UPDATED: “Cascading Effects” — al-Lbbi’s Notebook
Commanders and planners — at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels– always look for the chance to so shatter or demoralize an enemy that his forces lose cohesion. When one particular action succeeds in achieving this goal it’s said to have created “cascading effects.” Think of an avalanche. An avalanche is a pure “cascading effect” –it starts with a single snowball or pebble, but as the snowball roll and gains momentum, s suddenly an entire mountainside is at risk.
Here’s an off-the-top-of-my-head example of a “cascading effect” at the tactical level. A battalion is pinned down by dug-in enemy infantry. A squad attacks an enemy pillbox and destroys it. A platoon moves through the now undefended zone (which the pillbox covered) and gets behind the dug-in enemy. The platoon starts attacking enemy defenses from the rear and suddenly the entire enemy position is compromised. The enemy infantry has to retreat. Knocking out the key pillbox produced tactical “cascading effects.”
At the strategic level, pro-democracy demonstrations in Beirut are arguably a “cascading effect” of the democratic elections in Iraq.
Which leads to Al Qaeda’s “operations chief,” Abu Faraj al-Libbi. ABC News reported today that US intel got ahold of al-Libbi’s own little black book. (The link is via AT&T and may not be permanent.)
Here’s the lede:
U.S. officials are working feverishly to decipher numbers and apparent codes in a notebook retrieved from suspected al Qaeda leader Abu Faraj al-Libbi, ABC News has learned.
Al-Libbi — believed to be third in command of al Qaeda leader after Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri — was arrested by Pakistani authorities on Monday.
He is suspected of leading two failed assassination attempts on the life of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.
Sources said officials believe al-Libbi’s seized notebook contains “hot” contact information. They said officials are hopeful the notebook contains useful information because al-Libbi was stunned when he was captured.
One senior official described al-Libbi as “shocked” and enraged.
Correctly interpreting and then acting on the information in al-Libbi’s address book could create “cascading effects” throughout Al Qaeda. Fighting a terror network is very different than the conventional war “pillbox” scenario I just discussed, but “cracking” al-Libbi’s black book amounts to cracking a terrorists’ first line of defense– the ability to hide.
The ABC report also says:
“He thought he was invincible,” the source said. “He was caught with his pants down. This was not the time and place of his choosing.”
Al-Libbi was trying to destroy the notebook when he was apprehended, multiple sources said.
Al Qaeda’s leaders exhibit the criminal arrogance of John Gotti, the mob boss that thought he’d never go down. But down he went. THe Pakistanis ought to put him on tv. Show the invincible man in a jail cell. Let him radiate arrogance behind a set of cold steel bars.
UPDATE: The terror was is definitely a “looking glass” war — yes, the black book could be disinformation, and the comment suggesting that the black book story was “leaked” to cause Al Qaeda cells to react hastily is a possible scenario. I doubt that the black book’s is fictional. But– I am certain it is not the Rosetta Stone. In my pillbox scenario, the platoon had to take action to create the “cascading effects.” The intel and police follow-up on al-Libbi’s arrest would be the War on Terror equivalent. My bet is the first 48 hours were the critical opportunity, when the information was red hot. Then the black book story is leaked, to see who jumps.
UPDATE 2: Is al-Libbi such a big shot after all? I don’t have a link but here’s a quote from a London Times article.
…?Al-Libbi is just a ?middle-level? leader,? said Jean-Charles Brisard, a French intelligence investigator and leading expert on terrorism finance. ?Pakistan and US authorities have completely overestimated his role and importance. He was never more than a regional facilitator between Al-Qaeda and local Pakistani Islamic groups.? …
The Times led with this:
According to European intelligence experts, however, Abu Faraj al-Libbi was not the terrorists? third in command, as claimed, but a middle-ranker derided by one source as ?among the flotsam and jetsam? of the organisation.
Good news it might have been, but I am troubled that you and I know about it via ABC news.
Comment by TigerHawk — 5/6/2005 @ 10:29 pm
Show him in his dress he was captured in. Considering he was dressed as a woman.
Comment by Sandy P — 5/7/2005 @ 12:39 am
I share tigerhawks concern. Whenever a major is captured I have mixed feelings, happy to hear it but I’d rather you didn’t tell me til later…much later. The other posibility is that this is a stratigic leak forcing others to make a move and exposing themselves. This could also be is a disinformation campain saying thay have somthing that they really dont.
