UPDATED: More on the Russo-Georgia Aftermath
Via StrategyPage. This week’s column.
Also see this StrategyPage update on the GSSOP (Georgia Sustainment and Stability Operations Program).
UPDATE: Hat tip Instapundit. A comprehensive post from CharlesCrawford.biz which concludes with this thought:
Does the objective correlation of forces favour those leaders who in a pre-modern way have a clear sense of what they want - and are ready to take risks to achieve it? Will think they have the upper hand against leaders who rely on little more than post-modern flannel and uneasy hopes?
I’ll pinch this from my column (from the StrategyPage link at the top of this post):
The Russo-Georgia War classifies as a limited strike sending the message that Russia intends to frustrate –at least in the short term — the post-Cold War expansion of Western Europe. Poland and Romania are in NATO, in part because they both fear an expansionist Russia, but Russian nationalists see the “West rolling East” into their sphere of influence.
Securing Russia’s borders and protecting the interests of ethnic Russians are traditional Russian concerns. Ethnic Russian communities in Georgia and Moldova’s separatist statelet, Transdniestr, are Kremlin causes celebre.
Now these concerns and the wounded ethno-nationalist pride that undergirds them may seem benighted and backward to international elites who proclaim global citizenship and advocate a diplomacy based on motivational oratory, but they energize a substantial number of people in a still quite powerful nation-state. International leaders must deal with the attitude and its militant expression. The nation of Georgia definitely must.
These “concerns” and the wounded pride undergirding them: Crawford’s “pre-modern.” Pre-modern but quite current.
TO: All
RE: Silly Rabbits!
It’s Rhineland-Sudetenland, all over again.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Comment by Chuck Pelto — 8/13/2008 @ 2:48 pm
So let me get this straight. We’re supposed to stop soothing the Muslims and Arabs over *their* various humiliations and hurted feelings, and start stroking Russia and re-assuring Ivan that their feelings shouldn’t be hurt … over whatever it is that they’re feeling pinched about?
Don’t you think even the Russians would notice a certain polite snicker behind the hand if the West were to assure them that yes, indeed, we don’t think they’re a banana republic, nor a failed society, and that no, of course, their elected President/Prime Minister isn’t a sociopath.
As we cut off visa applications and move to staunch the flow of immigration from there to here.
Comment by NahnCee — 8/13/2008 @ 2:54 pm
The calls for “immediate” admission into NATO of Georgia (and Ukraine, too) by Wesley Clark today and others commentati previously simply ignore the hard facts on the ground.
First, no European commentators or politicians are saying this, which should give you a good idea of how they regard the notion. Second, NATO doesn’t have to tooth to oppose. If it did, NATO contingents other than Britain’s would be conducting actual combat operations in Afghanistan. Absent American military power, there is no NATO military power. And the US doesn’t have the military power to oppose Russia and continue to provide forces for Iar and A’stan.
Pre-modern Russia? You betcha - Russia can move its forces on the ground faster than diplomats can move themselves to conferences.
I’ve posted more thoughts on why the balance of power is tipping, whether we want it to or not.
Comment by Donald Sensing — 8/13/2008 @ 3:15 pm
Oops - meant to type, “continue to provide forces for Iraq and A’stan.” Sorry
Comment by Donald Sensing — 8/13/2008 @ 3:16 pm
This strategic analysis by Stratfor is excellent.
Comment by Jeff Garzik — 8/13/2008 @ 3:21 pm
In fact, Canada has been conducting combat operations in Afghanistan for years, and has taken relatively heavy casualties. The contribution of Europeans, especially the major countries - Germany, France, Italy is pathetic.
Comment by David Hargrave — 8/13/2008 @ 3:24 pm
Just ask Abyssinia the worth of resolutions without regiments.
Back to Kipling’s World.
Comment by Mikey NTH — 8/13/2008 @ 3:27 pm
i think the main message russia is sending is that no, there will be no double standard for independence and self determination, and what is good for kosovo and georgia, is good for ossetia and abkhazia.
and i think we should listen to that.
