UPDATED: Old Iron Curtain and New Europe: Bush in Slovakia/The Movement from South to North
Bush gets a warm welcome in Slovakia — behind the old Iron Curtain and in “New Europe” the “idea of the West” isn’t dead, it’s vibrant.
Review this week’s debate –loosely centered on Mark Steyn’s proposition that the idea of the West is dead– via this link. [Ed: But is that what he meant? See below for the discussion.] Scroll through the comments on the original post for background. My take, no matter the exegesis of Steyn’s last line: The West isn’t dead, it’s expanding. NATO remains a prime tool for “confidence building.” I am also confident that the people of France can ultimately handle democracy, just like the Iraqis. Someday they will be liberated from Chirac and his ilk. (Paint Paris Purple!) As “Old Europe” confronts its host of problems, new, genuinely progressive leaders will replace the current crop of declinists and defeatists whose anti-American cant is a complete cop-out. Europeans will leave the Flower Generation and join the New Greatest Generation.
The Daily Telegraph quote President Bush in today’s edition:
“In recent times we have witnessed landmark events in the history of liberty - a Rose Revolution in Georgia, an Orange Revolution in Ukraine and now a Purple Revolution in Iraq,” he said, in a reference to the Iraqis who dipped their index fingers into purple ink to show they had voted.
“For the Iraqi people this is their 1989 and they will always remember who stood with them in their quest for freedom,” he said. Even for Slovaks who tend to love Mr Bush for his straight-talking and America’s history of opposing communism, that seemed a bit of a stretch.
UPDATE: Note to Comment 2: I appreciate your comment. Many of us read Mark’s “old girl-friend” riff as a kiss-off., and I think you can see that from the comments my original post drew. You can read a comment Instapundit ran (by a Norwegian reader) to that effect. Mark Steyn’s column had a real fin de siecle feel to it– which is a stylistic coup of sorts. ” It screamed “Hey folks, the dream is over.” In my view Europe is ripe for renewal, and renewal is a more appropriate word than revolution. It will move from remnant “red” (socialist red) to “purple.” How soon? Don’t know. Will it look like the US? I think not and I hope not. But the Euro-elites dissed Reagan and the Wall fell. They’ve dissed Bush and obstructed Iraq –yet changing the terror-exporting game in the Middle East is essential to Europe’s own survival. I’d be ineterestedin Mark Steyn’s comments on all of this.
UPDATE 2: Comment 3: Here’s the context:
America and Europe both face security threats. But the difference is America’s are external, and require hard choices in tough neighbourhoods around the world, while the EU’s are internal and, as they see it, unlikely to be lessened by the sight of European soldiers joining the Great Satan in liberating, say, Syria. That’s not exactly going to help keep the lid on the noisier Continental mosques.
So what would you do in Bush’s shoes? Slap ‘em around a bit? What for? Where would it get you? Or would you do exactly what he’s doing? Climb into the old soup-and-fish, make small talk with Mme Chirac and raise a glass of champagne to the enduring friendship of our peoples: what else is left? This week we’re toasting the end of an idea: the death of “the West”.
See my first objection (original post): “…wrong conclusion, unless you?re like the French and you think ?Europe? is another word for ?France.? (My column outlines why I say this. I wrote it Tuesday morning, before I read Steyn’s piece.) Steyn suggests “enduring friendship” is “small talk.” “America and Europe” (their defense problems) seem to be the framing subjects here, not American and European leadership. As for parsing the last sentence (the death of the west or the death of the idea of the death of the west) look to the previous sentence “what else is left?” Suggests the first to many readers. Again, I’d like to hear from Mark Steyn. I also disagree with his statement that “knocking off Syria” (ie, taking action to change the fundamental political problems in the Middle East) won’t have positive effects on Europe’s Muslim immigration and integration issue. Okay, maybe not on the noisiest mosques– but that’s a classy hyperbolic. Which is what his last sentence is as well.
UPDATE 3: Mark Steyn responds (thanks Mark–best to you, too, my friend):
Well, since you asked, Austin?
First, it?s true that the Central and Eastern European nations are markedly more America-friendly than the western ones. However, their long-term prognosis is not significantly different: they face the same deathbed demographics - right now, the only European country breeding at replacement rate is Muslim Albania.
Declining population isn?t necessarily a problem - my own New Hampshire town, for example, survived a 130-year population decline from 1820 to 1950, caused by the opening up of the west, the collapse of the sheep industry and the big mill towns down south. But New Hampshire?s entire social structure wasn?t founded on a welfarist model dependent on continuous population growth to sustain state benefits. For the states of Eastern Europe, one of the consequences of joining the EU, adopting the Euro and ratifying the European Constitution is that they?re also assuming collective responsibility for the cost of the unsustainable welfare burdens of Greece, France, etc.
There are two ways you could deal with this - either reform of the welfare states or massive immigration higher than America at its pre-World War One immigration peak. No European politicians have the courage to address the former (openly), so they?ve signed on to the latter (silently). In the end, the idea of using the Third World as your surrogate mother isn?t a long-term solution either: in 2020, a skilled educated Indian, Chilean, Chinaman, Singaporean will be able to write his own emigration ticket anywhere on the planet. Is it likely he?ll want to choose a part of the world where the basic tax rate will be 60%?
That means Europe will be almost wholly dependent on the Muslim world for immigration - and one of the features of super-tolerant anything-goes post-Christian Europe is that it radicalises hitherto moderate Muslims. Look at the number of Islamist terrorists who are creatures of the Euro-Canadian welfare systems - Richard Reid the shoe bomber, Zac Moussaoui, Ahmed Ressam, even Mohammed Atta?s political character was formed in large part by his time in Germany. A senior Dutch cabinet minister told me in 2003 that what really scared him was that young Dutch Muslims were more Islamist and less assimilated than the grandparents who?d arrived in the early Seventies.
There are two likely longterm outcomes of all this:
a) Europe will simply become Muslim, as is already happening in secondary Scandinavian and Benelux cities;
b) New opportunist political movements will take advantage of the situation and of the silence of the centre-left EU political establishment, as is already happening in France, Belgium, Holland, Austria, Germany, Denmark. Europeans will see their declining economic fortunes, increasing crime, unaffordable welfare systems, etc, within the context of their demographic transformation, and some will react in the traditional European way - ie, violence, massive destabilisation, etc. Will this work in the long run? I doubt it. Like the ?Take Back Vermont? campaign of five years ago, once you?re talking about taking it back you?ve already lost it.
There may be smart politicians in individual nations - Slovakia, Lithuania - who understand this. But, given that anyone who has the right to live in one EU country has the right to live in all - ie, a Swede is entitled to live in Greece and vice-versa - it?s unlikely that they?ll avoid the destabilising effects of their neighbours.
More to the point, we?re already seeing the start of a continent-wide equivalent of the ?white flight? from US cities in the Seventies: the Netherlands is now a net exporter of its own people.
So: you tell me how we get to the happy ending.
Progressive secular welfarism is a great life - but only for a generation or two. After that, it?s a death cult.
All best,
Mark
UPDATE:
Monday– time to expand on Sunday’s quick reply:
How do we get there? I don’t believe in happy endings, just a respite before the next struggle.
But, in the pursuit of the happy ending–first off I’ll argue that we’re getting there on the battlefield. We’re turning combat victories into political victories in Afghanistan and the Middle East. I see very significant Polish and British participation in this effort (FWIW, I spent the better part of a month working for a British major-general– the Brits are a professional’s professional combat force). Italian participation shouldn’t be underestimated.
I don’t underestimate the French and German peoples’ capacities for change, either, especially when challenged at home. Yes, I know about Dutch emigration. I also read about a building Dutch anti-Muslim backlash– there are two trains running, neither look good. That’s why I think what will happen in Holland is something in between, but concentrating on a “re-birth of western values,” controlling immigration, and focusing on integration for the immigrants it allows. (In German Der Spiegel says Joschka Fischer has finally lost his teflon because of the visa scandal– a step to controlling immigration in Germany–and getting rid of the Old Reds of ‘68–see one of the early comments in this thread.)
