going on.
1. The set up an anti-aircraft buzz saw over Tblisi that among other things nailed
a Backfire Tu-22 bomber.
2. The Georgian air force managed to get off a number of Su-25 sorties the first two days that hit Russian forces.
3. The Georgians claim to have hit and closed the Roki Tunnel. Given that the mouth of the tunnel is in heavy multiple rocket range of Georgia, that seems credible.
4. The Georgians have managed to wound the commanding general for the 58th heavy division. Both the Soviets and Nato have military doctrine to take out commanders and the Georgians managed to pull it off.
5. The Russians are flying in paratroopers to back up the 58th. That implies that the Georgian infantry is causing the 58th problems in the mountainous terrain.
6. The Georgians took the pass that Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, sat in. The fighting there has resulted in the city being destroyed by artillery fire.
All that said, the Russians have
(a) Established air superiority over Georgia,
(b) They are moving ground forces by sea to Ochamchire
(c) They just sank a Georgian missile patrol boat (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLA56070520080810), so a defacto blockade of Georgia is under way (see: http://rmgh.net/news-room/alerts/62-alerts/795-russian-navy-blockades-humanitarian-wheat-shipment-to-georgia-.html),
(d) The are massing ground forces against the Kodori Gorge, which is a route to the port of Poti,
My take is that the Russians have activated contingency plans to over run Georgia, based on harder then expected resistance by Georgia.
Comment by Trent Telenko — 8/10/2008 @ 2:59 pm
TO: All
RE: Where Are the A.N.S.W.E.R.s?
Isn’t it an interesting ‘indicator’ that ANSWER has not been all out spoken about this matter?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Comment by Chuck Pelto — 8/10/2008 @ 3:02 pm
P.S. I’d like to see a list of contributors to ANSWER. Is that possible?
Comment by Chuck Pelto — 8/10/2008 @ 3:05 pm
Even though the situation in Kosovo is similar it shouldnt matter in this case. 2000 South Ossetians were killed and that doesnt seem to get much press. What does, is that Russia attacked Georgia. Whoop-dee-doo. After the Georgian attrocities that were committed against Ossetians, I’m not feeling too sorry for their civilian losses. Although I do think it’s wrong that Russia has hit some residential areas, the losses on Georgian side are very minimal compared to the South Ossetian side. This is the 3rd genocide staged by Georgia against South Ossetians but this info bit escapes the world media services. BTW, Russian didnt invade South Ossetia. Get your facts straight. Kosovo got their independence, as should Ossetia.
-native Ossetian.
Comment by Svetlana Valieva — 8/10/2008 @ 5:45 pm
Saakashvili is a criminal beyond belief. His forces staged a full-fledged genocide of South Ossetian people. They were killing women and children by running them over with their tanks! A number of women were killed by holding their heads and shooting at their necks before the head separeted. Thess saddists also killed a number of journalists covering the situation. They didn’t stage warfare (warfare has rules) - they staged atrocities and ethnic clensing. Only cowards can do this, they are not men. I am not sure if targeting civilians was part of US-based training of Georgian forces just a few weeks ago but all the evidence suggests that US has intimate interests in destabilizing situation around the strong countries of the world that were its historical opponents. This way all the world’s resources can be appropriated or shipped in the “right” direction. US also wishes to engulf post-Soviet Republics into NATO. That way it could have its forces surrounding Russia. The building of anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe is not against Iran as they claim - it’s clearly against Russia. Even after all the evidence of ethnic clensing is clearly presented to the US, they still call it Russian “occupation”. They think people are stupid and can be easily brain-washed. In fact the news is twisted every possible way to conseal the attrocities. For example, they mention “the number of people killed” but not even once have they mentioned that the Georgians killed 2000 people. Every psychological trick is used to give a twisted view of reality. In my 10 years in North America I have yet to read one positive piece of news about Russia!
