Up the Ante Diplomacy: US and Poland go for Euro-Anti-Missile
This via AP:
Poland and the United States reached an agreement Thursday to base American missile interceptors in Poland, the prime minister said, going ahead with a plan that has angered Russia and threatened to escalate tensions with the region’s communist-era master.
Speaking in an interview televised on news channel TVN24, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the United States had agreed to help augment Poland’s defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the eastern European country.
“We have crossed the Rubicon,” he said, referring to U.S. consent to meet Poland’s demands.
Tusk said the agreement was initialed by negotiators late Thursday in Warsaw and includes a “mutual commitment” between the two nations — beyond that of NATO — to come to each other’s assistance in case of danger.
Nice AP lede, great comment by PM Tusk. The Russian invasion of Georgia made “crossing the Rubicon” very politically palatable. Made is easy for the US to provide Patriots.
Talks on the missile shield foundered last month, when Poland demanded more security guarantees for the project.
Washington aims to base 10 interceptor missiles in Poland plus a radar facility in the neighbouring Czech Republic by 2011-2013 to complete a system already in place in the United States, Greenland and Britain.
Moscow may well have concluded (two years ago?) that the Euro-ABM would be deployed, but it has certainly howled and threatened. The ground-based interceptor ABM is not anti-Russian, it’s a limited shield (ten interceptors) designed to counter an Iranian ballistic missile volley (”a shot from an ayatollah direction”). The “Patriot augmentation” is for Polish airspace defense and including Patriots had been a Polish demand. The Poles would not accept a Patriot lease deal. The Patriot has been upgraded over the years. The PAC-3 is a genuine anti-missile missile. Now, that system can –to a limited extent– counter shorter-range Russian missiles. The Russians have the capability of “swamping it” by firing dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles. Here is Lockheed’s ad for the multi-capable PAC-3.
MarketWatch reports that SS-21s have been used in Georgia. Its source is an ABM advocacy group. Here’s a quote:
“This outward military aggression with the use of ballistic missiles from Russia on a former USSR country sends a very serious message to all former members of the Soviet Block, especially Poland, who today made an agreement with the United States to host 10 U.S. ground-based missiles that will protect the United States of America and most of Europe from ballistic missiles. This agreement will also provide Poland with U.S. Patriot Missile Defense Batteries that have the capability to defeat and defend against short range ballistic missiles.
I wonder how long it will be until our meddling in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence will come back to bite us in the ass? To a neocon, there are no consequences to our actions. We can flick our fingers into Russia’s eye and we expect her to lay down and take it. What do we care–Russians are tyrants.
Americans get all huffy puffy over an imperialistic Russia, but we don’t stop to think that maybe, just maybe, our meddling might actually be a cause of Russia’s panicky pose.
Comment by Cody — 8/14/2008 @ 3:43 pm
Traditional sphere of influence? Gee I guess we have been remiss in not invading Cuba by now. It is after all only 90 miles from Florida and the Russians have said they will refuel nuclear capable bombers there. Then again, you do not sound like you think much.
Comment by Dawnsblood — 8/14/2008 @ 4:38 pm
There goes that damned Bush supporting democratic countries again!!!
Damned that Rovian self determination conspiracy!!
Comment by Dan — 8/14/2008 @ 5:41 pm
“Meddling in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence”? Just like the Russians simply threw Lithuanians, South Georgians, Estonians, etc., out of the houses their ancestors had lived in and then placed Russian citizens in, Russia’s “sphere of influence” is largely a product of their brass and liberal westerners’ lack of brass.
I think the “don’t antagonize Hitler and he won’t harm us” virus has become permanent in the cojones of westerners. We deserve to lose and our children (and their children) wiped out because of the current soft liberal thinking, if we follow this line of reasoning.