Giving up on people is so passe’ –okay, give up on the ex-girlfriend but don’t write off the Dutch or the French. I think Pim Fortuyn was the forefront of a reassertion of western values in Holland. Yup, a gay ex-professor. But he understood what John Leo is getting at when he invokes Walter Lippmann. (Here’s the John Leo essay Glenn posted (from US News). It describes the Left’s values quandry in America.)
Last summer ?a hot night in Baghdad? I sat in on a routine ops and plans briefing. As the meeting broke up a very senior general sitting at the table started talking about ?the real strategic challenge of our time. The (global) south is moving north.? No, that?s not a new thought, but ?though it?s late and we?re tired? it?s an interesting thought. We got into a completely non-classified discussion about causes, perceptions and consequences of this great migration. No one at that table saw this demographic movement as an invasion, but a fact of life spurred by men and women seeking better economic opportunities. Declining native European populations got a mention ?as in the demand for entry level labor. Another word entered the conversation: “liberty.” Put yourself in the other man?s shoes, one officer said. You?re from El Salvador and you?re tired of being caught in the crossfire between artistocrats of the left and right. You?re a Dinka and you?re tired of being in the crossfire. You?re an Berber in Algeria and you?re tired of being in the crossfire. So you head north? the US in the Salvadoran case, in all probability Europe is the Dinka and Berber destination You cannot help but bring your own culture and experience with you. Once you arrive there is the inevitable clash of ?new arrival? versus the homeboys.
Now the conversation turned to “What do we do?” especially in the case of immigrants who resist integration. The best idea: change the conditions that spark the migration– everything else is mitigation, though domestic policies that spur integration and adaptation are certainly part of the answer. Changing conditions that spark migration means extending economic opportunities and “the liberty engine” that drives creative economic success into the hellholes our Salvadoran and Dinka and Berber are departing. I’m paraphrasing, but one of the officers in the discussion said to the effect: “These people need a break back home.”
As someone who has worked developmental aid issues in Central America and East Africa, I’m extremely sympathetic with this view.
But how do you break the corrupt, autocratic grip that oppresses so many of these endemically poor societies? What is the mechanism of this great change that will shape the great migration? The senior general said to me, laconically: “It could be this war we’re in.”
I recall a discussion I had with a Syrian Arab. We were in a language school together in Germany in the early 1980s. The first two months we were together he came on hard with the Arab anger and Mulism militant act. He hated Americans and he hated “Jews” (Israelis). He bullied the other Americans at the school with this moral castigation hustle, but I flat told him to stuff it. If he hated Americans, well, I’m a Texan, get over it. That perfect wisecrack puzzled him for 24 hours and once he figured out I was playing Texas cowboy in response to his angry Arab, it amused him. This fellow was also smart and witty and both of us enjoyed making puns in German (we were both in an intermediate class, didn’t speak it well, but what German we did speak we both played with). He also liked jazz and hung around when I played piano (blues and bop, mostly). I got the facts by osmosis: he had had family jailed by Assad, but in Syria who hadn’t? His family lived in fear. Well, the brilliant Syrian and I are sitting in a German cafe one afternoon–quaint side street, great light– and he finally breaks. “How do you do it?” he asked me, meaning “How does America do it? How does America succeed in so many ways?” I told him his real question was why Syria, or for that matter, a majority of Third World countries, were in such terrible and terrifying conditions. “Yes,” that’s the deep subject. “First you have to off your autocrats,” I told him. “But we can’t do this,” he said–and his face was a work of pain. “Then, until you do, you will continue to eat dust,” I replied. “To eat dirt.”
Michael Novak didn’t make it up. There is a universal hunger for liberty. It exists in Syria, and my brilliant, frightened, pseudo-militant friend attests to that. He was a sincere Muslim– but I am certain his “Sunni militancy” act was a response to the Allawite dictatorship in Syria. It was an outlet.
Is changing the conditions that spark migration Mark’s happy ending? No. It’s a long, bitter struggle. But changing those conditions changes the calculus that leads to Mark’s Number One: “Europe will simply become Muslim.”
For a long time now I’ve tracked a parallel trend — those on the one side who seek defeatism (perhaps as validation of long-held suspicions of life, formed early) — and those on the other who will never lose sight of what I think of as the sun shining for all to see. Naturally, I’m one of the latter. The winds of change are blowing. We stand at the threshold of choice. It’s not too late to take a stand for what is right. All of this poetic gilding is but to say: It’s okay to have balls … *S*
Comment by Mary Nusbaum — 2/26/2005 @ 8:07 pm
Re-reading Mark Steyn’s article (http://tinyurl.com/45v65), I came to the same conclusion as the anonymous emailer to Instapundit. His last line doesn’t refer to the death of the West - it refers to the death of the idea of the death of the West. The article is about how Bush & Co. can afford to be magnanimous to European leaders because there’s no need to discuss substantive issues anymore. Freedom is clearly on the march, and Bush can afford to sip champagne with Chirac and chat about nothing important, secretly satisfied that history is proving him right. “The death of the West” so longed for by Chirac and Schroder has been disproven.
Comment by George Adams — 2/26/2005 @ 9:41 pm
Mark WAS saying, “The West, as a concept, is dead IN THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF VARIOUS EU LEADERS, therefore change the tone, as there’s no connection on the content. I didn’t read his column as total, universal European, but as explaining WHY Bush could change tone WHEN THERE’S NO HOPE of shared values being there to change into closer alignment.
Comment by Carridine — 2/27/2005 @ 6:44 am
Europe is ripe for renewal You underestimate how thoroughly the Geneeration of ‘68 has permeated the Western European establishment. They are now too old and set in their ways to change their opinion of their American enemy. Until they pass from the scene it is hard to imagine significant change.
Comment by Mrs. Davis — 2/27/2005 @ 8:01 am
I wrote about this back in Spetember: http://www.mandelinople.com/2004/09/europe-doesnt-matter-anymore.html
Sorry Mr. Bay, I think Mr. Steyn is right on this one. The biggest difference between Europe and us: we always had a strong patriotic and individualistic majority. They were caught a little flat-footed by the lefties in the 60’s, but we recovered and got two cowboys, the Gipper and W. For Germany and France, they had the same patriotic groups once too, but got a bohemian artist who got who went east and a crappy general who went to vietnam and algeria.
Comment by Rob Mandel — 2/27/2005 @ 9:15 am
“Europe’s” job now is to expand into the Slavic/Balkan/Turkish worlds and slowly stabilize them and let them prosper. A stable, democratic Turkey safely ensconced in the West should be the single most important prerequisite for Bush’s Middle East revolution. A stable, democratic Ukraine would protect Europe from any Russian danger. The moderate Muslim govt of Turkey should be mobilized to support France’s attempt to establish an “official Islam.” And etc. etc. This is hard work, but must be done. That’s what Bush should demand of Europe– take care of greater Europe, we’ll handle the rest of the world.
Comment by barry youngerman — 2/27/2005 @ 10:13 am
While it’s possible that Europe will awaken before it’s too late, the most important country, Germany, shows no sign of doing so. Angela Merkel(CDU leader) cannot seem to show the spine of a Margaret Thatcher, and cannot even control her own party, despite the desperately bad peformance of the Schroeder/Fischer government. If the so-called conservatives in Germany can’t or won’t take advantage of the political gifts of scandal(visa affair) and incompetence(highest unemployment since the early days of Hitler) then there is truly no hope for Germany…and they are the largest, wealthiest, and despite Gallic pretension to the contrary, most influential country in Europe…old or new. Don’t underestimate the nihilism of old Europe…especially among the guilt-ridden post-war generation. They WANT to fail as a civilization…they feel they deserve it. And they would delight in taking us with them. The blogging phenomenon is, as yet, still under the radar in Germany, and there is no equivalent of Fox News. Until the information flow changes flavor, the politics won’t either.