For the US, Georgia is a bit similar to Iraq when it comes to its search for oil supplies. The only difference it is also trying to be its “friend” so that NATO forces can be placed there at the Russian border. It is trying to kill these two birds with one rock, which comes at Russia’s expense.
Also, make no mistake about Saakashvili. He is friends with Borish Berezovsky who once needless to say, illegally, controlled 10% of Russians money in early 90’s (Read Paul Khlebnikov’s book “The Godfather of Kremlin”; it’s no surprize the authour is no longer with us). Berezovsky is also interested in destabilizing Russia as it convicted to life in prison their for his criminal activities. In fact he himself stated that, one cannot get that rich in Russia without having to commit something illegal. Some of the personal financial transactions involved in Berezovsky’s and Saakashvili’s business endeavors were done with Chechen separatists. So both of them have places to hide where nobody in this world would dare to find them. Berezovsky has proved to be a powerful mastermind when it comes to impacting countries’ leaders and gaining control in difficult situations. He might have a small hand to play in this situation considering how close the two are.
It should come as no surprize that the situation in South Ossetia was so much needed by parties external to Russia. Russia was left with no option but to protect its sitizens.
Comment by Alex — 8/10/2008 @ 10:03 pm
Georgian military tanks giving women and children! And you, dear, sitting thousands of kilometers away in their U.S. and see the false news which shows you your government, pay for military expansion Georgia!
Here, there Ossetian refugees and photos of what remains of Tskhinvali
http://www.vesti.ru/videos?cid=15
You do not wonder why CNN does not show these images? Why did you only show the statements of Georgian President? Open, finally, the eyes.
Comment by Roman — 8/11/2008 @ 12:50 am
Svetlana, Roman, Alex: Please provide a source for the 2000 Ossetians killed by Georgia not controlled by the Russian or South Ossetian governments.
Comment by Hal — 8/11/2008 @ 5:31 am
Being of Serbian origin it makes me SICK to the stomach how the NEW WORLD ORDER/NATO
are using the words ‘territorial integrity’ and ’sovereignty’ to describe the Russian-Georgian conflict.
Funny how Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty was physically taken away from
them by THE 78 day bombing of Serbia by NATO forces and only stopped once Serbian troops
withdrew from their most holiest province of Kosovo-Metohija, home to 2,000 churches and monasteries.
Funny too, how the Americans, by 2001 had built the largest military complex outside of the US called Bondsteel in the southern city of Urosevac. FUNNY THAT!!!
SOUTH OSETTIA & ABKHAZIA= KOSOVO PRECEDENT.
Comment by Ron_Paul_Serb — 8/11/2008 @ 8:01 am
Somebody was intensively interesting in the number of civilian killed in South Ossetia. The number of bodies of civilians that have been so far retreaved is estimated as 1600. It was also said that it is far from being the final figure as many bodies have been left untended to and remain to decay. I assume nobody knows the exact figure today, as many bodies have been burn to extinction such as those who persished in burning houses and automobiles. The overall estimation is that the figure is 2000.