Comment by Mike — 8/14/2008 @ 5:44 pm
Gee. I wonder why Russia now feels compelled to refuel nuclear capable bombers in Cuba? Think it might have something to do with our desire to expand NATO, a military alliance, right up to Russia’s border? Nah…that couldn’t provoke anyone. What surprises me is that Russia hasn’t gotten around to doing this sooner.
Comment by Cody — 8/14/2008 @ 5:44 pm
Cody, the problem with your statement is the assumption that countries that are in “Russia’s traditional sphere of influence” don’t have their own rights to make agreements with whomever they choose. If Poland, the Czech Republic, Georgia, etc. felt that Russia provided them the best security/ stability options for the future of their countries, they would have gone the way of Belarus by now. But Poland, the Czechs, Georgia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia etc. have already lived under the thumb of the Russians, and they never want to again. Why is that not their right? Why should they not be allowed to make security agreements with whomever they choose, including the U.S.? If the sphere of influence of the Russians is shrinking, they have no one to blame but themselves. They alienated these satellite nations by brutally taking them over and exercising Soviet style government against them. You fall back on the same tired old notion that everything bad that happens in the world MUST BE the fault of U.S. actions ( “our meddling might actually be a cause of Russia’s panicky pose”). We have bent over backwards to be accommodating to the Russians — allowing them a seat at the table at NATO, G8 entry, etc. We have negotiated in good faith with them over and over again. Maybe you should consider that Russia’s pose is anything but “panicky” but rather is a deliberate and well-thought out plan to regain its control/influence over as many of the former Soviet republics it can whether they like it or not, because Putin and his ilk in Russia are thugs and want to regain nationalist pride. The U.S. is, as always, a convenient bogey-man to drum up domestic support for their actions, and they lie and use propaganda about the U.S. without any concern for the consequences. Not all in the world is the fault of the evil neo-cons. And by the way, tell me exactly what we have done to flick our fingers into Russia’s eye? Try to build a defensive missile system in Eastern Europe? Try to include other countries in a defensive security pact? We have done nothing offensive against Russia at all — it only in their own twisted paranoid minds that they see it as such, and we don’t need to sacrifice Eastern Europe to appease their illusions.
Comment by debkro — 8/14/2008 @ 5:51 pm
Those darn meddling Americans. They should just stand aside and let Tsar Putin’s tanks take back half the planet, shouldn’t they?
Cody is only the latest example of “the Devil made them do it!” excuse-making for any murderous dictator of roughtly leftie bent. Nobody should be surprised at this kind of idiocy, of course. The western Left never gave a tinker’s damn about Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Lithuanians, Georgians, Estonians, Latvians, or hell, even Russians so long as the USSR was opposed to evil Amerikkka. Omelets and eggs, don’t you know.
Clearly, nothing’s changed on that front.
Comment by Will Collier — 8/14/2008 @ 5:53 pm
“To a neocon, there are no consequences to our actions.” I don’t call myself a Neo-Con, but I wonder if by “consequences” you’re referring to the “consequences” of Roosevelt’s action of entrusting a huge “sphere of influence” to Stalin that led directly to the enslavement of eastern Europe for 50 years. I wonder what would be the “consequence” if just allowed Putin to do the same thing? Hmm, maybe you, the educated liberal, can figure it out and tell me.
Comment by Micah — 8/14/2008 @ 5:54 pm
Just send Georgia a couple of C-130’s loased to the gills with American RBS-70 portable Anti-Aircraft missiles and TOW Missiles for Armor. The Russians can then WALK HOME. Even Stevie Wonder can make Russian Jets drop like flies with “70″.
Comment by Nostradamus — 8/14/2008 @ 5:54 pm
@#1
There are consequences to every decision, even the decision to not do anything carries its own ramifications and repercussions. Except for the recently ended respite we’ve been “meddling” with Russia for about 90 years because it’s been in the US/West’s interest to do so.