Comment by Rob Crowe — 2/27/2005 @ 10:48 am
A strong Europe, which is what Bush said he wanted, will probably require the collapse of the EU. The CIA gives them about 15 more years. It may come sooner. Ireland could pull out of the Euro followed by Italy and Portugal. In fact Italy could pull out of the whole EU, Berlusconi is probably getting sick of being used as a whipping boy by ‘honest’ politicos like Chirac. The Eastern Europeans will pull out the minuite the realize that the EU is heading towards some sort of Cold War against America. The big question - What will blow up first, the EU or the Euro-Muslims?
Comment by Taylor — 2/27/2005 @ 11:49 am
Steyn is speaking of the ruling class in Europe. Supporting regime change in Syria may be in the long term interest of the people, but keeping a lid on the noisier mosques is in the interest of the EU Apparatchiks. Besides, since the US is economically more successful, it is in the EUchiks interest to pose as morally superior and the US as morally bankrupt. US success in spreading democracy will hardly help them in that effort. Next election, when they whip up anti-US hysteria to distract from unemployment, it is best the people don’t respond, “Maybe the US was right after all.”
Comment by Howard D. Greene — 2/27/2005 @ 11:53 am
There’s a perhaps unanticipated danger for the EU in the spread of democracy in the Middle East. When Iraq, for instance, becomes a prosperous democracy, why would millions of Iraqis continue to emigrate to cold, dank Northern Europe? In fact, some of the million or so Iraqis in Europe now will most likely go home. Many Afghans already have. A EU that needs immigration to survive demographically may see its source of young labor dry up. No wonder the Old Europeans are against freedom in the Middle East! Europe by 2050 may well become a dusty museum populated by a few oldsters in funny costumes.
Comment by Robert Speirs — 2/27/2005 @ 11:58 am
I think that Mark’s pessimistic view about the political culture of Europe is right. Where are the “genuinely progressive” leaders of France today? These movements don’t spring up from nowhere. They require habits of thought in at least some of the elites and a corresponding base in the electorate. Reagan drew on the legacy of Goldwater and distinctly American conservatism. Where would this be found in Europe? The main political movements are socialist (the dog is dead but the tail still wags), swag-happy statist euro-”conservatives” that have at best a nodding relationship to American conservatives, Greens, and assorted anti-American, anti-globalization factions. There isn’t a faction of the left elite that can come up with a plausible response to the challege becaue they have, for the most part, lost all faith in their culture and are simply going through the motions. There may be a reaction to the problem, but that reaction is more likely to take the form of a Le Pen-style movement, which isn’t a very good outcome, and is unlikely to work anyway.
Comment by Ernst Blofeld — 2/27/2005 @ 12:00 pm
Bros. Judd posted an article from Christianity Today - they’re seeing signs of Christian revival in France. And while it might be little, they are seeing Mohammed muslims on Friday who show up to church on Sunday as Jack or John. They’re getting the newly arrived poor and helping them out. Let’s hope it’s not too little, too late.
Comment by Sandy P — 2/27/2005 @ 12:01 pm
I’m not totally convinced that Mark is right, but, alas, he makes some strong points — and European “penis envy” vis-a-vis Americans may be the X-factor. It’s been my experience in recent years (personal and otherwise) that Europeans can’t stand to admit the Americans are right. They’d almost rather implode. The recent Der Speigel articles were a notable exception. There are others, of course. But spend an hour in, say, the Groucho Club in London and you hear nothing but unremitting jealousy. We know where that gets you. And in this case it’s a little more significant than someone’s career going down the drain.
Comment by Roger L . Simon — 2/27/2005 @ 12:04 pm
You people are all crazy. There is nothing wrong with ‘bread and circuses’, and importing barbarians to do the dirty work.
Comment by Arminius — 2/27/2005 @ 12:28 pm
Austin, We have domestic terrorists. Or people who’d like to be terrorists, but the McVeigh incident taught them one thing, you don’t piss off Uncle Sam. Say whatever you like about the Feds, you just don’t get them pissed. Foreign terrorists are learning this. Slowly, but they are learning. If you haven’t read Larry Niven’s “Known Space” stories I recommend you do so. Especially the Man-Kzin War tales. Spoiler: Seems the Man-Kzin Wars were engineered by the Puppeteers as a way to ‘domesticate’ the Kzin by eliminating the agressive males and leaving the more ‘peaceful’ to breed. Think of it as evolution in action. And think of how it might apply in our current situation.
Comment by Alan Kellogg — 2/27/2005 @ 12:53 pm
As a Canadian, I can attest to the power of anti-Americanism as a political tool. However, most Canadian’s views on the US is limited to political gamesmanship. In the end, Canadians know full well that America is a force for good. It doesn’t make the practice any less abhorent though. And yes, jealousy plays a big role in all of this. Kudos to Mark for having the balls to come here and make his case. Like Roger, I’m not really sure yet where Europe is headed, but both Mark and “General” make good points. Much of it will depend on the European press, I guess. Sadly, said press has shown a disgusting penchant for hyperbole and vitriolic excess.
Comment by MisterPundit — 2/27/2005 @ 12:58 pm
I never disagree with Mark Steyn. I’ve spent a fortune mailing his columns to my brothers and friends. Funny how I never see him. On TV on elsewhere. Just his picture. The one where he looks like he’s crouching down, trying to keep low. Inconspicuous. Wearing a beard now that I think about it. As if he was someone else. Wearing a beard. Someone smart. Like Karl Rove. Which is impossible of course.
Comment by Ron Wright — 2/27/2005 @ 1:18 pm
Sorry to disagree misterpundit but Canadian anti-Americanism seems to be of the same virulent strain as anywhere else. From what I can tell the unspoken mandate of virtually every broadsheet in Canada is the denigration of America and Americans. Stories about American eating habits, crime statistics, excessive TV viewing, illiteracy rates and lack of a national health care plan are daily fare. That’s just the news section. If you really want to know about Canadian disdain and contempt for Americans you have to go to the op-ed pages where editorials and letters vilify America daily. Opinion pieces are gleaned from U.S. papers such as the NYT and LAT seemingly on the basis that they must paint a less-than-flattering picture of American life and people. I haven’t heard a CBC radio or TV program in years that I considered even remotely sympathetic to Americans (unless they’ve changed in the four or five years since I quit watching). Add to all this the conversations I pick up on constantly where Americans are branded stupid, backwards, ignorant, racist and brainwashed and I can’t help but think that Canadians have joined the international hate campaign against their neighbour. If Canadians “know full well that America is a force for good” I’m not hearing it. Do you think I should start listening to the CBC again?
Comment by Dwight — 2/27/2005 @ 1:45 pm
Mark Steyn is oh so right unfortunately… He’s right about the total lack of will to reform the welfare (let’s say the word: socialist) policies. For instance, there will be a vote (in april) about whether or not France will ratify the EU constitution. What do you think the debate is about ? Those who are against the Constitution say it will “liberalize” France, therefore forcing “us” to give up the joys of “public services” (read: monopolistic, oversized, unefficient enterprises run by the governement) and welfare. Those who are for the EU Constitution say it will enable “us” to resist globalization (the great evil of our times, led by the US), and help build the giant state that will force the US into submission to “multilateralism” (read: UN world governement, Kyoto and other crap). Talk about choice… Why is that ? Because there are no conservatives in France, there are no libertarians, only mindless socialists, willing to sell weapon systems to China if they can get a bribe, to Sudan if there’s oil, to Iraq if there’s both oil and bribes… Why aren’t there any worthy politician in France ? Well, because there would be almost noone to vote for them. 90% of French agreed about Iraq. More than you could find in Syria, Iran or Saudi Arabia (well over there they know what it’s like to live in a dictatorship, islamic or baathist, so at least some understand the value of freedom). Same goes for Germany and other european countries. It’s gonna suck very bad in a few year here. Hope the US will gladly allow some of us to escape…
Comment by lmae — 2/27/2005 @ 1:54 pm
Col. Bay, How, exactly, is Europe going to regenerate and renew ties with the US? Germany may have the best ‘flying hospitals’ of any military, but they also have 25 year old trucks which don’t run because the Bundeswehr can no longer buy parts for them. On the economic front, fans of the EU point out how hourly productivity rates are higher in some EU countries than in the US. But the reason that hourly rates are higher is because Europe’s unproductive workers are on the dole, or welfare, and have been for years! Cutting back on welfare payments will require getting these workers back in the workforce, but getting them back in the workforce will lower overall productivity, and thereby decrease wages. On top of falling living standards, the EU will up military spending? I think not. The warmth of feeling for the US may be stronger in the East than in the West, but the West holds the purse strings. Additionally, the depopulation set to occur in the East will further limit any warming between the EU and the US - one of the Baltic states (Latvia or Estonia, IIRC) will have lost 45% of its population by 2050. As a European myself, I don’t like hearing the hard truths that Mr. Steyn points to, but he is correct nonetheless.