Comment by valentine — 8/11/2008 @ 8:20 am
I am an American who loves his country, but I am finding out that my country’s government, be it Democrat or Republican, has been overstepping it’s boundaries way to much over the past 15 or so years. The Kosovo precedent is real, all one has to do is google “South Ossetia and Kosovo” to see that. Unfortunately, the MSM in the my country has been trying it’s best to keep the term “Kosovo precedent” out of the Russia/Georgia/South Ossetia stories they are running. I spent over a year in Serbia and Montenegro and while I was there I found out so much more of the story that happened in the Balkans during the 90s. Our completely biased media never showed the other side of the story. For example, I will use the “Srebenica tragedy” to show my point. Naser Oric, the leader of the Muslim forces in Srebenica was using the UN safe haven to conduct guerilla warfare against the Serb villages that were located around it. They would attack the Serbs with hit and run tactics (not only men, but women and children as well), than rush back to the UN safe haven where they would be protected. After months of this BS, the Serbs finally got tired of it. They gave several warnings to the Muslims there to leave of their own volition, but Oric would not allow his human shields to leave. Seeing this the Serbs than advanced on Srebenica, disarmed the Muslims (along with Mujahadeen fighters that were among them), SEPARATED the women and children from the population and gave the Muslims their just due. YET, no one heard that here in the USA, no one knew the complete truth behind that significant loss of life (I sometimes wonder how many of those “innocent muslims” would be carrying out terrorist attacks today or fighting along side fellow extremists in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places). You want an idea of what Izebetgovic’s dream for Bosnia was, read his manifesto from the 70’s about introducing Sharia Law through all of Bosnia. Another thing that irritates the hell out of me is that the US under Clinton ALLOWED Iran to funnel in weapons and soldiers to help on the Bosniaks behalf. Look, Im not saying the Serbs were completely innocent, but all sides (including the Croats Operation Storm in the Krajina region, which was whole scale ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Croatia) were just as guilty as the others, there was no good guy, bad guy, it was war and it was ugly. Bottom line, the US and NATO bombed the Serbs because they were winning. As far as Kosovo goes, that is a huge mistake, now the West is reaping what it sowed. Bush should never have continued the failed policies of the previous adminstration, he did and now what have we got. Hell, even Russia warned the international community about their supposed “unique” case and no one listened and now more people are dead. So now we have Abkhazia joining in and not to far down the line one can expect the same from the Basques (ETA)in Spain, the muslims in the southern Phillipines, Transniestra in Moldova, etc…Pandora’s box is open and it’s going to get worse before it get’s better.
Comment by LMN II — 8/11/2008 @ 1:57 pm
By the way, regarding Srebenica, Naser Oric fled just in time, he left many of his fellow muslims to die. Also, the ICTY recently acquitted Oric of his crimes against the Bosnian Serbs, as well as, Ramush Haridinaj of the KLA and Kosovo’s gangster govt, so much for international justice, apparently Serb lives aren’t as important as others. The West bombed the one country in the Balkans that was on the allies side in both world wars, check out the Ustashe Nazi sympathizing Croats (Jasnevac concentraton camp, 2nd deadliest in Europe after Auschwitz), as well as, the Bosnian and Albanian SS divisions (by the way, Izbetgovic was a recruiter for the Nazis in Bosnia). All of them tried to annihilate the Serbs, no wonder they were/are wound so tight considering who they have around them. MAKES ME SICK TO SEE HOW THE WEST AND THE WESTERN MEDIA DISTORTED THE ENTIRE STORY IN THAT REGION!!
Comment by LMN II — 8/11/2008 @ 3:13 pm
Great, so now Russia has decided that it wants to be an international bully like the US. Bush and Putin need to put their juvenile egos away stop acting as though they have a right or duty to rule the world. If South Ossetia is seventy thousand people, then they should be relocated to Russia where their passports say they are from. I am sick to my stomach with warmongering fools whose first reaction is to start shooting.
And… to all those who are yelling the usual old lines “The West is to blame!”, “Russia is up to it’s old soviet tricks!”, “Sakaashvilli is a monster” you are doing NOTHING to help.
I think we can safely assume that there is no such thing as impartial media. You can be sure that it will be the poor, the women, the children, and other ordinary civilians will be the ones to pay the highest cost.
War is the first choice of the idiot!
Comment by Aaron — 8/11/2008 @ 8:04 pm
Kosovo is similar to Georgia but, North Mitrovica is similar to South Ossetia.
As the United States Institute for Peace says, “No solution for Kosovo can last without a solution for Mitrovica.”
http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2006/0724_mitrovica.html
Serbs number only 130,000 of Kosovo’s nearly two million population. Half of Kosovo’s Serbs live in North Mitrovica and its hinterland up to the border of Serbia proper.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2007/08/mil-070810-voa06.htm
Comment by Saratov — 8/13/2008 @ 6:32 am
Countries like Russia and China are basically fearful of breaking up into sections that are autonomous yet they insist that other countries can be broken up into autonomous regions as long as they are allied to Russia or China. The Best thing to happen to Russia is that it breaks up into pieces, which will eventually happen despite the repression of its leaders who are just former communists that now put on the air of businessmen.