Comment by Cuic Cuic — 8/14/2008 @ 5:57 pm
The Soviets, errrrrrr, Russians may yet have cause to rue the decision to take Prussia out of Germany and put it into Poland after WW2. One can see the effects on Germany, now we are seeing the effects on the Poles.
Comment by swift boater — 8/14/2008 @ 6:00 pm
@#6. It is not like Russia has nothing to send to Iran, Venezuela or Syria.
Russia gave up a lot and had shown a huge amount of goodwill in late 80-s and 80-s, and after 9/11, including a voluntary break up of the Soviet Union, removing military from the Eastern camp, agreeing to unification of Germany, up to cooperation vs jihadi and as a result were getting squeezed and called names with a complete disregard to their views, interests or feelings. Or facts, for that matter, cf. “democratic West-leaning” Saakashvili, the butcher of opposition and now Ossetian capital, or the long-winding Russian WTO application. Russia is not happy about the US encouraging, building and propping virulently anti-Russian regimes around Russia.
It is no suprise that Bush and his policies’ approval rating in Russia is as low as in the US, or less. Or that Russia, being “isolated” by the US, gets friendly with our enemies.
We saw that US has hardly any remaining options or bargaining chips to influence Russia, except stern tone, threats and arming her enemies. Right, that really worked well with Saakashvili who would not have attempted to raze Ossetian capital without being emboldened by the US support, arms, financing, backing and relentless PR operation.
I wonder what John McCain will be saying about his dear friend when those stories about Georgian genocide in South Ossetia will be substantiated by the West MSM in the next several weeks.
Comment by a — 8/14/2008 @ 6:53 pm
If I were Poland, based on past performance and the fact that Obama may well be our next President, I would not put too much faith in any mutual security agreements with the United States or NATO. We seem to honor our commitments as long as it’s safe or if we have no strategic interests involved. I think Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and all the “Stans” should form their own version of NATO. I’m sure they would get financial and military aid but would not have to rely on France, Germany, Spain or any other country to vote on their ability to act in defending themselves.
Comment by larry — 8/14/2008 @ 7:20 pm
Larry, you nailed it. They do. But children take time to nurture. Children also need to be protected. Poland also agreed to move up the pace of an agreement to house an American Military Base. Look for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO in December. I KNOW there is a movement of American Naval Forces into the Black Sea, I believe it is a complete Battle Group, and that means at least two Subs. All good short-term moves, but eventually They’re going to have to be brought up to the level of defending themselves, and that means an alliance. Of note: Ukraine has the largest Military in Europe, right behind Russia in size. Most people don’t know that. Quote: “Ukraine is a unitary state composed of 24 oblasts (provinces), one autonomous republic (Crimea), and two cities with special status: Kiev, its capital, and Sevastopol, which houses the Russian Black Sea Fleet under a leasing agreement. Ukraine is a republic under a semi-presidential system with separate legislative, executive, and judicial branches. Since the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine continues to maintain the second largest military in Europe, after that of Russia.” The CIA Factbook has more on that HERE: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html#Military
Comment by Nostradamus — 8/14/2008 @ 7:39 pm
Cody misses the Sovs. Poor Cody. Lucky for him, his comrades on the English Lit. faculty are equally miserable. Gulag Archipelago still isn’t required reading for that crowd of alienated misfit citizens.
Comment by Tim — 8/14/2008 @ 7:47 pm
“Cody” is one of those Russian blogger/agents that have been reported in the last few days, posting pro-Russian messages in blog comments. Can you not smell the lack of deodorant?
Comment by Some guy — 8/14/2008 @ 8:38 pm
#9… What a great agitprop comment..
First, the writer comments that the Russians might give advanced anti-aircraft and anti-armor missiles to Iran, Venezuela and Syria in response to another commenter’s idea that the US might give such missiles to Georgia. Mmmm well, Russian might, but we could suspect cash from the first two and help in a little mischief from the third make that threat an unrelated one.
