UPDATED: Hamas Wins– The Slow Civil War Takes A Twist
ABC reports Hamas edged out Fatah — so the exit polls were wrong on the winner, but correct in calling a close election.
Key grafs:
Palestinian election officials confirmed early Thursday that Hamas had won a large majority of the seats up for grabs in electoral districts in the West Bank and Gaza.
Half the seats were chosen on a national list and the other half by districts. While the national voting appeared to be close, election officials said Hamas had won a large majority in the district races. Hamas apparently took advantage of divisions in Fatah; the long-ruling party fielded multiple candidates in many districts, allowing the Islamic group to capitalize.
Initial exit polls had forecast a slight edge for Fatah, with Hamas coming in a strong second. The polls predicted that neither party would have a majority and would have to rely on smaller parties to form a coalition.
However, on Thursday morning, Hamas officials said the group had won up to 75 seats giving it a solid majority in the132-member parliament.
Two diplomatic reactions:
Reactions to the Hamas victory streamed in from around the world. Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, according to news reports, called it a “very, very, very bad result.” But Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European Union’s external relations commissioner, said Hamas must be “ready to work for peace” with Israel if it joins the Palestinian government.
If Hamas pursues the war path, the Israelis will beat them and beat them badly. If Hamas “accomodates” Israel (ie, accomodates reality) then Hamas will have to eat its strident rhetoric. Is Hamas prepared to fix the potholes (there are many) and pick up the garbage? Nope– Hamas is prepped to fight an insurgency, with friendly powers footing the bills. Fatah now becomes the opposition and is free to criticize. Fatah also has the US as a de facto ally. Who funds Hamas? Saddam is gone. There are friendly Saudis, and there’s the EU. Provoking a war with Israel may play well in the alleys but it won’t impress the banks.
UPDATE: From the AP: “The Palestinian Cabinet resigned on Thursday following the apparent Hamas victory in legislative elections, Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia’s office said, setting the stage for the Islamic group to lead a new Palestinian government.
Under Palestinian law, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas must now ask the party that holds a majority in the legislature to form a new government.”
UPDATE 2: Superb report and analysis at Oxblog.
UPDATE 3: Comment 1– I agree– a put up or shut up moment. Do you believe Hamas will choose to pick up the garbage and fix the potholes? I think Hamas will, ultimately, after several months of rhetorical garbage punctuated by bombs. Here’s another scenario: The Fatah-Hamas slow civil war accelerates. The conspiracy theorists will accuse Israel of provoking it, but that’s false– it’s been going on for years. To push the scenario a step further, Fatah has Israel for an ally, Hamas has –Syria? Iran? Al Qaeda?
Comment 1:”Sounds like a put up or shut up moment. I’m pretty confident I know what direction Hamas will choose.”
Sounds like a put up or shut up moment. I’m pretty confident I know what direction Hamas will choose.
Comment by JSAllison — 1/26/2006 @ 7:57 am
No negotiations and no aid to the Palestinian authority while Hamas is in charge.
Comment by HaroldHutchison — 1/26/2006 @ 8:39 am
Well, some time ago Steven denBeste predicted the outcome of the wall would be a Palestinian civil war. It has been simmering. The Hamas victory is indeed a put up or shut up moment, but I have little confidence that Hamas will suddenly change its spots and negotiate and accept a two state solution. There is a lot of ways it could go, but I don’t think there will be a settlement any time soon. This process has a long way to go before resolution is thinkable.
Comment by lgude — 1/26/2006 @ 10:41 am
Hamas Wins Palestinian Election - Is Death To Follow? It is unrealistic, unwise and even immoral to ask Israel to sit down with a government that contains people who believe it is their right to murder women, children and innocent civilians to achieve their goals. …
Trackback by Common Folk Using Common Sense — 1/26/2006 @ 11:46 am
The US gives the Palestinians millions every year. Now that Hamas, a designated terrorist group by the US, is the government of the Palestinians, will the US continue to fund them?
Comment by marc — 1/26/2006 @ 12:00 pm
Marc… If you don’t ind my chiming in on the discussion… Short answer is no. But the degree to which they ‘talk’ with them in order to guage them is less clear. As Secretary Rice said today, “…you cannot have one foot in politics and the other in terror. Our position on Hamas has therefore not changed.” Expect the EU to follow the American lead (to some degree) regarding the funding of the PA. To some degree, surely Iran will step up to the plate for the Hamas-controlled PA. That puts the already (domestically) nervous mullahcracy in the tenuous position of propping up two outside regimes (Syria/PA). They likely cannot completely replace US an EU contributions with sacrificing something domestically, which they are a bit nervous to do. The question really seems to be (to this observer), will Hamas’ inability to address domestic issues with increasingly anemic resources spell their rejection by the majority of Palestinians before or after attacks on Israel can no longer be resisted by Hamas thereby drawing a crushing offensive from the IDF (the scale of which the Palestinians have yet to have witnessed) or before infighting between Hamas and the various Fatah factions evolves into an all-out civil war. Remember that the leader of Hamas was just in Damascus meeting with Ahmadinejad, Assad, Hezbollah, the PFLP-GC and other disparate terrorist groups in order to form the new terrorist version of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’, unified to destroy Israel and the US while preserving the Assad regime, lest its fall inspire Iranians to rise up against their own oppressive regime. Attending this strategic planning meeting is not an action of a ‘kinder, gentler’ Hamas with political aspirations. It is the action of a terrorist organization being what it is. It is only a matter of time. Hamas has a new, but short, lease on political life.