Comment by joefrommass — 5/7/2005 @ 7:02 am
High probability that this is disinformation. The pros would never give up an operational advantage like this disclosure until they had to. And there was no discernable reason why they had to - therefore disinformation. The good news is that even this can be useful when combined with proper signals intel. If we can get the bad guys to talk on the phone we can listen in. Question is do the bad guys have proper comm discipline? The farther down the chain of command the higher numbers of amateurs and the less likelyhood that they have the tradecraft (logistics also) to operate properly. Nice touch to setup a photo op behind bars. This is the ME we are talking about here - home of the head on a platter, so images like that are effective in breaking enemy morale.
Comment by RKV — 5/7/2005 @ 8:59 am
The al-Libbi “get” was a good one. The fact that he was in a burkha, was trying to destroy his little black book, was enraged when his captors showed up dressed the same, indicates they were unexpected. Even the best terrorists make mistakes, especially when they are tired, sick, distracted. The release of the news of his capture was disappointing although the insiders probably knew it within minutes. This guy will talk. His capture, his manner of disguise, where he hid, how he hid, are probably SOP for the entire network, so this is also very good intel. There is hope that the Paks will share it in good time and in complete form.
Comment by Lee W. Dodson — 5/7/2005 @ 12:30 pm
The leak seems to have come from the Pakistani side, which is consistent with the widespread support for the jihadis in the ISI and armed forces. Unless this capture was faked, the leak was part of the scheme, and they’ve really had him for some weeks … Nah, too many mirrors.
Comment by Mitch — 5/7/2005 @ 12:33 pm
I would love to believe that this is a big break in the War on Terror, and indeed, it is in the sense that al-Libbi is a big fish. But, if the info in his computer is so important why did our forces let it be known that we had it? Doesn’t that ruin the element of surprise?
Comment by Pastorius — 5/7/2005 @ 5:55 pm
I am certain that those who are controlling the information are the professionals at this game and are letting us know only what they want us to know. The only thing we can really do is speculate as to what it all means. My guess is that we know about 5% of what is really going on in the WOT now and that the most we’ll ever know is 10%.
Comment by joefrommass — 5/8/2005 @ 8:34 am
It is interesting to see how cascades work in fourth-generation war and fourth generation politics.
Comment by Dan — 5/8/2005 @ 7:16 pm
Just like the French. They leak a story dizzing al-Libbi after Bush goes on record claiming its a great catch. I guess the French still feel the need to make Bush look like a dope. Somethings never change……
Comment by ChangeHappens — 5/9/2005 @ 4:06 pm
Amir Ali Tayyab from Pakistan commented on the Belmontclub’s recent post on ‘Egypt’. Here is what he had to say; “The Pakistanic Government recently caught a No.3 chief of so-called Al-Qaeda. The guy that was captured is just a phony thing, only to make the current government of Pakistan look legitimate and earn praise in the war against terror. There is no terrorist activity going on in Pakistan and hence, all such things are just a “phony” games that governments are playing to decieve the masses. If this guy is caught, so what? millions others are ready to take his place, just watch the Peshawar protest next day reported in the newspapers.” It is good to know that there is no terrorism in Pakistan. General Musharraf will be glad to know that no one is trying to kill him.
Comment by David Marshall — 5/10/2005 @ 2:27 pm
notes that the Pakistani’s “promoted” this guy 7 months ago. No one seemed to object then.
Comment by Greg D — 5/10/2005 @ 7:47 pm
Tom Maguire notes that the Pakistani’s “promoted” this guy 7 months ago. No one seemed to object then.
Comment by Greg D — 5/10/2005 @ 7:49 pm
David, Thanks for quoting me here. I am honored!!! basically, what I tried to mention was that the kind of “terrorism in Pakistan” being reported in western media is not present here. It is a phony effort to keep this dictator imposed on Pakistan forever to avoid Islamic laws to be implemented in this country. Who wins? of course nobody, not even west. Because, today or tomorrow, this has to happen. Pakistan came into being only for the cause of Islam and any effort to block its implementation in this country is simply bound to fail. Amir Ali Tayyab http://qurango.com aatayyab@yahoo.com
Comment by Amir Ali Tayyab — 5/4/2006 @ 2:33 am