Comment by poul — 8/13/2008 @ 3:30 pm
The RF is relatively hard-eyed about its nation and the threats that they perceive surrounding it. A 4,300 km border with some of the most expansionist, xenophobic, and dishonest peoples on the planet. A history of violent attacks from Europe. And a long tradition of trouble with Islam (Turkey in the 19th century, Islamofacists in Chechnya most recently). The RF won’t accept undue encroachment on their sphere of influence any more than we would.
If the S. Ossetians and the other province wish to join the RF and have actively rebelled against Georgian sovereignty, what concern is that of ours? Georgian pulled the tail of the bear on this one by attacking S. Ossetia and allegedly leveling a whole town in their attack. The RF is making entirely certain that this won’t happen again–an attitude we in the USA should have more of, not less.
RF as a failed nation? Guess you haven’t been to Moscow, St. Petersburg, or other cities there in a while. I saw a dynamic, relatively open capitalist society with energetic people working hard to better themselves and their families. Nearly everyone I met had both a job and their own small company. I suspect that the downward population trend of recent years has been reversed–both from natural inclinations and the bonus the RF pays for children (250,000 rubles, I believe).
Ethno-nationalist pride? Lots of nationalist pride in a fairly diverse society comprised not only of ethnic Russians but Tajiks, Georgians, Armenians, Chinese, and any number of smaller ethnic groups such as the Ossetians. The RF citizens are very proud of their country and their heritage, a trait that we have stopped emulating years ago.
And do we really, truly care about the politics between Georgia and the RF? NATO was created to serve one purpose–stop the USA from being drug into any more European wars. Does anyone really believe that an action between Georgia and the RF has any real impact on the USA?
Comment by iconoclast — 8/13/2008 @ 3:52 pm
The Caucasus has been an area of conflict between the Russian state and various minorities/states for hundreds of years, and they have no intention of allowing too much independence. There are a number of hard, cold geopolitical givens that we cannot ignore. How and if and should the United States become involved are the next questions. I hope we’re watching to see what hardware and tactics were deployed by our Russian friends.
Comment by matt — 8/13/2008 @ 3:54 pm
“i think the main message russia is sending is that no, there will be no double standard for independence and self determination, and what is good for kosovo and georgia, is good for ossetia and abkhazia.”
Someone named “poul” would think that way.
Two glib little comments that apply here: ‘Welcome to the 19th Century in Europe’ and ‘You and what army?’.
Comment by Parabellum — 8/13/2008 @ 4:00 pm
Ethnic Russian communities in Georgia and Moldova’s separatist statelet, Transdniestr, are Kremlin causes celebre.
Please, note that there is no sizable ethnic Russian community in Georgia; instead, Russia went to war in order to supposedly protect Osetins, which are at the same time despised and discriminated in the mainland Russia as Caucus highlanders.
As a part of the support campaign for the South Osetia and Abkhasia independence, Russian government distributed among the breakaway provinces population Russian passports of dubious validity.
Comment by Joseph Hindin — 8/13/2008 @ 4:01 pm
The U.S. should assume the obligation of helping Georgia to develop, thereby facilitating its future prosperity. Mark well my words: S. Ossetia & Abkhazia would then *beg* to rejoin the union.
Comment by David Govett — 8/13/2008 @ 4:02 pm
And why is Russia paying women to have children? Because they are losing population at the rate of 1 million a year. And what does Russia export besides oil? Women. That is always a sign of civilizational collapse.
This current dust up is just setting the table for the feast on the bones of the FR when they can no longer defend themselves. The question is: where will the dividing line between Europe and China be? The Urals might be a good dividing line. Maybe further east? No matter. That question will not come up for decades. In the mean time there will be jockeying up for position.
Comment by M. Simon — 8/13/2008 @ 4:04 pm
Russia is weak. It has over-reached itself in Georgia. The USA has agreed to fly in material to support Georgia. That is enough. All Georgia has to do now, is to survive.
Comment by george — 8/13/2008 @ 4:05 pm
Please, note that there is no sizable ethnic Russian community in Georgia; instead, Russia went to war in order to supposedly protect Osetins, which are at the same time despised and discriminated in the mainland Russia as Caucus highlanders.
As opposed to the loving arms of the Georgians, right? I don’t see the N. Ossetians agitating to join their brethren in Georgia–in fact, exactly the opposite. While discrimination exists everywhere, it is always the case that discrimination backed by state-sanctioned coercion is much worse than individual discrimination.