Comment by Terik Ororke — 8/13/2008 @ 6:58 am
Look this:
http://www.osradio.info/
Comment by rustam44 — 8/13/2008 @ 11:31 pm
look: http://www.osradio.info/
Comment by rustam44 — 8/13/2008 @ 11:32 pm
KOSOVO’S INDEPENDENCE SETS A PRECEDENT FOR FURTHER BLOODSHED
Russia is gradually returning its say in world matters, though recent events in Georgia, supportive of massive western propaganda, silencing or distorting the truth of what happened in South Ossetia are exhaustively labeling Russia an Empire of Evil willing to annex foreign territories.
Russia opposed providing independence to Kosovo as did over150 other countries members of the UN, quite a number bearing in mind that there are altogether 190. The decision was made by overruling international law which forbids annexation of foreign territory. Following which, strangely enough, Kosovo was not admitted to be a precedent for others by the same discussants.
So the matter of dissolving issues of this character has been left to some uncertain, obscure and ticklish procedure that no one knows of. No one can predict how things will turn out in the other numerous well-know disputes of this kind.
In reality Russia was not directly opposed to Kosovo’s independence as it was to the manner in which independence was provided. There have to be rules in this grievous game. Sometimes, laws do not provide a resolution to a given matter in which case the only way out is to set a “precedent”. Doing this, extreme apprehension should be paid to the fact that this “precedent” automatically becomes a monitor and instigator for separatism for others cases even if this precedent is not recognized by the majority of other countries. You can not say that one case in point is a precedent and other similar ones are not. The people in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and other places of similar context can not comprehend why Kosovo was granted independence and they weren’t. This being the case, the chances left for resolving such problems peacefully are left to a fading chance, whereas a more common outcome becomes warfare or waging endless onslaughts of terrorism.
The precedent was set in Kosovo by the US military blasting resistance out of Serbia. I can imagine that not all territorial disputes have peaceful resolutions; I assume that in some cases force might have to be applied to minimize even more losses. Should this be the case it must be in accord to an internationally determined procedure and not adjudicated by one country or a group of countries.
The question of Kosovo is not all about Kosovo; it is something that any country can face in any turn of its history. Georgia is a very recent and illustrious example. The Ukraine with its lack of consolidation, political deviation seems to be standing in the short line of similar problems. Both Georgia and at least the president of the Ukraine and his coalition see themselves in NATO. The real reason behind this is obvious discord drawn along ethnical lines, which places a serious and haunting threat to their integrity. The Kosovo precedent makes them worry as they anticipate a likewise outcome for themselves. The Baltic countries, having a large Russian population are in the same context; they too stand in opposition to Russia fearing that Russia might be the next one to repeat the “precedent” in the same manner as the Americans did in Kosovo. America, taciturnly backed by European ambiguity quite clearly illustrated how matters of this kind may be resolved.
That Ukraine, even if hypothetically, maintains its probability of being integrated into NATO, may tip the decrepit political equilibrium inside the country, leading to an escalation of nationalistic flag-waving spates on either side of the barricades, many of which we have seen both in Georgia and the Ukraine during their colour revolutions. It would not take much effort to instigate a growth of unmanageable of violence. We all know that it takes minutes to make a brawl and years to settle it. Signs of raveling in matters that never caused the slightest reproach in the past are becoming a bone of contention in the Ukraine. It is not an odd coincidence that the endeavour into NATO by Ukraine comes together with the glorification of former veterans who served in Ukrainian Nazi military formations during WWII. Anybody who opposed Russia at any time in history, even those who fought in the ranks of fascist Germany against Russia, are granted state honours and equaled in rights to true WWII veterans . The slogan of Yushenko and his associates reads: “Anybody who is or was against Russia is our ally”. This, with a huge proportion of the population of Russian heritage; in some regions they significantly outnumber ethnical Ukrainians; any contrived division of interests may be fatal. Russia as in the case of Georgian will again be placed before a serious dilemma of how to protect the interests of ethnical Russians in the Ukraine. Entrance to NATO would enforce one side of the opposition, namely those in confrontation to Russia. Unless the Ukraine chooses a leadership that can countervail the odds dividing the country and find uniting and consolidating ideas valued by both extremes, the shade of Kosovo and Georgia will remain in suspension. Yushenko is not a political leader in the conventional meaning of the word; he supports the interests of ethnical Ukrainians whereas Yanukovich is inclined to support the Russian orientated segment of the Ukrainian population. This division has a very serious explosive element.