Comment by Jean — 2/27/2005 @ 1:57 pm
Sorry, but the thought of showing up on a thread with both Mark Steyn and Roger Simon was irresistible. As usual, they capture my thoughts and render all additional commentary (at least by me) useless and redundant. So hear, hear, I guess.
Comment by Marc L. Fleischauer — 2/27/2005 @ 1:59 pm
Here’s another way of thinking about this (seemingly for fun and games, but not really), if forced to bet on one the following as most likely to have a favorable outcome: 1) the future of Europe; 2) the future of Canada; 3) the future of the “western alliance;” and 4) the future of the U.S., which number would you play, and why? I think the answer is pretty obvious for most of us, eh?
Comment by Tim — 2/27/2005 @ 2:06 pm
We are in a time for Heros, Thank God that we have some, Europe has got Tony and Havel, good ones, but still so few. The political tide will swing over there, but for now we are stuck with socialists, the French and jealous old europe. The story there and in Canada seems to be littered with the trash of orphan Marxists and other losers left over from the Cold War. These people are bitter and with their Marxist training, manipulative. A fresh information wind is blowing. They are being exposed for the destructive force that they are. Things go well even though they are hard.
Comment by rob — 2/27/2005 @ 2:07 pm
Call me crazy (you WON’T be the first), but I don’t think Mr. Steyn was nearly pessimistic enough about “old” Europe’s prospects. For a religion of peace, Islam has a remarkably difficult time co-existing with other religions and contradictory beliefs, and except for the last 60 years or so, European nations have had a remarkably difficult time co-existing peacefully with each other. The combination of unassimilated Muslim immigrants, religious friction, declining native-born populations and inter-generational conflict resulting from unsustainable pension promises to the aged is a flammable mixture likely to produce civil war in one or more nations sometime in the next 20 years or so.
Comment by Anarchus — 2/27/2005 @ 2:12 pm
I am sure that Europe, and France in particular, would respond quite quickly to just a few serious minded reforms. Sadly, it’ll never happen given the political culture over here. (Sad because I am a Francophile and would genuinely like them to succeed.) I think it was Edmund Burke who said that “the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” My guess is that the Europeans will go on doing nothing until evil triumphs, either in the form of serious civil conflict, some ghastly terrorist attack, or the coming to power of a neo-fascist government in a major European country (probably all three). And don’t talk to me about Berlusconi, I’m talking about a Le Pen at a minimum, but more likely something far worse. The two important questions to answer are: 1) when Europe finally wakes up, will it already be too late?, and 2) will the Americans ride to their rescue a third time or just let them stew?
Comment by John D'oh! — 2/27/2005 @ 2:13 pm
President Bush’s effort to stabilize the Mid-East is probably the only hope for Europe to avoid the destructive outcomes Mark Steyn writes about. As Robert Speirs says above, if Egypt, Syria, Iraq, etc. are relatively stable places building democratic futures, no large number of people would emmigrate to Europe. Further, the flypaper strategy is pulling at least some of the more strategic-minded islamists into Iraq (and soon into Syria) where they will be killed, captured, or simply beaten into submission. If that works out, it would at least stop adding more powder to the EU keg, and might drain off some of the more volitile elements. The result would hopefully be something Europe could survive and eventually recover from, like Nazism, Bolshevism, and inbred royalty. That’s the best they can hope for, but at least there is some small amount of hope.
Comment by (the other) John Hawkins — 2/27/2005 @ 2:13 pm
P.S. to 27: Canada is likely to fare a lot better that Europe in the long run because 1) geographic proximity eventually forces Canada to go along at least half-way with most U.S. economic reforms, and 2) anti-Americanism is more of a hobby for Canadians, whereas for Europeans it is a career.
Comment by John D'oh! — 2/27/2005 @ 2:26 pm
One of the bellwether countries to watch as the EU votes on Turkish membership is Greece. As a first generation American whose immediate family emigrated here during the height of the Civil War, I grew up hearing stories of Turkish (and English) perfidy. The Greeks, for all the patina of socialism, have a historic and visceral hatred of Turkey as a Muslim nation that enslaved Greece for nearly four hundred years. Greece, and the Balkans in general, as always, will be the nations to watch. Their memories are longer, more bitter, and more flammable. Blood will run in the streets before Bulgaria or Greece become Islamic. The US will become Islamic before either of those two do. Neither is going to happen. As for Old Europe…their powers of appeasement are suicidal. They would rather die being who they are than live being who we are. It is their religion and short of a popular uprising as in the Ukraine or Lebanon, they’re not going to change.
Comment by mk — 2/27/2005 @ 2:38 pm
One of the great ironies of the Bush visit is that by advancing freedom in the islamic world, George Bush is ultimately saving Europe from it’s future. Today’s islamic immigrant is imbued with islamist facism; tommorrow’s will bring the democratic values now taking seed in Iraq, Lebanon, and ulimately Iran, Syria, and Egypt.
Comment by john — 2/27/2005 @ 2:58 pm
Mark Steyn for president. My only hope is that the Poles, Czechs, Lithuanians, etc. see the iceberg coming soon and get in the lifeboats.
Comment by Bruce — 2/27/2005 @ 3:01 pm
“Collapse” of Old Europe is a bit overwrought. Europe is going to change and the dominoes have been set-up as well described by Mr. Steyn. The change will not be a “collapse” that recapitulates the Dark Ages. Le Pen or his ilk will not likely replicate the Reich simply because that memory is still too fresh in the collective consciousness. However, the collapse of Lebanon in the 1970s sounds just about right. Cheers. Kurt V. Miller, MD Fresno, CA
Comment by Kurt V. Miller, MD — 2/27/2005 @ 3:02 pm
Old Europe is doomed. The post feudal socialist compromise will break down when the non-working, non-assimilated, un-employed Islamic population tries to complete the process of social disintegration (already well begun in the Islamic areas of major French cities). When my Grandfather, a Bavarian Jew, fled Nazi Germany in February 1939 he took with him his Iron Cross 1st class from the Battle of the Somme and his Regimental Beer mug. His brothers died in the trenches for Germany. German anti-semitism makes their heroism a non event. More Jews were shipped to the camps from unoccupied France than from any other country not occupied by the Nazis. Bulgaria deported no Jews to the death camps. Spain deported no Jews to the death camps. In some basic ways the evil of Europe of 1938 remains unchanged. French and German elites will not pass without a fight. Anyone who disbelieves this should remember the response to the Algerian rebellion in France and the Bader-Meinhof gang in Germany. These elites will be ruthless. But because their success will be an artifact of their will to power rather than any deep moral beliefs, their temporary victory over the jihadis will in fact be the beginning of their end. At the University I work at I meet many European visiting faculty. The un-employment rate among those with postgraduate degrees in Europe may be double (20%?) the current general rate (10-12%). Jobs pass by connections, family, patronage, and school. You cannot be Oprah or Condi in Europe. The visiting faculty we employ do not want to leave the USA as they profess disdain for it. It takes one day ( & $50) to start a corporation in my state. How long does it take in Germany or France and at what cost? If the USA wanted to destroy the old Europe the only thing necessary would be to invite every scientifically or technically competent person the opportunity to be an American citizen. Watch all the creative minds leave old Europe like the air leaves a balloon with a hole in it.
Comment by David A. Fauman — 2/27/2005 @ 3:06 pm
Reluctant though I am to side with the pessimists, this story from the Sunday NY Times seems to be exactly on point:
Sorryfor the lobng excerpt - I could not generate a permalink.