As a part of the support campaign for the South Osetia and Abkhasia independence, Russian government distributed among the breakaway provinces population Russian passports of dubious validity.
dubious validity? Do you have any evidence of that? If they have Russian passports and are able to travel freely in the RF (as I observed other Russian citizens able to do without any trouble), then what is so dubious about them? Are the N Ossetians not RF citizens? I do believe they are.
Comment by iconoclast — 8/13/2008 @ 4:38 pm
I don’t know much history, but my impression is that France invented diplomacy and that those who didn’t have the stomach for confronting bullies jumped on it as a means to avoid wars. All that they accomplished is postponing war until it was unavoidable and far more costly.
I fear that Georgia will be another case of good people doing nothing, and that’s what Putin is counting on.
History seems to be composed of a series of close shaves any one of which can go the wrong way and destroy millions of lives. While I understand the sense of fatigue that makes us wish someone else would step up this time, I don’t think we can count on Evil taking a break any time soon. One of the lessons of life should be that freedom is at the high divide between slippery slopes, either one of which is terribly hard to get back from once you step off the ridge line onto it.
Comment by AST — 8/13/2008 @ 8:56 pm
The idea of dedicated “peacekeeping” brigades has been around since before the wall fell. There was BG during the ’90s who really worked on it, and may have published.
The idea was to stand up a number of brigades pretty much on the T/O you describe (MPs, medics, engineers, civil affairs folks, etc), with the training and equipment to deal with peacekeeping, disaster relief, even some “peacemaking” if necessary (As David Dixon Porter once said, “A nine inch shot is very convincing argument.”). The idea never really took off, I suspect partly due to budgetary considerations and partly to hostility from the folks who focused to much on killing people and blowing things up, rather than on asserting American power (which may invlove KP&BTU)
I worked on a related idea some years ago while attached to a US Navy institute, “Naval Civil Affairs.” The idea was to use existing appropriate naval assets to do peace ops, reconstruction, PR missions.
For example, mate a Navy-Marine medical company with a seabee battalion and send them to Mozambique to build rural clinics, train local medical personnel, etc. The troops get some hands-on experience, the US gets some favorable publicity and makes new friends, which may influence policies, and the units are still deployable in an emergency. We also build a cadre of people who have some understanding of local conditions.
The Aussie “Pacific Patrol Boat” program is somewhat similar.
About 20 years ago, tired of becing called upon to assist the many island mico-states in the Pacific in emergencies, they Aussies came up with the idea of giving the little countries a couple of patrol boats (well, actually anywhere from one to a half-dozen, depending on the country), and helping them develop their own maritime patrol capability. The Aussies used a design based on a vessel they already used, handed out a flock of boats, and sent RAN patrols boats to help train the islanders (also permitted cadets from each country to attend their naval college).
The program worked so well, the Aussies have SCHLEPPED the boats to give them another 20 years.
Comment by Al Nofi — 8/14/2008 @ 10:49 am
Did I miss something along the way?
How many UN resolutions did Russia get against Georgia before they invaded??
Comment by JAL — 8/14/2008 @ 11:44 am
Hi, guys!
First remember, Georgia and Saakashvili personally attaked South Osetia. We are not discussing now whether S.O. is a Georgian terriotory or an independent state. We are discussing the act of aggression made by Georgian forces. To tell the truth Russia was waiting for the number of victims… Russia attacked Georgian forces only after hundreds of victims… It’s the greatest mistake of Russian government but if Russia attacked earlier the World Community could fairly blame Russia for the accident… And now all blames are silly…
p.s. Not everyone knows but Russia warned about future Georgian aggression two days before the accident… Many people were evacuated from South Osetia right before the conflict inspite of Saakashvili’s lie who told that he will never attack georgian citizens…
Comment by vasco — 8/19/2008 @ 1:29 am
I don’t know much history, but my impression is that France invented diplomacy and that those who didn’t have the stomach for confronting bullies jumped on it as a means to avoid wars. All that they accomplished is postponing war until it was unavoidable and far more costly.
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saintjoseph
Georgia Drug Addiction
Comment by saintjoseph — 8/22/2008 @ 1:55 pm