Now, Germany a vital element of European stability has just announced that it will support Georgia’s entrance to NATO. Germany’s conciliatory placement in resolving Kosovo’s dispute following in the steps of transatlantic relations has poured fuel to similar conflicts exasperating either side, South Ossetia and Abkhazia that they can gain independence as a precedent of Kosovo, and Georgia repeating the “precedent” of the US applying military force as an argument in resolving its territorial and ethnical disputes. The Ukraine and the Baltic countries fear that Russia will copy the military aspect of the “precedent” if problems of this kind emerge in their countries.
It is becoming increasingly more obvious that any country that has the slightest hint of similar discord within its territory should automatically be excluded of any military block. If force is required it has to be internationalized. Otherwise, a military block such as NATO with its 5th clause obliging its member states to take active part in any warfare involving its member states or Russia, which wants its interests considered, or any other country, will place a threat to world security.
The countries that have such problems must be extremely patient and ingenious in seeking a resolution, making up for the interests of all its citizens in which case there will never be any need to rely on membership in any military block leaving things to a military toss up of who happens to be the dominating military force.
In any case, there should be a very heedful, effortful, awesome and cumbersome way, in terms of international law and time constrains, for a country to seek independence. This is what we should unite our ranks around to draw out the rules so that nothing similar to what happened in Kosovo, has repeatedly happened in Georgia since 1991, will ever happen anywhere else in the world. We have to talk it out and not fight it out.
Comment by valentine akishkin — 8/17/2008 @ 9:10 pm
Georgians Did Not Start the War: The Russians Did! And the Russians Did it Because Russia is Very Sick Today With Xenophobia and Nostalgia for the Soviet Empire!
Since beginning of August 2008, the Russian “Peacekeepers” together with Ossetian illegal militia have been ethnically cleansing Georgian villages and killing innocent civilians! Just think about this…
Many experts and diplomats wondered whether the Russian government is sick with xenophobia and with the nostalgia of “good, old Soviet Union” is trying to revive the forgotten empire. Or maybe they are just playing a very stupid game that will have extremely severe consequences to the future of Russia and its citizens.
It is not a new fact that the people from Caucasus republics are constantly being discriminated in Russia, are targets of Russian neo-Nazi groups and live second class citizens lives. The Russian government never tried to understand the mentality, culture and social norms of the people from the Caucasus region. Throughout history the Russian empire or the Soviets or Putin’s regime have been applying one rule to the Caucasus region in order to maintain control over it: divide and conquer! Putin successfully fueled ethnic tensions between various Caucasus nationalities, so they all had to look up to the Russians for help and the roots of this policy date back to Tsar’s Russian Empire, when the Russians were only able to take control over Caucasus with the help of Caucasus nations, primarily the Georgians. The Georgians thought they were doing a favor and Tsar would leave them alone to govern their own lives, but the Georgians were wrong.