Comment by Tom Maguire — 2/27/2005 @ 4:05 pm
My trackback ping seems not to have gotten through (or perhaps has just been delayed; apologies for any multiples), but my own take on Bay vs. Steyn is at http://www.beldar.org/beldarblog/2005/02/beldar_on_bay_v.html … Put me in the Bay column.
Comment by Beldar — 2/27/2005 @ 4:45 pm
One would hope that ‘old Europe’ would begin to see the potential tipping point in the nexus of the welfare state, Arab immigration, radicalization of Muslim immigrants, and the inability of tax revenues to keep up with the demands of a 21st century Euro-welfare state. Alas, we have not reached that point. In France just this week, the major trade unions plan to strike to protest the (very modest) change that will lengthen the 35 hour work week. They plan to strike at the very moment that the delegation from the International Olympic Committee that is deciding who will host the 2012 Games will arrive in Paris. For the unions, it’s a cynical and (I suspect) clearly effective ploy to gut the new change in the work week. For the rest of France, it’s more confirmation that while some politicans and leaders may see the on-coming train down the tracks away, they’re not willing to start tugging at the knot holding them to the tracks.
Comment by Steve White — 2/27/2005 @ 4:47 pm
Austin: “That’s why I think what will happen in Holland is something in between, but concentrating on a “re-birth of western values,” controlling immigration, and focusing on integration for the immigrants it allows.” You’re dreaming Austin. This is not what’s happening, what’s being discussed, and what, only God can forbid it, will happen in The Netherlands. The solutions that are being discussed really scare me. And that’s the solutions on both sides.
Comment by Berend de Boer — 2/27/2005 @ 5:15 pm
Europe is in decline, no doubt about it. Has been since the mad and catastrophic WW1. But they are still powerful economically. Their per capita GDP is still about $20,000 (in the West) . They have a powerful industrial base, a scientific and educational infrastructure. They are not going to implode, or be annihilated from outside, in the next - say - 50 years. The decline is slow, not steep or abrupt. Things may change, they may reverse course sometime in the future, when the ‘68 generation passes away.That is not a prediction. It is foolish to make predictions 50 years ahead, we usually fail in our 5 year or 2 year predictions. I don’t know what will happen, so I doubt all specific predictions. Is Europe dead ? The rumors about it’s death are premature. No doubt it lost the dominant position it held up to the 19th century. But even without being a dominant world power, they can live on, a comfortable life, for decades ? centuries ? who knows ?
Comment by Jacob — 2/27/2005 @ 5:15 pm
I agree with Rob above. One thing we all should have learned over the past twenty years is how quickly things can change. What ails Europe is no mistery, not even to most Europeans. I think they really would rather implode than admit Bush is right. But that climate will one day change and it will be possible for Europe to change course without losing face. In 1975 a political pundit would have been ridiculed mercilessly had they suggested the likes of Thatcher could have arisen in Britain, or for that matter, the likes of Reagan in the U.S. Just a few years later the revolution had begun. Truth can not be held back forever.
Comment by Mike Plaiss — 2/27/2005 @ 5:18 pm
In coming years, the bloated welfare systems of Old Europe are the only institutions that will collapse under their own weight; so also will go Western European defenses. America will be increasingly reluctant to share in the defense of former “allies” who are merely acting to hasten their own demise. The Bush Doctrine, and the current national policy, says that “You are either with us or with the terrorists.” In every single significant policy decision the Europeans (ex Britain) have made since 9/11, they have demonstrated that they are not with us. Very shortly, we will be returning the favor. Good post above re: the emigration of educated, wealthy Dutch. Expect this to accelerate, continent-wide, for the next 25 years or so, when those who remain are the only ones who can not afford boat tickets.
Comment by Kevin Walmsley — 2/27/2005 @ 5:21 pm
Jacob, it’s not an economic decline. It’s a social decline. It will be an us vs. them time. What do you think a certain percentage of the Dutch will do when the time of the sharia has come? Go silently into the night?
Comment by Berend de Boer — 2/27/2005 @ 5:31 pm
Perspective is called for! My impression is that contemporary commentators echo Yeats’ “lack all conviction” views from c. 1920. Let’s face it: European, if not Western, countries committed cultural suicide in 1914 - ‘18. Immolating the flower of their youth, heirs to Charlemagne, the surviving second-raters fell to squabbling over residual spoils through 1939, when the Armistice expired and nihilistic Existentialism fostered not societal rejuvenation but a font of so-called radicalism which at base claimed ease of livlihood by eating one’s seed-corn. Now “old Europe”, among others, is driving off a demographic cliff. West of the steppes, constituencies for growth-and-change have been killed off in a virtually Darwinian cycle that elevates passive mediocrity to prominance while actively penalizing innovation and self-deermination in every form. Consider Jacques Barzun’s magisterial “Dawn to Decadence”, an overview of Western evolution from Gutenburg in AD 1450 to network television c. 1950. “Better fifty years of Europe than a cycle of Cathay,” says Tennyson– alas, not any more. What’s left? Only the prospect that the Boomer Generation, born 1946, Class of 1968, the most surly and (technology aside) unproductive in our history, will slink to ruin without any meaningful legacy at all. Sons do not compete with Fathers, generally not even with Grandfathers; but on a 72-year cyclic basis, the 1932 - 2004 period may represent a historical down-phase comparable to the catastrophic 14th Century, “when God slept.” But today we know that other, emphatically non-cultural, factors may intrude. Spurious “warming” scenarios aside, we are ending a century’s rebound from the 500-year Little Ice Age that commenced c. 1315 and ended only about 1875. But we’re also some 2,500 years overdue for Ice to re-assert itself… Long Island is a terminal morraine, pushed up by glacial sheets 2.5 miles thick that stretched from Hudson’s Bay a mere twelve thousand years ago. And every 800 years, like clockwork, Planet Earth passes through an annular ring of dust in the inner Solar System that historically has extinguished every existing major culture, worldwide, since the dawn of civilization 8,000 years and counting. This will occur again in 2113, and then if not before, we’re entitled to expect the worst. My sense is, we’re still much too naive to deal with it… if we can’t even jack up the Old Europe, spinning recklessly to civilizational annihilation, how can “we” as Westerners ensure survival of all our heritage, that until 1914 was seen to matter most?
Comment by John Blake — 2/27/2005 @ 5:32 pm
One exception at least here in Europe: From living in Rome over the last few months and listening to people here, Italy seems to be no welfare state. Parents have to look after their kids to the age of 35 if they can’t make a living; the state won’t. Also, the number of Muslims seems to be pretty low here, at least in Rome. There are Asian immigrants (Chinese, I think) who run shops and restaurants while most of the internet cafes seem to be run by Pakistanis: people working and contributing to society.
Comment by Adam Khan — 2/27/2005 @ 5:38 pm
Yes, it certainly seems like Europe is on the ropes…. But off the bat, here are three possible solutions: 1. Emigrants from China to Europe 2. Immigrants into Europe from China 3. Chinese Aka, is weapons for bodies a fair deal? Of course they’d probably want Taiwan thrown in as part of the bargain. But Europe should have no problem with that.
Comment by Barry Meislin — 2/27/2005 @ 6:04 pm
Here I thought I was pessimistic about the Europeans. Well, I’d only point out that while Mr. Steyn’s citizenship may be Canadian, like the Dutch, he’s emigrated. To New Hampshire.
