Zarqawi As Myth, Ghost, and Damaged Goods
So yesterday’s rumor –that Abu Musab al -Zarqawi had been wounded– moves up a notch on the reliability scale. The Iraqi government (Interior and Defense Ministries) says it believes that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been wounded, though the extent of his wounds are unknown. Fox TV just reported that Zarqawi may be in a hospital in a neighboring country. That rates as a rumor.
Zarqawi is a master-terrorist, at the tactical level. He’s cunning. He can attract fanatics and turn fanatic desire into front-page mass murder. Strategically, however, he’s in the process of engineering his own movement’s defeat. His “bloodbath tactics” have backfired in Iraq and –according to several analysts– are in the process of turning Arab public opinion against Al Qaeda. He’s brought Islamist terror to the center of the Arab world, and Islamist terror kills Arabs and Muslims without mercy. As for operational success? That’s a tougher call. He’s failed to ignite any kind of mass uprising against the Iraqi government. Instead of baiting Shias and Kurds into a civil war he’s hardened their political resolve– a Kurd is now Iraq’s president. He has played a key role in sustaining Iraq’s Sunni holdouts– in part terrorizing Sunnis who might consider a deal with the Iraqi government. That’s a “negative” kind of success (ie, he’s not inspiring, he’s enforcing).
Has Zarqawi been wounded or is he dead? Or is he being “withdrawn from the combat zone?” I raise these questions because at this point in time Zarqawi may be more valuable to Al Qaeda as a “mythic warrior” or “ghost.” It’s tough to kill a myth and darned hard to kill a ghost. Here’s the argument: Zarqawi’s damaged goods, physically and politically. From Al Qaeda’s point of view, and possibly Saddam’s henchmen, it’s time to get Z-Man out of Iraq, and then have Al-Jazeera and Newsweek turn him into Robin Hood.
From the AP (via AT&T’s website, so the link may not be permanent):
Iraq’s interior and defense ministers said Thursday that they have information that Jordanian-born terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been wounded.
“We have information in the Ministry of Interior that al-Zarqawi was wounded, but we don’t know how seriously,” Interior Minister Bayan Jabr said during a news conference. “We are not sure whether he is dead or not but we are sure that he is injured.”An Internet statement claimed Tuesday that al-Zarqawi had been wounded in recent fighting. The statement, posted on a Web site known for carrying extremist material, could not be immediately authenticated.
“Yes, it is true,” said Iraqi Defense Minister Saadoun al-Duleimi when asked if al-Zarqawi had been wounded. Asked how he knew, he said: “It is my job.”
The speculation over al-Zarqawi’s health deepened Wednesday after reports that two Arab doctors in another country were treating Iraq’s most wanted militant, who has claimed responsibility for the country’s deadliest attacks.
Here’s a trackback to my post of May 25th for background.
UPDATE: From StrategyPage’s FYEO daily email. StrategyPage thinks Al Qaeda is preparing the faithful for Zarqawi’s death:
May 25, 2005; While thousands of Iraqi police and troops round up hundreds of terrorist suspects in Baghdad, American troops have begun another sweep west of Baghdad, where al Qaeda has established bases since they were driven out of Fallujah late last year.
Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi was wounded in action about a month ago, shot in the chest, and hastily treated. The wound didn’t heal, and al Zarqawi has been taken to a foreign country for treatment. Now al Qaeda members are being told that al Zarqawi had been wounded and should be prayed for. A web site announcement appears to be an attempt to prepare al Qaeda supporters for al Zarqawi’s death. Because al Qaeda has invested so much in building up al Zarqawi’s image and stature, his demise would be a major blow to the terrorist cause. Just admitting, on a known al Qaeda web site, that al Zarqawi was wounded, is bad PR. Al Qaeda lives and dies by its public image. In the last few months, that image has been taking a major beating throughout the Arab world.
The political scenario I’m suggesting goes a step beyond the “bad PR” StrategyPage notes — Al Qaeda has to try to make lemonade out of Z-Man’s putrid, decayed lemons. We’ll stay tuned.
The same thing occurred to me. I call it “The Rebranding Al-Queada in Iraq”.
