Iraqi Army Capability
In the latest issue of The Weekly Standard, I made a guess as to the number of fully-capable Iraqi battalions. Here’s a quote from that article, written after my recent trip to Iraq, Afghanistan, Djibouti, and Qatar (see Quick Update at the end of the post):
…How many Iraqi battalions work like Colonel Muhammad’s? Here’s my guess, based on what I’ve gleaned from my best military sources: As of June 2005 there were a half-dozen Iraqi Army battalions capable of running their own operations. But that’s a vast improvement over the zero that existed in July 2004. (I do not include the 36th Commando Battalion in this mix–that elite unit was a very effective force already in 2004.) …
I made this estimate based on whatI learned about specific operations, and heard from troops working with Iraqi Army and Ministry of Interior forces. What units were judged fully “green” (as in “green and ready to go,” not green as in inexperienced) was classified. The metrics were classified as well.
Both the NY Times/IHT and Washington Post have articles on this subject.
Here’s the WPost’s take:
The Pentagon told Congress on Thursday that progress toward establishing democracy in Iraq is on track despite an adaptable and deadly insurgency, but it offered no estimate of when U.S. troops would start withdrawing.
In its most comprehensive public assessment yet of conditions in Iraq, the military released a 23-page report that described progress and problems on the political, economic and security fronts…
…The report says the key will be reaching the point when Iraqi security forces are trained and equipped at a level at which they can assume primary responsibility. The report does not estimate when that will happen…
…Lt. Gen. Walter Sharp, director of strategic plans for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters at the Pentagon that specific measuring tools are useful in gauging the combat capabilities of Iraqi forces. But he said decisions about when Iraqis can take over for U.S. troops will be based in part of the judgment of U.S. commanders.
U.S. officers have developed a method of calculating the combat readiness of the approximately 76,700 Iraqi Army troops. The Pentagon said it “should not and must not” publicly disclose specific data.
“The enemy’s knowledge of such details would put both Iraqi and coalition forces at increased risk,” the report said.
That information, along with details on various possible changes in the level of U.S. forces in Iraq next year, were included in a part of the report that was classified as secret, along with the unclassified report delivered to Congress.
Here’s what the Pentagon apparently said on background:
Pentagon officials said later that only three of the approximately 100 Iraqi army battalions are taking on the insurgents by themselves. About one-third is fully capable of operating against the insurgency, but only with U.S. support.
I suspect this is the number that are rated “green” and fully capable. I think another three to five battalions that are approaching this status (the three that led to my “half dozen” estimate). This tells me that another block of 25 or so battalions are doing better than I thought.
Eric Schmitt writing for the NY Times, said:
About half of Iraq’s new police units are still training and cannot conduct operations, while the other half of the police units and two-thirds of the new Iraqi Army battalions are only “partially capable” of counterinsurgency missions, and then only with U.S. help, according to a declassified Pentagon assessment.
Only “a small number” of Iraqi security forces are capable of fighting the insurgency without U.S. assistance, while about one-third of the army is capable of “planning, executing and sustaining counterinsurgency operations” with allied support, the analysis said.
The assessment, which has not been publicly released, is the most precise analysis of the Iraqis’ readiness that the military has provided to date.
Bush administration officials have repeatedly said that the 160,000 U.S.-led allied troops could not begin to withdraw until Iraqi troops were ready to take over security duties.
The assessment was described in a brief written response that General Peter Pace, the incoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, provided last week to the Senate Armed Services Committee. At Pace’s confirmation hearing June 29, Republicans and Democrats directed him to provide an unclassified accounting of the Iraqis’ security capabilities to allow a fuller public debate. The military had already provided classified assessments to lawmakers.
“We need to know - the American people need to know - the status of readiness of the Iraqi military, which is improving, so that we cannot only understand but appreciate better the roles and missions that they are capable of carrying out,” Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, said at the hearing.
Pace’s statement came as the Pentagon prepared to deliver to Congress a report that cited performance standards and goals on political and economic matters, as well as the training of Iraqi security forces, and a timetable for achieving those goals. The report was due July 11, but the Pentagon missed the deadline. The Defense Department is required to update the assessment every 90 days.