Comment by Mrs. Davis — 2/27/2005 @ 6:15 pm
A couple points from an American who lives in Germany: 1. The politicians here don’t have any silent plans to deal with problems either. They’re not that bright. Education here has very little to do with the development of critical thinking skills and everything to do with reinforcing the dominant ideas. It is a rationalist intellectual tradition….empiricism takes too much time and effort. Furthermore, the paternalist Staat ensures that citizens are shielded from the vicissitudes of the real world (with the help of the American military shield). The result is a nation of whose adults think as do college sophomores. They don’t have so much to learn as to unlearn. 2. Independent thought and action required considerably more moral courage here than in the States. There is just simply not the same individualism here. Don’t forget also, that the government here is party-based and within the parties they play for keeps. Vicious. Mavericks are dealt with, and so the only real chance would be a new party. The Greens were the last to really bridge the gap from fringe to influential, and there is no Reaganite party on the horizon. 3. Fischer is just as teflon-coated as before. He is in insufferable ass, but that falls under “he says what I wish I could bring myself to say” here. There is alternative. 4. Let’s not forget our basic economics here, shall we? Why has this massive influx of Moslem immigrants occured? Political persecution at home and economic opportunities in Europe. Thanks to W and friends, persecution is heading for a serious decline, and economic opportunities in the Middle East will improve. As Europe declines, the difference won’t be worth packing the U-Haul and filling out the paperwork. In fact, expect a goodly number to head back. 5. Radical Islam never developed the “vale of tears” idea of this world that Christianity did. Islamicism is supposed to be a recipe for earthly happiness as well. So who’s doing more for the earthly happiness of the Moslem world that all the venom-spewing imams put together? Expect that as information becomes freer that disinformation will be easier to spot. 6. With the birthrates I can’t help much, or at least not much that wouldn’t get me in a great deal of trouble with the wife. They must have a basic idea here of how it’s done, because it’s on TV constantly. The problem is, what you see there makes you want to yell “No, no, no, that’s not right! That isn’t how it’s done! I’ve seen it done better in a kennel!”. Seriously, what they show has all the romance of a dog humping a chair leg. Actually, refer back to my college sophomores point. One’s not ready to be a parent until one is ready to stop being a child. Another strike against paternalism. But I imagine that they’ll manage to figure out some sort of financial incentive. All these need development, but it’s late and I’ve got to work to support those who can’t or won’t.
Comment by LizardAbroad — 2/27/2005 @ 6:31 pm
I’ve got a solution for europe’s immigration problem that will help a lot with the US problem with illegal aliens from Mexico. An Airlift. We start with Spain, and send them every Mexican that wants to work here but that we can’t handle. Mexicans will get along wonderfully in Spain …they already speak the language. Plus they have a strong work ethic and are pretty feisty. If an Islamist goes after one of their women for not wearing a veil, the Islamist is likely to find himself in small pieces. And it won’t be the men that will do the slicing. After Spain finds out how great they are, we start shipping them to other parts of Europe. And we can add in other South American countries who might like to export workers. We can take in the Chinese, they are wasted on Europe.
Comment by Kathy K — 2/27/2005 @ 6:45 pm
The trouble with straight line projections is that nothing ever keeps going in a straight line. One can say with certainty that a motorcyclist speeding down a road toward a washed-out bridge will be in the river in 23 minutes, but it doesn’t happen. He finally sees the washed-out bridge and changes direction. The common people of Europe will not sit idly by and watch the muslims peacefully take over a land they have maintained for two thousand blood-soaked years. The EUlites might be disinclined to fight for the land of their fathers, but the common people will. The Dutch are the canary in the mineshaft. There will come a flash point, probably in the next ten years, and the muslims will be evicted, probably bloodily. If the French are lucky, they’ll get a Charles Martel; if unlucky, they’ll get a Robespierre or a Napoleon. If they Germans are lucky, they’ll get a Sobieski; if unlucky, they’ll get a Himmler or Hitler. By that time W’s good work in the Middle East will have been completed by President Rice, and we can all get ready for China.
Comment by Walt Erickson — 2/27/2005 @ 6:49 pm
That means Europe will be almost wholly dependent on the Muslim world for immigration - and one of the features of super-tolerant anything-goes post-Christian Europe is that it radicalises hitherto moderate Muslims. Look at the number of Islamist terrorists who are creatures of the Euro-Canadian welfare systems - Richard Reid the shoe bomber, Zac Moussaoui, Ahmed Ressam, even Mohammed Atta’s political character was formed in large part by his time in Germany. In the view of noted historian of Islam Bat Ye’or, it is precisely the massive Muslim immigration that has caused Europe to become “post-Christian.” A senior Dutch cabinet minister told me in 2003 that what really scared him was that young Dutch Muslims were more Islamist and less assimilated than the grandparents who’d arrived in the early Seventies. This fits in with Bat Ye’or’s views as well. She argues that Muslim immigrants to a nation are instructed not to assimilate, and in fact to attack the host culture, with the specific view of taking it over. In her view these actions by the massive immigrant Muslim population are in large part responsible for the decline of Europe. She feels that once Muslims are in sufficient positions of political power in Europe, non-Muslims will be treated as second-class citizens, as they are in many Muslim nations today. She cites the examples of several formerly Christian nations in which the Christian inhabitants were one day surprised to find themselves out of power and treated as “dhimmi,” or second-class citizens, due to just such tactics. Arguing from these views, the only way for Europe to save itself would be to find a way to peacefully dispel the hostile Muslim culture in its midst. Bat Ye’or feels that it may be too late to save Europe. I discuss Bat Ye’or’s views in additional detail on my site, here.
Comment by Vik Rubenfeld — 2/27/2005 @ 7:09 pm
STEYN ON CSPAN–Those who’ve read Mark Steyn and want to see and hear him can go to: http://www.c-span.org/homepage.asp and enter Steyn in the Video Search field. If you’ve got broadband and Real Player, you can watch his hour-long interview from last Saturday. –Mike Perry, Seattle
Comment by Mike Perry — 2/27/2005 @ 7:19 pm
There is another possible demographic wild card: Suppose that the U.S. clamps down hard on illegal immigration from Mexico and point further South (because of our security concerns)- at the same time that a now frightened EU casts a wider net for young laborers to come from non-muslim countries? Spain and Portugal in particular could easily substitute Latin American immigrants who already speak Spanish or Portugese. Unlike muslim or various Asian groups these immigrants already share essentially Western values with the EU. It is important to remember that the present situation developed by default and the historical accident that North Africa is geographically closer than South America. Now that the EU countries are becoming aware of the problem there will be increasing pressure on europoliticians to do something about it- and a policy of diluting the muslim imigrants with nonmuslim ones is an easy way out. So in addition to smart highly educated Asians (who are also part of a demographic fix) it would be logical for Europe to turn to Latin America to help balance the numbers. Meanwhile, although they are 5 or six years behind us in developing the full use of blogs and newsgroups to carry out a full scale dialogue on these and other public issues I beleive that Mark Steyn’s analysis (which is otherwise devastatingly accurate, as always) does not fully acknowledge the rate at which this and other technological advances have accelerated the rate at which attitudes and public policies can change- even in Old Europe.
Comment by Harold A. Fretheim — 2/27/2005 @ 7:26 pm
I see that while I was composing my longer post, Kathy K anticipate my argument about substituting Mexicans (and other Latin Americans) for muslims. I agree with her that these folk are very tough and would not let the muslims push them around.
Comment by Harold A. Fretheim — 2/27/2005 @ 7:35 pm
Steyn is a brilliant commentator. So is Austin Bay. However, I don’t think either of them fully appreciates how often the arc of history is broken by megaevents or by movements that are embrionic at the time of the prediction but grow to a size that effects the arc of history. One quite possible such megaevent is the next pandemic. Europe’s population pyramid may be changed dramatically depending on which population groups are hit by the anticipated avian flu outbreak. Another possible megaevent would be a breakthrough in energy. An embrionic movement now in progress is the Islamic apostate movement. The internet has given apostates a chance to organize and communicate for the fist time in history. By this time next year, Ibn Warraq will have his next book out. It will, among other things, give easy to understand evidence that the Quran is basically a fraud (most non muslims know this already and many moslems know this but can’t admit it to themselves). If Warraq’s book sells well the Islamic apostate movement will get the kind of media coverage that may change the momentum of Islam. Another embrionic movement is democratic reform in the middle east. One of favorite quotes in this regard is from the Asimov trilogy. “Until it falls, the might tree gives every appearance of permanence. (I probably don’t have that exactly - I’m doing that from memory)”
Comment by mhw — 2/27/2005 @ 7:36 pm
The ethnic Dutch nation is indeed the ‘canary in the mineshaft’ but what is it going to do - other than attempt to stem the tide. The demographics are against the slowing of the pace of Muslim immigration being the solution: natural increase from higher birthrates is the time bomb the Dutch have imported into their country. There have been signs and portents of the current problem for at least a decade and nothing was done. The core of the problem is a lack of honesty in political discourse in the West generally about the fundamental incompatibility of Islamic-Arab cultural values and social norms with a secular democratic political system. It would have been prudent for Western nations, before deciding to permit immigration en masse from the Magreb and the Middle East to have consulted local Lebanese Maronites, Coptic Egyptians and Armenians - Christian peoples with a long history of living amongst Arab Muslims - and asked them what their views were on such an immigration policy.