Comment by Patrick Phillips — 5/26/2005 @ 10:13 am
You make a good argument. I hope you won’t be too offended if I tell you I seriously hope you’re wrong, and Zarqawi is slowly bleeding to death from a gunshot wound to the gut, a la Tim Roth in Resovoir Dogs.
Comment by Sean P — 5/26/2005 @ 10:41 am
Zarqawi Updates Iraqi Interior and Defense ministers are saying that Zarqawi has been wounded.
Trackback by Terrorism Unveiled — 5/26/2005 @ 11:31 am
Sean P - The Timster had it too easy. I was thinking more along the lines of how Reinhard Heydrich or Tupac Shakur checked out.
Comment by Dick Eagleson — 5/26/2005 @ 11:47 am
Al-Qaeda made th emistake of sending an enforcer to do a politician’s job.
Comment by Harold C. Hutchison — 5/26/2005 @ 11:55 am
E’s not pinin’! ‘E’s passed on! This terroist is no more! He has ceased to be! ‘E’s expired and gone to meet ‘is maker! ‘E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, ‘e rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed ‘im to the perch ‘e’d be pushing up the daisies! ‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig! ‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisibile!! THIS IS AN EX-TERRORIST!!
Comment by Ken Prescott — 5/26/2005 @ 12:03 pm
at the risk of sounding really bloodthirsty here, what #2 Sean P said is too good for Zarqawi. i would gladly volunteer to tie him to a gurney, mount a mirror in front of his face (so he can see himself) and shoot him once in the lower abdomen (preferably with a .45 - they make one hell of a hole), then cut off his b***** and shove them into his mouth. then, he can watch himself die in agony. sorry. but there it is. anything else is too good for him.
Comment by boarwild — 5/26/2005 @ 12:12 pm
boarwild, you forgot to dip him in rancid bacon grease.
Comment by Ken Prescott — 5/26/2005 @ 12:15 pm
I think the most important questions we need to be musing about is, “Who shot ‘em?” and “How long after a confirmed kill will the shooter take to claim his $25M?”
Comment by Sailfish — 5/26/2005 @ 12:28 pm
Whoever shot him should get, in addition to 25 megabucks, a “Global Humanitarian of the Year” award…
Comment by Ken Prescott — 5/26/2005 @ 12:30 pm
So it is this is easy to remove a man with a chest wound from Iraq? How is easy is it to get healthy people in? How easy is it to “withdraw” the wounded, then send them back in? It looks as long as anyone, anywhere wants to get into Iraq to blow themselves up, they’ll be able to. That’s bad?
Comment by Lexington Green — 5/26/2005 @ 1:02 pm
But Iraqi and American forces had better gear up for it, if Z is either dead or dying. I visualize a horrid version of “win one for the Gipper.”
Comment by Jamie — 5/26/2005 @ 1:11 pm
Sailfish is on to something. Perhaps AQ had him clipped. Zarqawi’s plan is failing, and he won’t give it up. Look to the Soviet style, the .38 retirement plan. That’s the model
Comment by cris — 5/26/2005 @ 1:35 pm
Paul is dead too! May be just a great way to take the heat off.
Comment by Jon Burrows — 5/26/2005 @ 2:37 pm
May all his 72 virgins smell like rotten fish, and be too ugly to look at!
Comment by Opine6 — 5/26/2005 @ 3:51 pm
Could it be a distinct possibility that releasing the message that “Zarqawi is hurt” is an established signal to terrorists in the region to begin a new or particular phase of attacks? Remember, Al Qaeda releases information to benefit Al Qaeda, not the US.
Comment by joseph — 5/26/2005 @ 4:12 pm
Is it just me, or is AQ beginning to look like the “Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight”? OBL brings down the Towers, and suddenly the Taliban is swept away and he’s on the run from Pakistani Muslims, of all people. Zarqawi launches suicide bombs in Iraq, and suddenly Sunni’s are dropping dimes on his people, Baghdad is surrounded by 40,000 pissed-off Iraqi’s, and he’s suddenly in a world of (real) hurt. Egypt is telling the Muslim Brotherhood to take a flying f**k. Elections are coming. Kuwaiti women just got the right to vote and participate in the political process. Syrian Baathist’s are making noises that they’re really our friends, they’ve caught a lot of jihadis, and “Please don’t bomb us! We just got tossed our of Lebanon, after all!” Saudi Arabia is killing Wahhabi jihadis. And America, the country that was supposed to cut and run at the first sight of casualties, is kicking ass and taking names. Big time. Yeah, some Grand Plan you had there, Osama. F*****g screwup!!!
