Austin Bay Blog

The failed state after Canada? Try the European Union after a French “non” to the proposed EU constitution. Realclearpolitics posts this essay: “Why France Will Sink Europe’s Constitution” (by Charles Wyplosz). Christopher Caldwell in The Weekly Standard also addresses the pending French vote. (Caldwell compares a recent Jacques Chirac tv performance to Ross Perot’s fateful Larry King Live debate with Al Gore–with Chirac as Perot.)

My views are similar to powerline’s: I’m not so sure a French “non” vote is in the cards. Polls are one thing, the actual tally another. I suspect a weak “Oui” won’t be quite as damaging to EU prospects as a narrow “Non”– but don’t let anyone tell you a “yes” vote is a triumph for Chirac, France, or European unity. The public struggle in France indicates just how frail and fragmented a notion “Europe” really is. Wyplosz argues the French people know they are in trouble economically and politically, but are too afraid to make tough choices. I think France is increasingly ripe for a 21st century revolution. However, it lacks is a revolutionary platform and a revolutionary leader. The insistent soundbite is “There is no Plan B” (no alternative to the EU as envisioned by France’s current leadership). In the aftermath of a “non” vote a leader who can articulate “Plan B” will get a hearing.

From Wyplosz’s essay:

If public opinion polls are to be believed, on May 29 the French will reject the European Union’s draft constitutional treaty. Because all EU member countries must ratify the constitution, a French “Non” will, in effect, kill it.

Amazing as this turn of events seems, it has been long in the making. It is amazing because France is not just a founding member of the European Community, but also has been the main driving force behind all major steps toward “ever closer union.” But French opposition was also predictable because, for over a decade now, France has veered away from Europe and now finds itself increasingly isolated. Of course, Europe has also moved away from France through successive enlargements, but the main roots of the estrangement lie in France itself.

The French regard with great sadness their declining status and prestige - not only in world politics, but also in culture, science and, importantly, language. Europe, in their view, was always a way of reclaiming world influence.

For three decades, this worked. France and Germany had forged an alliance that called the shots in Europe. Not interested in geopolitical power - a legacy of its Nazi past - Germany was content to back France’s ambitions as long as the Common Market allowed it to be Europe’s economic powerhouse.

But that alliance is unraveling as Germany’s own status declines, owing to its mediocre economic performance and the loss of its prestigious Deutschemark. Moreover, Germany is increasingly interested in exercising political influence on its own; as a result, it is no longer happy with what it gets from the alliance with France.

At the same time, successive EU enlargements over the decades have brought in other powerful contenders, chiefly Spain and the UK, as well as smaller countries that are unwilling to bow before French-German leadership. In short, France has lost control of Europe. This is not new, but it has only recently started to sink in, and it hurts.

He adds this:

Humbled by economic malaise and loss of influence, the French are scared. They fear the future, because the future means either market-oriented reforms or further economic and political downgrading, both of which are seen as unacceptable, if only because they clash with French self-esteem…

He ends with the thought: “Scared people rarely make wise choices.”

Here’s Wyplosz’ bio: “Charles Wyplosz is Professor of International Economics and Director of the International Centre for Money and Banking Studies at the Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva.”

Chirac’s anti-Americanism has been a pompous deflection act — it’s easier to blame America instead of confronting and addressing the sources of French decline.

UPDATE: Thanks for the comments. Comments 3 and 4– your comments lead to a thought. Does a “no” vote in France create a political opportunity for a classic liberal leader who can address public angst while demonstrating the virtue of “local” democracy over “Euro” bureaucracy? The obvious answer is “sure, if such a soul exists.” Name names if you can, but what would be his platform, beyond the rhetoric I just suggested?