From a single U.S.-trained Iraqi battalion a year ago, the Pentagon says, there are now more than 100 battalions of Iraqi soldiers and paramilitary police units, totaling 171,500 troops. Of that force, about 77,700 are military troops and 93,800 are police and paramilitary police officers. The total is to rise to 270,000 by next summer, when 10 fully equipped, 14,000-man Iraqi Army divisions are to be operational.
U.S. commanders have until now resisted quantifying the abilities of Iraqi units, especially their shortcomings, to avoid giving insurgents any advantage. In Pace’s seven-sentence response, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, he stated, “The majority of Iraqi security forces are engaged in operations against the insurgency with varying degrees of cooperation and support from coalition forces.”
At a Pentagon news conference on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld defended this approach of describing Iraqi units in general terms.
“It’s not for us to tell the other side, the enemy, the terrorists, that this Iraqi unit has this capability, and that Iraqi unit has this capability,” Rumsfeld said. “The idea of discussing weaknesses, if you will, strengths and weaknesses of ‘this unit has a poor chain of command,’ or ‘these forces are not as effective because their morale’s down’ - I mean, that would be mindless to put that kind of information out.”
QUICK UPDATE: The tipjar money bridged the gap for the cost of the trip to CENTCOM that the Univ of Texas travel grant, the Weekly Standard, and New Criterion didn’t cover. I have had the usual four or five extra expenses (trip and post-trip). For those inclined to hit the tipjar, now’s the time to do it. For those folks who have already contributed, thanks again. I am still sending out thank you emails via the bayblogdonate page.
The actual report sent to Congress can be found here. DoD press conference here, and a caveat on the report is here.
Comment by tbrosz — 7/22/2005 @ 1:08 pm
I’m looking out my office window at some beautiful Crape Myrtles that are in full bloom. The enire trees are covered with magenta, pink and lavender blossoms. These trees were planted back in 1996 when this building was completed. I remember that when these trees were first planted that they were tied to posts so that they would grow straight. The posts were in the ground next to the trees for several years. When the trees were strong enough to stand on their own, the posts were removed. The infant Iraqi democracy is like the Crape Myrtle sappling. The US and Coalition and other supporting forces are the posts that will help it grow straight. When Iraq is strong enough to stand on its own the support posts will be removed. To remove the posts prematurely is to invite disaster. One day Iraq will be blooming again.
Comment by Brad J — 7/22/2005 @ 1:11 pm
I’d like to see more accounting for the number of Iraqis who have been killed fighting — or even just lining up to learn how to fight, or murdered when unarmed — the enemy. My own rough guesstimating puts it above 3000 now, which is a grisly currency of calibrating their willingness to lay their lives on the line. We should also not forget that in South Vietnam, twice as many men died serving in the ARVN — from a much, much smaller population base — than in US forces, to defeat the common enemy.
Comment by JimO — 7/22/2005 @ 1:34 pm
Eric Schmitt (NYT): “From a single U.S.-trained Iraqi battalion a year ago, the Pentagon says, there are now more than 100 battalions of Iraqi soldiers and paramilitary police units, totaling 171,500 troops. Of that force, about 77,700 are military troops and 93,800 are police and paramilitary police officers. The total is to rise to 270,000 by next summer, when 10 fully equipped, 14,000-man Iraqi Army divisions are to be operational.” One point to add here is that army troops who do not make careers of the army will need to be replaced. Every addition to the police adds people who will be police officers for the rest of their careers.
