Palestinian Civil War Boils Over
The Palestinian civil war is definitely on. Well, it’s been an on and off struggle for several years, but Arafat’s death raised the stakes and set the stage for an all-out internecine battle.
Hamas puts double pressure on Mahmoud Abbas by attacking Israel.
IsraelNationalNews.com certainly thinks sos:
Islamic Jihad terror leaders Friday afternoon tried to negotiate between Hamas terrorists and the PA, and called on all groups “to aim for Israel and the PA.”
Israeli intelligence officers have increasingly observed that Hamas has set up itself as a rival authority to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Several shooting incidents during the past few months indicated severe trouble for the PA’s attempts to govern there.
A civil war began to brew Thursday night after Hamas and Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade terrorists launched a massive mortar and rocket attack on Israeli communities when PA Chairman Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) visited the area.
An ensuing shootout between PA police forces and Hamas caused the death of two unarmed teenagers and left 16 injured, some of the seriously, according to the Al-Jazeera Arab news site. Several of the wounded were policemen. Hamas retaliated in Shechem, storming a PA police station and freeing one of its jailed terrorists.
Battles continued in Gaza Friday morning, with PA security forces using armored vehicles to travel in Hamas neighborhoods and Hamas terrorists firing anti-tank missiles. Leaders of the Islamic Jihad terrorist group, which was responsible for the suicide bombings in Netanya this week and in Tel Aviv in February, tried to negotiate a cease fire early Friday afternoon.
I suggested last fall, in a column written after Arafat’s death (November 17, 2004):
His [Arafat’s]death could lead to civil war among secular PLO factions. That would only benefit the Islamists. If the PLO secularists manage to work out their differences, a violent showdown with the Islamist organizations is a certainty, the only question is when and how large…
…a democratic election only begins a difficult process. The civil war with the Islamists will be fought, perhaps in alleys and off-camera. One hopes a stronger Palestinian government will eventually emerge, capable of genuinely fighting internal corruption and finally rejecting terrorism.
Here’s one reason:
Arafat leaves the PLO itself in disarray. Arafat played PLO faction against faction, pitting “next generation” leaders against one another. No one in Palestine could ever appear to be the bigger man than Yasser. When Mahmoud Abbas became Palestinian prime minister, Arafat snubbed him and undermined him. The Arafat game remained l’etat c’est moi — one-man control.
Clayton Swisher, writing in The The LA Times wondersif the Palestinian Liberation Organization is passe’:
The green flag of Hamas flies everywhere in Gaza these days — from the city of Rafah on the Egyptian border to Gaza City to the crowded, destitute Jabaliya refugee camp. Signs of support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah movement are nowhere, save for some old, faded posters of Abbas and Yasser Arafat, left over from the last election campaign.
This is a big change from two years ago — and a worrisome one. With Israel preparing to withdraw its troops and settlers in August, it suggests that the Fatah-backed Palestinian Authority may no longer command the grass-roots support necessary to fill the power vacuum that seems certain to emerge.
It’s not just the flags and wall posters; signs of the Palestinian Authority’s weakness in Gaza abound. For one thing, Hamas overwhelmingly outperformed Fatah in local elections earlier this year. And Abbas’ popularity is dropping steadily in Palestinian public opinion polls.
Here’s an NY Times report on Irsrael’s responses to Hamas:
Vowing to take “all necessary steps against terror organizations,” Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and defense Minister Shaul Mofaz have ordered troops near Israel’s border with Gaza to prepare to enter the Gaza Strip if necessary - a gesture of brinksmanship and a warning to the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, to begin to move against militant groups.
It is unlikely that Israel would move troops in force into Gaza with Mr. Abbas there, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice coming next week, and with Israel’s pullout from its Gaza settlements only a month away. Mr. Mofaz also says Israel will give the Palestinian Authority time to control the violence.
But after Islamic Jihad carried out a suicide bombing on Tuesday in Netanya, killing five people, and Hamas fired a barrage of rockets and mortar shells into Israel on Thursday, killing one, Mr. Sharon and the army are taking the opportunity to move against Hamas, Israel’s main concern, in the West Bank. The army is enforcing a ban on travel into Israel from the territory.
