Hard Spin For Hurricane Hugo (Chavez)
StrategyPage notes that the Dutch may be sending Venezuela’s El Jefe a message.
March 1, 2006: Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has been making noises about running the Dutch out of nearby Caribbean islands, areas that the Netherlands have owned for centuries. In response, the Dutch are trying to orchestrate a suitable, and scary, message for Chavez. The Dutch are trying to get the United States to make a port call with an aircraft carrier, and its accompanying warships, at one of their Caribbean islands. This would be part of a series of “messages” that they’re sending to Venezuela. An additional “message” is an invitation to the Venezuelans to take part in a navy/marine exercise that the Dutch are going to run in the Caribbean later this year. This will have U.S., British, French, and even Swedish participation, primarily as a way of demonstrating that if Chavez pulls something against the Dutch-owned islands, he may get a bloody nose. Even without the port call, it’s unlikely that the United States would just stand by if Venezuela made a move on Dutch Caribbean islands.
The Dutch maintain a small but highly trained marine infantry force and had an army battalion deployed in Iraq. Those units could be deployed to the Caribbean. Chavez can create trouble throughout the hemisphere -via -subversion, agit-prop– but an amphibious/airmobile invasion would be a big mistake.
The Dutch are in a world of hurt if Chavez does invade. They’re going to be at the end of an awfully long logistics chain, and they do not have the power-projection of the Royal Navy in 1982. The Netherlands Antilles are outside the area set forth in the North Atlantic Treaty, if I am not mistaken, so assistance under Article V is going to be iffy. If he takes the Netherlands Antilles (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao), I don’t think the Dutch have the ability to take them back. ED NOTE: You’re right, taking them back is a very different situation from defending them. I think the Dutch can defend them. In order to do that they have to be prepared.
Comment by HaroldHutchison — 3/1/2006 @ 7:59 am
I think the supply concerns are legitimate, but I also suspect the Dutch can count on support from the US and UK- and I’m unimpressed by the Venezuelan navy’s order of battle, if hazegray.org is to be trusted. But what about “unconventional warfare”? That’s one of those unknowables.
Comment by TrustButVerify — 3/1/2006 @ 10:52 am
Chavez would be making the same mistake Saddam made in invading Kuwait. He would be giving his opponents in the US an opportunity to crush him. It is ridiulous for him to suggest that the Dutch islands are some kind of threat to Venezuela anyway. Their chief commerce is in hosting tourist. Perhaps he wants to damage the tourist trade. I am sure that the sailors would enjoy a port call at one of these islands.
Comment by Merv Benson — 3/1/2006 @ 10:56 am
[…] Terrorism, Border/Immigration at 10:29 am by Terresa Monroe-Hamilton Courtesy of Austin Bay: StrategyPage notes that the Dutch may be sending Venezuela’s El Jefe a message. March 1, 2006: V […]
Pingback by NoisyRoom.net » Hard Spin For Hurricane Hugo (Chavez) — 3/1/2006 @ 12:30 pm
Considering the number of US tourists visiting the Netherlands Antilles at any given-time, it would seem suicidal for El Jefe’ to overtly assualt the islands to drive the Dutch out. We “took” greneda over a few medical students “in danger”, what would our respnse be to one or two sinking cruise-liners, or a few accdentally shot-down 747’s?
Comment by Ted B. — 3/1/2006 @ 1:39 pm
The Netherlands Antilles may be out of the NATO area, but the US can still act and help the Dutch. In fact, I would insist, just to bloody Mr. Chavez’s nose. I think Mr. Chavez ought to carefully reconsider his Gen. Galiteri moment.
Comment by Mikey — 3/1/2006 @ 3:14 pm
Yeah. the USN considers the Carribean it’s private lake. Chavez annoys the US at the best of times. I’d bet every penny I had, that US would help the Dutch, up to and including providing aircover and group troups, and the logistics tail from the Gulf Coast isn’t very far. Neither are the other islands who may not view Hugoization very warmly. AND I doubt the locals onthe Dutch Antilles have much interest either. Hugo would be a very stupid man if he twisted that tail.
Comment by Fred — 3/1/2006 @ 8:36 pm
Not quite the same as the Falkland Island war but similar. We should have that port call!