Comment by David Billington — 7/22/2005 @ 1:53 pm
This post is a bit confusing. If the information on Iraqi preparedness is classified, then why exactly are you reporting on it and making it general knowledge? Or is it just reporting on the specific Iraqi battalions in question that’s classified? And if the Penatgon is classifying this information when an intrepid reporter can figure out this information, then why even classify this in the first place? Conumdrums abound. ED: I recommend you take a quick Internet trip to http://www.strategypage.com where these kind of open source, public assessments of military capabilities get made every day. I made an educated guess about Iraqi capabilities –and that guess appeared in an opinion article in the Weekly Standard. My best guess could easily have been wrong. (Turns out it was wrong in absolute numbers, ie, three instead of “a half-dozen”; I was also overly pessimistic in terms of Iraqi units approaching “green” status– the one-third of a hundred battalions figure surprised me and impressed me.) When I returned from my latest trip to the Middle East I had several people ask me the following question, or one like it: “Austin, you’re a soldier and you just got back from Iraq. In your opinion, how many Iraqi military units can cut it? Are they getting better?” Those are all reasonable questions– especially since I can compare June 2005 to August 2004. So I offered an opinion — an opinion with a figure instead of a namby-pamby “they’re getting better.” No DOD source ever gave a battalion readiness figure (until the Pace report of yesterday), at least not one I’m aware of. I’m glad DOD’s given us a figure. The specific “metrics” (what constitutes being fully capable) are classified and as far as I know, remain so, though anyone who has ever served in a combat unit can tick off eight or nine (or more) actions a unit must be able to accomplish in short order if it is combat effective . Information on a specific unit’s readiness level is classified (or I should say, is most likely classified, since I don’t know, and didn’t ask). We do know 36th Commando Bn is ready and BG Horst told me the unit I asked him about was conducting its own operations. I drew the reasonable conclusion (given Col Muhammad’s unit’s accomplishments) that it is “fully mission capable” or darn close to it. The big story is the training trend line is positive. If we accept that DOD thinks three battalions are fully capable, then 30 or so are getting there. That’s three divisions. Why classify it in the first place? There’s a war going on, is the first answer. However, the second answer is based on the “way things really work.” Tthe Iraqi Army units probably know what their overall assessment is and I’ll bet they talk about it. Some may brag about it. Which may be one reason DOD went ahead and released their June assessments. And thank you for your question. I rarely answer comments because I don’t have time, but this is a good one.
Comment by Frank — 7/22/2005 @ 3:58 pm
While counting noses is interesting, what matters most is resolve. Resolve to complete the mission is required of both the US, the coalition at large, and the Iraqi people. To an extent, classifying readiness of Iraqi forces is a sideshow. If the numbers are less than the Left would like, a protest ensues. Any sane minded American would like to see the mission completed tomorrow, but that’s not reality. To receive the blow-by-blow assessments on a drip basis only serves to diminish our resolve and test our patience.
Comment by Captain America — 7/22/2005 @ 6:51 pm
Hmmm. Math. I’m having a hard time envisioning 10 Iraqi Divisions. We have 10 named Divisions (+extra Sep Bdes) and we have roughly 270 Million people to draw on. Iraq is the size of Texas, and has a population of roughly 27 Million. People I know, on the ground with the MNSTC-I, have said that the Iraqi Army is working towards 27 BNs. That’s 9 Brigades or 3 Divisions worth. Which seems about right, again, considering the population. I say “worth”, as Brigade OPs are not simply really big BN Ops, let alone Division Ops. Caveat: I’m on-board, and we’re being wildly successful, but “100 Bn’s” C’mon, Austin, that number makes no sense on the face of it, and immediately screams “typo”. It should not have been accepted without rigourous scrutiny. ED:So let’s do the math. 100 BNs times 500 troops per BN. That’s 50,000. Open sources say 250.000 to 270,000 troops (one I saw a few months ago said 220,000 but I don’t recall where that was). If most of the battalionss are security-type BNs deployed in cities and regions (with nominal brigade structures, and the cities picking up the sustainment function), 100 battalions seems quite reasonable. But you raise a very good point. One question I wish I had asked was “MOD and MOI– which BNs are which?” Iraqi Army should mean Iraqi Army — but I suspect the total of 100 deployed BNs will mean MOI and MOD BNs. We’ll see. The comment in this thread about resolve is dead-on, t0o. Why 500? I think that’s a reasonable figure. 36th Commando has 400+ troops, and it’s a battalion. The Iraqi marine unit is being described as a battalion (though will probably be deployed in companies and platoons). It will have 400 to 500 marines. As I said, let’s see how this pans out in the next twelve months. Thanks for the excellent comment.
Comment by Tommy G — 7/22/2005 @ 6:51 pm