Twenty-six of the people arrested on Saturday belonged to Hamas: 16 near Hebron, 5 near Nablus, 3 in Bethlehem and 2 in Tulkarm. Two members of Islamic Jihad were arrested in Bethlehem and two more in Tulkarm.
Unlike Islamic Jihad, Hamas, which has political ambitions, has largely kept to the cease-fire with Israel announced by Mr. Sharon and Mr. Abbas on Feb. 8. But in the past two days, after Mr. Abbas and his interior minister, Nasser Youssef, moved to stop militants from firing rockets and mortars at Israeli targets, Hamas has fought back against the Palestinian police in a series of gun battles and has burned a number of Palestinian government vehicles, including an armored personnel carrier.
Islamist militants have a war that pits them against Abbas and Israel. This will be a battle of alleys and assassinations.
I hope BOTH SIDES LOSE in an Arab “civil” war in “Pali-stan”
Comment by reliapundit — 7/16/2005 @ 3:56 pm
Great reporting but not unexpected outcomes. Been speculating for some time that when Arafat exited the scene there would be a gangland style shootout. Since most of the factions are under local control a shotout had to occur to determine the top dog. The trick for israel is one of who survives? If Abbas wins in the end then it is not to israel’s benefit to meddle. If on the other hand it appears that Abbas can’t survive then the best thing the Iraeli’s can do is forment division and fraction amoung the groups. The bloodbath that ensues will weaken most of them. Dirty pool but it maybe Israel’s only choice.
Comment by JohnM — 7/16/2005 @ 5:03 pm
Can Abbas take out Hamas with his forces? I’m thinking he can’t, at least not in the Gaza. All of the major players know each other, and while Abbas may not have the ability to strike at the Hamas leadership in the Gaza, he certainly has the intelligence assets to. And Abbas must certainly see Hmas as his enemy now. I suspect that their will be many Hot Tips to the Mossad. The enemy of my enemy..
Comment by Quilly Mammoth — 7/16/2005 @ 5:32 pm
I’ve long wondered if the main reason the U.S. and EU continue supporting Abbas and the PA monetarily is the hope he could ultimately buy off terrorist groups like Hamas with an offer to participate in at least a western-propped dictatorship along the lines of Egypt, Jordan or Pakistan. We could have been into the second decade of a Palestinian state by now, and the sole reason is a consensus of Palestinians either tacitly supports or prefers fighting Israel rather than developing a nation. That’s a fundamental difference between Palestinians and Iraqis. The Iraqis lived under a dictator but they lived in a context of “civilization” - however brutal and nightmarish it was. Too many Palestinians, who’ve spent their entire lives in camps and slums, have no such experience of a basic social contract between government and the people. To expect a leap from that to democracy is just not logical. And it’s not racist to say that, it’s just practical.
Comment by frankp_63 — 7/16/2005 @ 5:43 pm
The U.S. State Dept. decision as enunciated by Condi Rice to legitimize Hamas by giving it it a chance to integrate into the PA is a total failure and has emboldened Hamas. Treating terrorist groups as legitimate political parties gives motivation to terrorist groups everywhere to increase the level of their activities in order to get accepted by the U.S. In this sense,Bush’s war on terror is a disaster.
Comment by Larry Shapiro — 7/16/2005 @ 5:48 pm
But…but…but Karl Rove outed a CIA spook…the hurricane’s coming…Tom Cruise and Matt Lauer…everything in the legacy media except important issues. And when important stories come to the fore, especially regarding Israel, the double standard - hell, triple standard - is front and center. I think what’s really happening is that Ariel Sharon and Karl Rove have conspired to have Hamas and Islamic Jihad shoot the rockets to make Abbas look all the more the international statesman he really and truly is. I mean, isn’t this administration being controlled by the IZC? Or is it ZOG? Damn, I keep forgetting. Great stuff…as always.