Comment by Marcus Aurelius — 3/3/2006 @ 7:27 am
Besides the ABC islands the Netherlands have three other (albeit smaller) Islands in the area: Saba, St. Eustatius (Statia) and St.Maarten, which would make nice staging areas. The own Two KDC-10 tanker aircraft, and about 100 F-16AM fighters (roughly comparable to the block 50 F-16C). All fighter pilots (except for the latest trainees) have flown combat hours over the past 15 years over Bosnia, Serbia and Afghanistan (initially out of Manas and presently out of Kabul, Afghanistan). Most of the AH-64D crews have had combat hours over Irak, Afghanistan and Eritrea. The Royal Netherlands Navy has spent time in support of all major naval operations of the past 15 years. Almost all army and Marine combat units have served time in the Balkans, Iraq or are about to do so in Aghanistan. Now, about the Venezolan forces… Best equipment: a dozen or so block-15 F-16A fighters, supported by. An ancient naval force. Combat experience… nil. Even without the US we would do rather nicely. But thanks for the offer to assist us.
Comment by Ronaldv — 3/9/2006 @ 5:36 pm
The Dutch Royal Navy is one of the most sophisticated navies in the World. The Rotterdam Class Amphibious Assault Vessels can drop off Marine Batallions and though they can’t launch airplanes F-16s could fly missions from the other Dutch islands in teh Caraebian . The pilots and material are top notch. A Dutch F-16 was the only non-american plane to take out a Serb MiG during Kosovo. Chavez would be a bloody idiot, we can even blow the hell out of him on our own. The only concern being our politicians.
Comment by HJ Tulp — 3/10/2006 @ 12:40 pm
Latins and Latin America is with Chavez, hope Chavez allies with Lula in Brasil, with South America united, the cheese heads cloggies are no match. being dutch aint much …
Comment by Correia — 3/14/2006 @ 10:09 am
Chavez should be mad if he dares to invade, the dutch would defeat the ven’s in a hartbeat, and what do we got to lose we have the good ol america on our side, bush would not hesitate, to attack, cuz of all of the names he’s been called by Chavez. What the people of aruba + netherlands antilles (including me) gonna do if attacked enlist in the dutch marines, and defend at all cost.
Comment by guy from aruba — 3/14/2006 @ 12:01 pm
Nice analysis of the military advantage of the Netherlands. But Chavez has one unconventional weapon in his favor — OIL. If he would cut the oil output, it would send crude prices through the roof all over the world. The US is importing more oil from Venezuela than from Iraq.
Comment by Andreas — 3/31/2006 @ 6:46 am
The military side seems like a big advantage for the NL. But what if Chavez uses one of his biggest weapons : OIL !! The US is greatly depending on venezuelan oil imports, especially after Katrina. And if that really escalates (big if) and if the US gets involved, he could cut oil exports and send crude prices through the roof. Worldwide. Suddenly that could look more like “Iraq III” rather than Falkland and have the US marching into Venezuela.
Comment by Andreas — 3/31/2006 @ 6:56 am
lol chavez profesional army is 78.000 that won’t be enough + they have only 2, navy ships. I think they can become a threat in the next 5 or so years, chavez is already building his military, buying ak 101’s and i heard he’s purchasing mig’s.
Comment by dude! — 4/1/2006 @ 2:13 pm
I cannot imagine that Chavez is serious about Aruba. He’s just making more noise to present himself as “Generalissimo Latin America”. If he played the OIL card, other forces would find a way to make him “disappear”.
Comment by Tom — 4/5/2006 @ 8:55 am
Chavez would prove his idiocy even more than he has already if he actually makes a move. He would be crushed by the Dutch, American, British and possibly even French military strength already in the area. Lula and that Bolivian madman aren’t stupid enough to back him. He would dig his own grave.
Comment by Dennis — 8/18/2007 @ 6:10 pm
Of coarse no one on the world can prevent a few missles from falling on our heads, since Venezuela is only 20 minutes away.
Comment by Chris — 8/21/2007 @ 8:48 pm
Will the Venezualen people/army support Chavez? The Dutch forces had to endure major budget cuts for the last 10+ years. In a war every one lose.
Comment by Talbot — 8/22/2007 @ 8:34 pm