Comment by Isserles — 2/27/2005 @ 7:58 pm
It seems apropos at this moment to consider historical precedence as to why “civilizations” fall. Rome, it can be argued, fell either from within due to its own decadence, or from without due to the hungrier, ravaging hordes. The USSR seems to have collapsed due to the inherent economic mismanagement of the communist system they employed. Many EU countries (e.g. France, Greece) would seem doomed to follow the economic collapse model - socialism is inherently unsustainable, especially when external alternatives exist. My own prediction (fwiw) is that the current socialist countries will still exist, but will have to undergo a series of changes that leave them mostly unrecognizable. My feeling is that they are ripe for a “hand over everything to a centralized EU authority, we can’t handle the mess we’ve created” scenario, involving a charismatic, take-charge, “pay-the-price” nationalistic/EUistic leader.
Comment by David Carraher — 2/27/2005 @ 8:14 pm
The multitude of comments in this thread seems to believe that Europe is in upheaval. I agree with that and as a Canadian who is a naturalized US citizen, my vote will go with the majority and side with the “liberty and freedom sells to the street” crowd, those who have values such as “don’t saw folks heads off for the purpose of propoganda” and who are core to a large part of the planet. I send my fellow Canadians this message. In my opinion, Canada has become morally bankrupt in so many ways. “Physician, heal thyself!” My first visit back out east in 10 years last 2004 was a surprise. I and my family spent 10 days in the Ottawa Valley for my father’s funeral. From an investment and infrastructure point of view, Canada appears to be in a tailspin. Too many toilets were broke. Too many buildings were in need of upgrade. This is what happens when nothing matters. When nothing is broke, nothing is important. When everything is equal, it’s all “relative”. Oh Canada, my home and native land…take a stand, you’re kind of wishy-washy right now. Cheers, bt
Comment by btacon — 2/27/2005 @ 8:16 pm
Hey Bruce (from about 24 comments up), Mark Steyn can’t run for President. He’s a Canadian. Mark Steyn for Prime Minister!
Comment by Japnaam Singh — 2/27/2005 @ 8:20 pm
My children went to schools in Holland for their teen years. Uniformly, the teachers were rabid communists, and had done their best to indoctrinate their students. The kids refused to be brainwashed, and stood up against the outright lies being told about life in America. They had to be moved several times because of teacher objections to their Americanism, even as they learned Dutch in about three months and could debate in Dutch with the best. This thorough indoctrination of whole generations of Europeans is one main root of the Hate America we are seeing now, and I do believe it is an European-wide trend. So we are also seeing Marx in headlong confrontation with Muhammad. It should be interesting to watch, if it were not so tragic for the people, and eventually us.
Comment by Mannning — 2/27/2005 @ 8:23 pm
As a person with strong ties to Europe, I’m inclined to agree with Mark. In just the last decade I’ve noticed a marked decline in livability in countries including Germany. I disagree on one thing though. Singaporeans don’t have to wait another decade to write their ticket anywhere in the world. They already can. Singaporeans are among the world’s best educated and ambitious people.
Comment by craig — 2/27/2005 @ 8:39 pm
I think you guys are underrating whitey, the planet’s peremiere killer hominid varient. Don’t you read VSH? The Muslims will push untill they’ve succeeded in collapsing the social contract and created a situation of lawnessness, their brilliant idea being that once decadent western capitalism is removed glorious Sharia law will naturally arise to take it’s place. The result, however, will be genocide- of the muslims. The muslims will be annialated like they were in Kosovo and tragically the moderates will go into the mass graves with the extreemists. The only thing peotecting these idiots from their Christan neighbors is the fact that Westerners respect the law and refrian from sectarian violence. Once real war breaks out the Mosques will start burning and the call will go out to America. “Oh my God, DOOOOOO SOMETHINNNNG!”. But what this time? It’ll be ugly, really, really ugly. But that’s nothing new for good old Europe, is it now? The greatest modern proponent of the gas chamber and industrialised murder.
Comment by Amos — 2/27/2005 @ 8:59 pm
I know this article is from the New York Times, but it appears that the Dutch middle-class have seen the same trends that Steyn recognizes. I just wonder who will be left to turn off the lights…. H/T - LGF
Comment by ARC: St Wendeler — 2/27/2005 @ 9:02 pm
As a European myself, I don’t think Europe is destined to lose to Islam as some people think. I actually doubt whether Islam itself is going to survive this century and people like Ibn Warraq and Ali Sina. Europe’s days as a leading economic zone on the planet are probably numbered. We will slip down to a distant third place after North America and Asia.
Comment by Fjordman — 2/27/2005 @ 9:31 pm
What Austin and Mark have NOT addressed in their posts is the powerful transormative potential of the Baha’i Teachings on the Muslim world. With the potential to turn hundreds of millions of Muslims into peaceful, God-fearing and cooperative citizens in a matter of weeks, this is no small omission in a dialogue of this magnitude!
Comment by Carridine — 2/27/2005 @ 10:25 pm
Y’all forget that Europe today is far more capitalist than it was twenty years ago and that Europeans who actually run businesses are well aware of the challenges they face. Europe can adapt, and has indeed adapted in many significant ways. Mitterrand and Jospin did more deregulating and privatizing than anyone in Europe, including Thatcher. Overall, I’m neither optimistic nor pessimistic on Europe’s demographic/socio-economic challenge because it depends on two variables that no one can predict with any confidence: 1) changes in European women’s attitudes toward childbearing and family life, and 2) Europe’s ability to attract talented, hardworking Asian immigrants. It’s important to remember that Europe’s current low birth rate is largely driven by a recent shift away from very high childbirth rates to very low ones in the late-adopter, newly feminist cultures of Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Just as these cultures adopted feminism in the late 1980’s and 1990’s, they can very easily go back the other way during the next twenty years for the same reasons that so many American women have gone back to the mommy track: the single professional life is not all it’s cracked up to be, and no achievement compares to the satisfaction of raising a child successfully. So let’s not be surprised if we see the same upward childbirth trend in Europe that we saw in the US: perhaps not to replacement level but certainly closer to 1.8 or 1.9. Likewise, we should nto underestimate Europe’s ability to alter its immigration patterns. Obviously, muslim resenters looking to grab a spot in the queue for the dole will not solve Europe’s manpower needs; just as obviously, there are tens of millions of educated Asians who have a strong work ethic and are looking to contribute to society. Despite the stupdity of Europe’s political classes and the opposition of big labor, one can expect that Europe will discover the Indians and Chinese and provide them the right financial incentives to emigrate because Europe’s business elites see the writing on the wall. To be more precise, they’ve been to Bangalore and Shanghai. Offshore outsourcing is growing even faster in Europe than it is in the US, especially in France and Holland, and the unions will not be able to stop this trend. Likewise, if Europe’s national champion corporations need increasing numbers of hardworking, skilled Java programmers etc, and if Europe’s young slackers and perpetual students aren’t up to the challenge, then the business elite will force the politicos to provide access and incentives for specialist immigrants from India and China. Given educational and hiring trends, I’d say this is a more likely scenario than the ones sketched out here. In sum I think it’s not unlikely that Europe in another 20 years could have 1) a rising birthrate among native-born women; 2) a stabilized muslim population; and 3) a sharply increased non-muslim educated immigrant workforce comprising Indians and Chinese primarily.