Comment by Grantman — 7/16/2005 @ 5:50 pm
Well, it’s obvious that this is unrelated to the war on terror and surely was exacerbated by Bush’s ill-advised diversion into Iraq. Oh wait, wrong site. Isn’t about time this happened. Unlike us in Iraq, Israel will have less compunciton to play to the press and public opinion. In fact, they will, as they did in Jenin and Nablus, go house to house and hunt down the terrorists. What will matter more is the reaction in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. I have a sneaking suspicion they are all tired of the Palestinian welfare case, and tired of carrying their water for all these years. It will allow them to sever the relationship as support Hamas wil surely bring the wrath of the US and how many Jordanians and Egyptians will go to Palestine to die the martyr’s death? Er, none.
Comment by Robert Mandel — 7/16/2005 @ 7:40 pm
One can’t escape the thought that perhaps the Israelis were all-too-eager to surrender Gaza because they knew this would happen. A Palestinian failure at self-rule there will quell international pressure on them to surrender the West Bank.
Comment by Kevin L. Connors — 7/16/2005 @ 9:20 pm
Hamas and the Palestinians should be careful. If they push too hard Israel might lose patience and turn them into a large grease spot in Gaza. They would be condemned for it, but they’re always getting condemned anyhow. This applies to the Muslims in general, to paraphrase The Hulk, “don’t make us mad. You wouldn’t like us when we’re mad.” The Palestinians are banking on Israel’s restraint and the Muslim extremists are banking on the rest of us to be restrained. But too many incidents like Bali, Madrid, New York, Beslan and now London may convince people that they must be dealt with harshly no matter the “collateral damage.”
Comment by John Dunshee — 7/16/2005 @ 9:36 pm
Which would you prefere, Hamas or Fatah. I support Fatah all the way.
Comment by Ryan — 7/16/2005 @ 9:42 pm
Hamas or Fatah? What’s the difference. Both are terrorists and there is nothing we can do to change that. The PA must be dismantled, and the Jordan plan applied. Peace will only come if something like the Elon Plan is implemented (www.therightroadtopeace.com)
Comment by Nudnik — 7/17/2005 @ 12:34 pm
I wonder if, after Israel’s pull-out from Gaza, Israel intends to play good side/bad side with the Palestinians. In other words: increasing liberalization and lightening of occupation in the West Bank (preparatory to the eventual necessary Israeli withdrawal) combined with massive retaliation attacks on both terrorists and terrorist infrastructure, with little regard to collateral damage. It seems to me that Israel could use this as an opportunity to show that cooperation (in the West Bank) will be met with gentleness, while confrontation (in Gaza, via attacks on Israel over the wall) will be met with massive strikes. It would certainly be a way to encourage the Palestinians to choose the correct path.
Comment by Jeff Medcalf — 7/17/2005 @ 12:59 pm
Neither, they are two sides of the same coin and both have the same goal - the destruction of Israel, they only differ on the timing and propoganda aspects. Often they do this good cop bad cop (or in this case is it “good” terrorist and bad terrorist?) act so the west can claim how reasonable Fatah is by comparison.
Comment by ak47pundit — 7/17/2005 @ 1:22 pm
#7, Robert. Actually it’s a bit more like the Palestinian Arabs carrying water for the other Arabs. The others have used the Palis for decades as their weapon against Israel and the Jews. The Arabs have colluded in keeping the Palis in camps so as to stoke their hatred of the Jews and be the Arabs’ tool in the war against Israel. The Palis, with the help of the UN which nominally runs the camps, have played into their hands perfectly. Recently The Wahhabist Entity passed a new naturalization law, regulating how Muslims can become subjects of the Saudi gangland family…er monarchy. Palestinian Arabs are expressly prohibited from doing so. Their function is to remain weapons against the Jews. Other than that function, their “Brother Arabs” treat them like dirt, far worse than the Israelis do. The Palis are so far gone that they will accept any thuggish tyrant to rule them, so long as he lets them kill Jews. The limitation on Israel’s freedom of action with respect to the Palis, after the Israelis’ own moral and ethical beliefs, is essentially what the USA will tolerate. Actions that exceed American tolerance will not be done, and leveling Gaza after too many terrorist, mortar, or rocket attacks from there is probably one of those actions.
Comment by Michael Lonie — 7/17/2005 @ 8:04 pm