Comment by Tinker — 5/26/2005 @ 6:59 pm
I can’t believe that no one has mentioned this… Zarqawi is real brave beheading blindfolded hostages, with their hands tied behind their backs. First known encounter with Marines who could shoot back, he reportedly bails from a moving truck and runs with his tail tucked between his legs. Second encounter with Marines, he dies. Good riddance
Comment by RebelPOW — 5/26/2005 @ 8:15 pm
Here’s wishing you die slowly of a gut shot and burn in hell for eternity Well, as we all know, Zarqawi is dying somewhere. [See Austin Bay: Zarqawi As Myth, Ghost, and Damaged Goods]. And he’s being replaced: Rantburg: Web Site Announces Al-Zarqawi Replacement. Chrenkoff notes thus: Supporters of the al Qaeda leader in Ira…
Trackback by The Adventures of Chester — 5/26/2005 @ 10:05 pm
Shot in the chest and he lives another day? Sounds like the NATO 5.56. Just imagine if the Marines used something other than a poodle-shooter to hunt big game.
Comment by red river — 5/26/2005 @ 10:22 pm
To echo a frequent conspiracy theory from last September; I’m sure Zarqawi will be “captured” in October of 2008.
Comment by pinkmonkeybird — 5/26/2005 @ 10:32 pm
I’m not trying to be cynical, and I hope this guy has been killed or mortally wounded. But, here is my question. Will it have any impact on the war at all? Is the core of the resistance the Sunnis? And is what Zarqawi did all that hard to do? As sick as this is, might we not even be worse off with more rational leadership in the resistance that does not murder hostages on TV? Didn’t that alienate more Arabs than anything else? And does his death discourage recruitment of terrorists or have the opposite effect? I am not being snarky. I really don’t know and I don’t know if anybody knows. I would like to see some evidence that the resistance is actually diminishing in terms of its capabilities, and I’m not sure it is. Does eliminating Zarquawi move the ball for us, or is it just a “nice to have” since he is such a vile person?
Comment by Lexington Green — 5/26/2005 @ 10:35 pm
I hear that there is no sex in heaven. He better hope he finds 72 virgins rather than 72 Virginians in heaven.
Comment by Neo — 5/26/2005 @ 11:44 pm
The only thing that would be better than Z dying a slow, agonizing death would be if he slipped into a persistent vegetative state and stayed there for. oh ten or twenty years. There is nothing that screws up an organization like having a human veggie running the show.
Comment by Paul Danish — 5/26/2005 @ 11:55 pm
The Zarqawi Succession ABU MUSAB AL-ZARQAWI may (or may not) have been seriously injured during a recent U.S. operation in western Iraq. An article in Friday’s Newsday speculates on his potential successors. The two top contenders to succeed the Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi a…
Trackback by The Indepundit — 5/27/2005 @ 3:59 pm
Zarqawi as a Myth, Ghost, and Damaged Goods Colonel Austin Bay has an interesting article posted titled, “Zarqawi As Myth, Ghost, and Damaged Goods.” It’s not often I quote directly from other blogs, but he makes two good points here, primarily that Zarqawi’s strategy in Iraq has not succeed…
Trackback by Security Watchtower — 5/28/2005 @ 2:18 am
Is He Dead Yet? Amman, 27 May - (Aki) - The family of Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi may already be preparing his obituary. The news was published this morning by the Saudi daily “Al-Watan,” which cited sources close to the family of the Al-Qaeda leader in…
Trackback by Mystery Achievement — 5/28/2005 @ 6:24 am
ZARQAWI DEAD? I dunno, but that’s the rumor: Baghdad, 2 June (AKI) - The Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi - al-Qaeda’s leader in Iraq - died on Friday and his body is in Fallujah’s cemetary, an Iraqi Sunni sheikh, Ammar Abdel Rahim…
Trackback by JunkYardBlog — 6/2/2005 @ 1:14 pm