After the collapse of Soviet Union the Russian government successfully fueled ethnic tensions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, Georgians and Ossetians, Georgians and Abkhazians, Ingushis and Ossetians, etc… This was the only strategy and the only game the Russian rulers played by: fuel hatred, divide the territories, resettle and arm the people so there will be no peace until the Russian soldier places his foot in the region. And of course, the Russian army is known for their outstanding performance in “peacekeeping” missions that have carried out, being involved in genocide, ethnic cleansing (Georgians in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Chechen civilians), rape, murder, torture and the list goes on. At the end it seems that the Russian “peacekeeping mission” is not that peaceful at all.
It is evident that the Russian political system always been in shape of a Pyramid, where all the political and economic control spheres of country is divided between a leader (Czar, or Secretary General or Prime Minister) at the top, who has a direct control and right hand support of secret service at one angle and military at the other. This is the heart of the Russian political life and everything else develops around it. With a strong propaganda machine, complete control over Russian citizens is assured, as well as “democratic” elections where one candidate always receives the vast majority (if not all) of the votes and there never seems to be opposition to the candidate. And what about the President Medvedev? He is just another toy in Putin’s closet…
Putin decided to send a strong signal to the world and wished to overthrow the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, but he failed. He strongly believes that the fate of the Georgian people depends on his wishes and is determine to shape the borders of another sovereign country. This move directly threatens the World Order established after World War II. The current World Order is not perfect, but so far, with its deficiencies it is working.
After the brief war with Georgia, the Russian government tried to justify its move by saying that the Georgians started the war. Here is the first lie! The Georgian government has been saying since beginning of August 2008 that the situation in South Ossetia is escalating and the Russian “peacekeepers” are staging provocations together with illegal armed forces of South Ossetian separatist regime. They started killing Georgian police officers and firing artillery shells at the Georgian villages located in South Ossetia, but the world was preoccupied with getting ready for the opening ceremony of Beijing 2008 Olympics.
When the Georgian government officials told the Europeans in Brussels that we were at the brink of war, the Europeans politely warned the Georgians not to use the word “war” in the city of Brussels, because they do not like the word “war.” It seems that old Europe is getting older each day and with the age, because numerous warnings and cries by the Georgian officials fell on the deaf ears of old Europe. Never mind the fact that it took Hitler conquering Poland and Czechoslovakia, before the Western Europe realized this was a war.
And what about the Americans? The American society is in the midst of elections, the Democrats want to see Europe take more responsibility for security in Caucasus region, the Republicans are divided and worried about gay marriage and abortion rights… The friends of Georgia in new Europe are trying everything to force the old Europe take harsher approach towards Russia, but Europe is dependent on Russian natural gas and oil.
Giving up on a young democracy does not seem plausible for the Europeans, but the old Europe is scared of the new Russian bear. The new Russia is controlled by a xenophobic psychopath who has decided to break all the rules of the game, in order to change those rules. And the question comes: how can you stop a bully? Everyone can keep condemning the Russian government, but that paper will wind up in Putin’s toilet again… The only way to stop a bully is bully up against the bully – simple rule of life.
With the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Russian government has proven the world that they will violate international laws whenever they feel like it and they will use aggression in the name of peace as they did in Prague 1968. If the world would not stand up for Georgia, who will be the next prey of the hungry Russian bear? Maybe Ukraine? Or Moldova? Or who knows… The Russian government is as unpredictable as the weather in England…
The Georgian people are united and stand united, we have survived the onslaught by Mongols, Persians, Arabs, Turk-Seljuks throughout the history and we have still survived and we are not scared of the Russian bear either.
Just last question to Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin, if you are so concerned about the freedom of small minorities, why not recognize the independence of Chechnya? Then Daghestan? Then Ingushetia? And then all the other autonomous republics where the citizens do not even speak Russian? Think about that at first and then lets discuss the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, after 300,000 Georgian refugees return to their own homes.
And to my fellow Abkhazian and South Ossetian brothers and sisters. Yes, there will be dancing and celebration in Sokhumi and Tskinvali. Yes, you will be smiling and waving flags - Georgian flags of course…
Comment by David Dzidzikashvili — 9/10/2008 @ 10:08 am