Then, the writer lauds Russia because it “gave up a lot” and showed “goodwill” in [the] late 1980’s and [the] 1990’s. Ha ha ha. Of course, by those days, the Red Army just wasn’t able to drive events in the bad old way. It wasn’t 1945 or 1948, 1956 or 1968 anymore.
The writer claims that Russia has been “getting squeezed” and “called names”… how unfair. But the squeezing doesn’t mention what foreign army tank tracks are anywhere in Russia, does it? (The last time, those were Russia’s non-aggression pact German buddies’ tank tracks … and Orwell summed it upup perfectly in Animal Farm: “Serves you right.”)
The writer claims something about the [U.S. President] Bush’s approval rating in Russia. Well, careful reading of the writer’s style reveals that he drops most of his articles — Russian style!!! May we presume that our writer has been doing his professional best to lower my President’s approval rating in his Russia?? Perhaps even using the state re-controlled TV, radio and press to dictate mass opinion (even if samizdat internet has not been silenced, yet.) I’m not surprised that Russians on the street say just what the TV told them to.
And the writer makes a claim about “Russia … friendly with our enemies” “Our enemies”??.. “Our” would mean he’s one of us, whch is seeming less and less likely. Maybe a naturalized Russian sympathizer, but I don’t know.
Here comes “We saw that US has hardly any remaining options” (note another dropped article?) Dang… where is “Paper Tiger”? or “Imperialists”? or “Lackey Running Dogs”? The writer might be using a Russian version of one of my all time favorite posts: Stefan Sharkansky’s 5/21/2003 “Canard-O-Matic” which showed how the regretable Robert Scheer might have ginned up his LA Times columns http://www.usefulwork.com/shark/canard-o-matic.html
The writer closes with a slap at the US election and an assurance that “the West MSM” will “substantiate” that it was all the Georgians’ fault in South Ossetia… the part of Georgia where Moscow gave nearly everybody a passport. (What would Americans think if Mexico started giving passports to US citizens who lived close to the Mexican border? - What would the purpose be, except to prepare a border incident involving “Mexicans”?)
Nice work, “a”, but not very convincing. Are you supposed to be a secret agent?
PS… What ever happened to calling President Bush a “cowboy”? like you did President Reagan? The funny thing was that your US intellectual buddies told you it was an insult… but what do they know about the rest of us Americans? We see more favorable traits in “cowboys” than your buddies know.
Comment by bill lever — 8/14/2008 @ 9:05 pm
Cody,
Russia didn’t just recently “feel compelled to refuel nuclear capable bombers in Cuba”. They’ve been cycling those bombers through Cuba for the past 40 years or so. All those Tu-95 shuttling down the east coast to Cuba and back again heading north don’t have the range to fly it all on one fill up.
Pretty plum assignment for their crews, too. Imagine leaving Siberia in the middle of winter to spend a couple days in sunny Havana, and being paid to do it.
Comment by steveH — 8/14/2008 @ 10:45 pm
There is no NATO, and no threat to Russia. NATO is a paper organization, with the US and a bunch of European military forces fit only for Parades or the Special Forces Olympics, aka Afghanistan. That’s it.
There is no threat to Russia whatsoever. Germany doesn’t even have an Army, just Border guards and some policemen. They won’t even deploy to places where there’s fighting. The Dutch surrendered to Serbian militias in Bosnia in the 1990’s.
No. Russia wants to intimidate Europe because it has disarmed. They would not have pulled this stuff if the rest of Europe had anything but paper militaries. Russia also seeks to make examples of nations so they can deter more Beslans, Nord-Ost Theater, and Moscow apartment attacks/bombings etc. For that I don’t blame them. All they have is brutality, they can’t do the sort of targeted violence that Bush has in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with Special Forces alliance building in various African and Gulf countries. Stuff that puts local winners in power and keeps the indebted to the US to staying in power, thus an “early warning system” on Jihadi activity.