Comment by Steve Schippert — 1/26/2006 @ 12:48 pm
That question was asked of Pres. Bush this morning at the press conference. He stalled a bit but did say that the US would not deal with a government who’s goal was the elimination of the Israeli state. I suspect that they’d better make nice in a hurry or their aid will be cut.
Comment by Jeff — 1/26/2006 @ 12:53 pm
Quite right on the put up or shut up moment for Hamas. However, your assertion regarding Hamas not being interested in the “potholes” of day to day governing is way off-base. If you read the articles, or spend time in the region, coming out as to why most people voted for Hamas it is specifically because of their ability to provide the day-in/day-out basic services of government which Fatah was too corrupt/uninterested to provide. Editor: I’m very aware of Hamas’ social action work. I used the “potholes” as a metaphor for the day to day responsibility of government. Your comment is right to note that Hamas has taken some aspects of government more seriously than Fatah.
Comment by George — 1/26/2006 @ 1:19 pm
I haven’t seen any remark yet on what I think is a real advantage to this turn of events for Palestinians, and Israelis for that matter. Not that this outweighs all the risks, potential violence, Israeli retribution, etc. Any “peace deal” with Palestinians was doomed to fail until the majority of Palestinians were “at the table.” Okay, so now they are. They have voted as a majority for Hamas, although no doubt as much as a vote against Fatah, along with a recognition that Hamas has mobilized a significant public works component alongside their acts of terrorism. I don’t imagine at all that Hamas overnight will become trustworthy. But if they decide to make some kind of peace, this time, they have the military muscle to quiet dissent (if they want), and Israel is face-to-face with their real enemy at the negotiating table. That’s what it took for Begin and Sadat to create peace between Egypt and Israel. Again, not that it will be the same, but there’s at least the right players at the table….
Comment by dadmanly — 1/26/2006 @ 2:04 pm
There is one advantage to this outcome that I haven’t seen expressed. At least Israel has the opportunity to be face-to-face at the negotiating table with their real enemies. Before, any peace deal with the PLO was so much posturing, and ignored the reality of low intensity conflict going on outside. A deal meant nothing, becuase the hardliners (such as Hamas) would never be on board. That may still be the case. But, at least this time, if Hamas actually makes some concessions or agrees to some arrangement, they have the military muscle to quiet dissent. And, this time the Palestinian people committed to them as the path for the answer. Violent they may be, but Arafat they are not. If you think about it, wouldn’t someone have said the same about the old warriors Begin and Sadat? Never those two, never in a million years. And then there was a lasting if uneasy peace between Egypt and Israel.
Comment by dadmanly — 1/26/2006 @ 2:10 pm
Bearing in mind that all parties in this conflict have been “terrorists” at some point in the past 60 years, and that Hamas was initially fostered by the Israielis and the US as a counter to the “commies” in th PLO, no one has clean skirts. Add to that the fact that the PLO/Fatah crowd has been hopelessly corrupt for the past several dacades and that Hamas has been running a lot of the clinics, schools and social services, we’d be stupid not to try to encourage them away from violence and toward political dialogue.
Comment by Pat Ryan — 1/26/2006 @ 2:16 pm
I’m not sure why Isreal has to negotiate about anything with Hamas or Fatah. They are building a wall for a defensable seperation of the two populations. I’m sure they will be content to let the civil war begin and strike back at the public face of the Hamas government if they reignite the terror war. Let the aide be cut-off, it’s only a subsidy that allows Fatah or Hamas to cling to power through corruption and allows disfunctional societies to maintain the status quo.
Comment by Gary Bezowsky — 1/26/2006 @ 10:09 pm
“Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it” Israel has been saying for years they coudln’t negotiate with Fatah, they needed someone else…wish fullfilled. Put up a wall, Arabs in Israel will in a few years surpass Jews due to their overwhelming birth rate, wish fullfiled. Will they fix potholes in the street, they not only take care of the potholes they set up and pay for schools, clinics, feed the poor and care for the elderly and are considered by everyone including the Israeli’s as uncorrupt, one of the main reasons they won at the polls, wish fullfiled. Give them a chance at real Democracy and they will choose their own leaders, they did, Hamas, wish fullfiled.
Comment by Neil Russillo — 1/27/2006 @ 12:42 pm
Oh and one more thing, cut off their money, Iran and Saudia Arabia will step up what they give them now and only give them even more influence, think about that next time you go fill up your tank, somewhere down the line that $50 you put in your SUV will be going to support Hamas
Comment by Neil Russillo — 1/27/2006 @ 12:48 pm