Austin Bay Blog

A few weeks I linked to a Harold Hutchison post (at StrategyPage) analyzing Japanese military strength (see “Japan As A Military Superpower”). The Japanese naval build-up isn’t a phenomenon that began six weeks ago — it’s been over a decade in the making. Why? One word answer: China. The major news media discovered China’s arms build-up this summer, but Japan didn’t. (For that matter, the US didn’t, nor did StrategyPage.) China said it would pursue the “four modernizations,” with military modernization being one of the four. The Chinese began serious modernization after their border war with Vietnam in 1979 — when the Vietnamese pasted them. Harold notes Japan began its modernization program in 1991.

Harold sent me an email that made this point once again:

According to the AP, Japan’s ruling party has been proposing a larger military and a more aggressive posture to go with it. This is part of a buildup that has been going on since 1991. Modern destroyers have been entering service – the Kongo, Murasame, and Takanami classes are modern vessels. Japan’s posture is slated to extend now to assisting allies. This is of particular importance since the U.S. and Japan agreed back in February to pursue the same objectives vis-à-vis Taiwan, a matter of mutual interest.

One of the other, less heralded moves, is Japan’s decision to get into the arms export market on a limited basis, ostensibly to help the United States with ballistic missile defense (Japan is a major partner in this). While this is true, This has huge implications for Taiwan as well. In 2001, the United States agreed to provide Taiwan eight modern diesel-electric submarines. However, the U.S. does not make diesel-electric submarines. The United States has also been unable to find someone from Europe willing to sell. But Japan makes modern diesel-electric submarines (the latest class is the Oyashio-class).

Japan is understandably taking this more active posture because of China. China has been not only engaging in a major military buildup which includes modern submarines and destroyers, but twice since the mid-1990s, Chinese generals have made comments that could be construed as threats to use nuclear weapons in the event the situation with Taiwan breaks out into open warfare. Japan, which remains the only country to have been on the receiving end of nuclear weapons used in anger, cannot exactly be thrilled to have observed these threats.

Ultimately, the Chinese buildup – combined with the loose lips of two generals – is leading to a consequence that hasn’t been obvious: Japan is slowly evolving from its pacifist stance, and has moved from merely acting if attacked to being willing to come to the aid of allies. Its new class of helicopter-carrying destroyers is slated to be about the size of the British Invincible-class carriers (roughly 13,000 tons) currently in service and the American Iwo Jima-class LPHs (11,000 tons) that were retired in the 1990s. One of the concept designs for this new DDH looks like a carrier, with an offset island. There is a chance that this will not be, for all intents and purposes, a carrier. There is a chance I will get a date with Jennifer Love Hewitt next weekend. Readers are invited to decide which is more likely.

Japan has a tradition of turning out quality personnel and weapons systems. If they are forced into a fight, they will more than hold their own, and will, in all likelihood, be working with the 7th Fleet.

The AP link leads to an article on Japan’s Liberal Party’s proposed “defense revisions” to Japan’s constitution:

Japan needs a full-fledged military for its national defense and to help it play a greater role in international security, the ruling party said Monday in a draft proposal of revisions to the country’s pacifist constitution.

The Liberal Democratic Party’s constitution draft committee on Monday presented the document, which cuts the “no war” clause from Article 9 and outlines an expanded role for the military.

“In addition to activities needed for self defense … it can take part in efforts to maintain international peace and security under international cooperation, as well as to keep fundamental public order in our country,” it said.

In an effort to calm worries about a resurgence of Japanese militarism, which still haunts much of Asia 60 years after the end of World War II, the draft said Japan remains a pacifist nation and renounces the use of military force to settle international disputes.

It also limits overseas troop deployment to activities for international cooperation for global peace and safety.

Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, drafted by U.S. occupation forces and unchanged since 1947, prohibits maintaining a military for warfare, though the Japanese government has interpreted that to mean the nation can possess armed forces for self-defense, allowing the 240,000 Self-Defense Forces to exist.