Georgia is as much about making an example (again) of someone to deter more attacks in the Jihad direction, strategically, as anything else. Tactically, it’s a transparent ploy to jack up oil prices and close that pipeline so Putin can pay off his thugs in classic Big Man patronage fashion.
The “trap” that all Western, modern countries find themselves in is that even poor nations can get nukes (Pakistan, North Korea, probably Iran by now) and kill modern powerful nations cities with deniable proxies. Even figuring out who done it would be a long, drawn out affair designed to make no retaliation possible. If Ivins was the Anthrax guy, that goes down to one guy in a lab able to do what it took the Soviets in the Cold War billions and a whole scientific city to do. Technology levels the playing field that much.
Hence: Russia and the brutality play (Putin’s “the weak get beaten” speech after Beslan). China’s and Europe’s desperate attempt to pretend jihad is not happening to them. Just a few days ago Jihadis shot it out with guns and grenades against Chinese police, and Hui Muslims are ethnically indistinguishable from the Han. America has responded with pre-emption in some cases, Special Forces ala Columbia and “Killing Pablo” Escobar in the rest. Russia has also made itself useful to Jihad, on the theory it would be attacked last.
Comment by whiskey — 8/15/2008 @ 12:33 am
“Congratulation, Putin. You just pissed away the Ukraine.”
Maybe he’ll be able to pry away the Crimea, but Yushchenko wasn’t in Georgia on vacation.
Putin had the initiative as long as he maintained the threat against Georgia. He would have kept it with a limited response in South Ossetia. But by overreacting, and then sponsoring a looting party he’s shown himself as the petty KGB thug he is.
The Russians got played for fools on this one. Barbarians with ballerinas, as usual. Putin’s not going to be able to pull the same trick off with Ukraine. I suppose he’ll try poisoning a few people again.
Can you say “Fast track into NATO for Ukraine”.
Comment by Lizard Abroad — 8/15/2008 @ 2:34 am
It seems all the Russophiles (closet com-symps all!) have one main screed: It all started when we started pushing back!
Russia occupied, brutally, many of her neighbours for centuries, some only for a few decades but all of those who have felt her non-too-delicate ministrations all have very strong incentive to stay out of their control
What happened when the Philippines demanded the US leave? Did the US call in Singaporean and Taiwanese allies to crush them and bring them back into their orbit? No. The Americans said ‘good-bye’ and left.
NATO is a 100% voluntary organization. Occupation by the Russians, including the unmourned Warsaw Pact, was just that
Stop being useful idiots. Stop kissing tyrants’ asses.
If you cooperate and appease them THEY WON’T GO AWAY! Home many times do we have to learn this?
Come on, repeat after me: fire burns, water is wet, dictators are not your friend
Comment by GW Crawford — 8/15/2008 @ 8:18 am
Teddy Roosveldt’s Secretary of State, John Hay, had to deal with the Russians back in his day. He supposedly told Teddy,
“It is difficult to negotiate with the Russians. They’ve raised mendacity to a science.”
It is difficult to see how Georgia or Poland or Estonia are threats to Mother Russia requiring “defensive invasions” (as NBC put it.) I think the US has proved that we are more than happy to respect Russia’s nationhood and present boundaries and that the path to peace and prosperity is cooperation and trade.
Georgia was a bit of overextension on the part of the US. It is a vital link into Central Asia but not readily defensible on our part. We were taking a risk in developing such support for the Georgian government. In the longer run, Russia made a mistake by energizing military and diplomatic resistance against them. When the bully flashes a knife, you better bet that normal people start thinking of packing heat.
Comment by Whitehall — 8/15/2008 @ 11:19 am
USA is just asking for trouble. Not surprising given the drunk retard in charge.
Comment by Samir — 8/15/2008 @ 11:33 am
I do not know how it could be done but it is time to kick Russia out of the Ukraine’s ports.
Comment by davod — 8/15/2008 @ 11:34 am
If you can believe this, the Russian media (state organs all, at this point) are peddling this angle: Dick Cheney made us do it.
I kid you not. They are claiming that this is all a clever scheme by Dick Cheney to “force” Russia to attack Georgia in order to thwart an Obama victory in November. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4535173.ece
Russia attacks a sovereign democracy and the reason is the same old, same old: “Bush did it.” The must be hanging out at DailyKos.
In a way, you can sorta understand. Remember when Dick Cheney deployed his Atmospheric Vortex Generator and destroyed New Orleans? Or when Bush sent huge magnifying lenses into orbit in an evil plot to melt the polar ice caps and destroy the Earth?
Comment by John — 8/15/2008 @ 12:05 pm
Your commenters are outstanding. Good on them for piling on the Russian sympathizer troll.
Comment by jr — 8/15/2008 @ 1:49 pm
I saw in “one” news article a report that the Russians were losing a lot of armored vehicles to a “strange Isrealie” anti-tank missle. I only saw the one report and sure would like to hear more about how the Russian forces fought and what their losses really were. Anyone?
Comment by jtpcamp — 8/15/2008 @ 3:22 pm
I do not know how it could be done but it is time to kick Russia out of the Ukraine’s ports.
It looks like Ukraine agrees.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2008/08/russians-loot-gori.html
There is a bit in there about the Ukrainians restricting the movement of Russian ships as a start. Evidently some nations learned the lessons of 1936 to 1940. The French? Not so much.
Comment by M. Simon — 8/15/2008 @ 3:33 pm
Left unchecked, Russia is guaranteed to engage in predatory behavior. If Russia regards us helping nations they have traditionally oppressed as meddling, too bad. Ukraine and Georgia should be admitted to NATO, and 100 Patriots placed in Poland instead of 10. That is the kind of language Putin and his ilk understand. Also, I do like the irony of the Russians bombing Stalin’s birthplace.
Comment by Rich — 8/15/2008 @ 4:52 pm
Invading Georgia. Threatening Poland, Ukraine, even leaning on Belarus! The Russian old guard is certainly throwing its weight around. It wants the old soviet republics and Warsaw Pact nations back. It’s sellers remorse. They want “to put the band together again” but the times have changed. They’ve been staring into their vodka and dreaming of this since they were embarrassed at the Pristina airport 10 years ago.
Comment by Andy — 8/15/2008 @ 7:13 pm
Nostradamus said:
Just send Georgia a couple of C-130’s loased to the gills with American RBS-70 portable Anti-Aircraft missiles and TOW Missiles for Armor. The Russians can then WALK HOME. Even Stevie Wonder can make Russian Jets drop like flies with “70?.
Max Boot in an LAT op ed suggesting giving the Georgians stinger and javelin missiles (for armored vehicles and tanks). Stingers helped win the war in Afghanistan.
Ever hear of Mike Vickers? He was the young strategic weapons genius in George Crile’s CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR. He is now in the Defense Department and I pray he is even now creating lists of weapons to supply our Eastern European allies with.
Comment by Sandra M — 8/16/2008 @ 7:01 am
Does anybody know where Putin is? Last I heard, he hasn’t been seen or heard from since he left Beijing, except for a Russian report that he was in South Ossetia, organizing intelligence operations. Is that what Russian Prime Ministers do when their army invades another country while they were at the Olympics? Somebody tell me the Russian miltary hasn’t staged a coup.
Comment by Lorenzo — 8/16/2008 @ 8:11 pm
Looks like the Ukraine are throwing in their chips with the US, Poland, and Georgia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/17/2337817.htm?section=world
This is rapidly esclating as the stakes for both sides grow. The US may wind up with a huge conventional security argeement where the Fulda Gap is replaced by the steppes of Ukraine.
Maybe Rumsfeld will be proven wrong in cancelling the Crusade.
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