Comment by thibaud — 2/27/2005 @ 10:40 pm
Re: 61 I agree with Amos that Muslims will continue to push until they’ve pushed too far, and then face the rath of the sleeping giant. The Western European variant of Homo Sapiens is by far the most ruthless, brutal, and efficient killer the world has ever seen, and it’s only by a miracle of evolutionary magic that we are also some of the greatest proponents of peace and liberty. Think about it; if America was really the rabidly bellicose empire everyone seems to think it is, could we not already own the world? We already have militarily presence in over a hundred countries, and I don’t think all the nations in the world could stand against us if we were really determined to take them down, with the exception that China and India could put up a good fight due to massive manpower, but fighting us would likely ruin them. Good thing for the world that fevered fantasies of aggressive American imperialism are just that; fantasy. If anything, we will make the nations of the world free and peaceful, whether they want it or not. It’ll be like Pax Romana, but with nukes, and democracy instead of empire.
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/27/2005 @ 10:58 pm
Much of the argument for Europe’s ultimate demise is premised on the assumption that Europe cannot respond to a crisis- pointing to the fact that most European countries have been unable to produce a Ronald Reagan equivalent. That is why the 1968 generation is still in charge. These people forget that Americans were acutely aware of their crisis in 1980- while the Europeans were not (except the British, who brought in Thatcher and are somewhat better off than their neighbors as a result). Even though they were largely threatened by the same things they simply relied upon the US to solve the problem (and their confidence was well rewarded). The difference is that this time the crisis is internal- it is not one that can logically or even irrationally be shifted to the U.S. or anyone else. In the age of the internet the reaction time of the public is vastly accelerated- even in Europe. The days of the 1968 generation are now numbered. Europe will react- probably in a panic- but almost certainly not by agreeing to become ‘Eurabia’. The same conceited eurocentrism that finds its partial expression in anti-Americanism will preclude such a surrender.
Comment by Harold A. Fretheim — 2/27/2005 @ 11:19 pm
One noty on Canada and Anti-Americanism. While Canadian Media (Apart from a few newspapers) is overwhelmingly anti-american, remember that Canadians who don’t subscribe to these views simply watch/read American Media. There’s a reason why the CRTC has been desperately trying to prevent Fox from coming up here (Which was Futile, Fox is scheduled to get a cable license, after they threatened to sue the CRTC when they got denied and Al-Jazeera was approved. You should note that apart from local news, most Canadians watch US channels anyways. The only Canaidan Channels with robust viewership are local/regional ones like CityTV, The New VR, ITV and BCTV. CTV and especially CBC are barely hanging on (If CBC TV wasn’t government funded, it would have gone out of business a decade ago).
Comment by Adam Maas — 2/27/2005 @ 11:35 pm
(What a great thread!) Bush and Rice recognize that Europe must get worse before it gets better. It is certain that the clueless elites in Brussels will overreach and that all sorts of economic, political, and demographic disasters will ensue, and a continent-wide reaction in the 20-teens will result in a huge pro-American realignment. It’s just like in the Middle East – destabilize the regime and the people’s aspirations for freedom will ultimately be irresistible. In the case of Europe, the rulers’ control of information and other aspects of society is so strong that ordinary diplomacy is useless, and the people can’t (yet) handle the truth. The really unusual phenomenon, historically, is that politics in European countries has become so feeble and restricted that no sensible Opposition exists: we can’t simply work to encourage more Thatchers because any such resolute and clear-seeing politicians have been shut out by the major parties, and the ones in the minor parties have been slandered and marginalized. (As Mark Steyn notes, it’s unacceptable when the political alternatives are left-of-right-of-left-of-center and right-of-left-of-right-of-left-of-center.) THAT is why Bush and Rice are adopting the more radical policy of letting Europe go ahead with its crazy plans, like a teenager who needs to be allowed to fail on his own before he can recognize the hard facts his parents have been trying to drum into him. The big danger in this policy is that the teenager might make some really dangerous choices and fall into really bad company. Bush and Rice are counting on ordinary Europeans to eventually rise up and put an end to the nonsense; they are right that ultimately freedom must prevail against both bureaucratic tyranny and Islamist barbarism, but how bloody must it be?
Comment by Joseph Shipman — 2/27/2005 @ 11:37 pm
The fact that the amazing Mark Steyn has chosen here to lose his “blogospheric virginity” compels me to do likewise, cause I wanna be just like him. Also the thought of Europe becoming a humongous abbatoir I find disturbingly appealing.
Comment by Clyde Hudson — 2/27/2005 @ 11:50 pm
Don’t feel too satisfied you fellow Americans- the illegal alien invasion by Latin America will result in revolution just as certainly once we are irretrievably wedded to Latin America {no more than 8 years from now} The law of unforseen consequences hit Europe when they created a binational state- in Latin America, America-hating is a national sport. Do you think it will be different? Laugh at “old Europe” while you can. Sad to say, the death of the West means us too…
Comment by Jay Maxwell — 2/27/2005 @ 11:56 pm
Jay Maxwell has a point in 71, there is a lot of hostility in Latin America toward the U.S., but I think that as more people gain greater exposure to the U.S. through travel and the internet, that will change. It’s easy to hate someone you’ve never met, which explains why I know so many Mexicans and Muslims who wouldn’t live anywhere else but America. Conversely, I also know many Americans who have never been anywhere else, or at best, they’ve been to France, (if you can call that “at best”), and who hate America and would love to leave. In my dreams I imagine all the native born ingrates traded off with Mexico and Asia in a sort of citizen exchange program. We give them one spoiled, middle class, radicalized, self-loathing, miseducated, indoctrinated, liberal white or black ex-American for every hard working, smart, ambitious new-American they send us. I bet we could find a few Cubans, North Koreans, and Canadians willing to swap places with an American who longs for life in a socialist paradise.
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/28/2005 @ 12:17 am
What Improbulus said. We need a Swaps Program: free US citizenship to any hard science PhD or tech entrepreneur so long as as his or her host country extends immediate citizenship to one or more of our slacker idiotarians-in-exile. No returns, and no tears. Tariff reductions if the country in question offers to take 10 or more idiotarians for each science or tech professional offered.
Comment by thibaud — 2/28/2005 @ 12:50 am
Re: #71, this is a good point; however, Muslim immigration is far more dangerous, because they have a culture of jihad in which they are taught not to assimilate into the surrounding culture. Publications found in Saudi-backed mosques on U.S. soil say things such as the following: “Be dissociated from the infidels, hate them for their religion, leave them, never rely on them for support, do not admire them, and always oppose them in every way according to Islamic law.” (Additional quotes are here.) “Hate them for their religion” — that means us. This is new here in the U.S. In Europe it’s been going on for 30 years.
Comment by Vik Rubenfeld — 2/28/2005 @ 12:54 am
First off, what’s with this attitude of drawing immigrants from Latin America or China? Were it that simple, the bureaucrats would already have such things in motion, and immigration rests on far more factors than simply demand or intent to acquire. “Well…I could do with more Chinese this year” doesn’t work,and in a legitimate political system, especially one as socialist and calcified as the European systems, it wouldn’t make it past committee anyway. Besides, if the European governments are as petty, parochial, and self-serving as some have suggested, they will likely not turn to solutions to the problem, especially ones that Americans would come to think of. If anything, they’ll seek to benefit themselves in whatever way yields the least resistence and pain and higher values be damned. Look at what the earlier posts said and put it together. Europe is too far gone in a lot of ways, and while there is hope, those who run business, the people with sense, are not the ones running the government. Those that are running the systems are isolated socialists pining for the good old days, hating America for winning the mighty clash of Capitalism vs. Communism, and looking to stick it to “the Man” anyway they can while maintaining their own status as “the Man” in their own states and anywhere else in the world they can lend renewed attempts at old world imperialism. The extant parties are more likely to begin embracing radical muslim factions or allow them to participate in the system. In so doing, they will further normalize theocratic vitriol (which is okay, so long as it’s not Christian theocracy) and backwards, brutish political sentiments. The sensible ones will leave, and the socialists and islamic fanatics wll hold sway in the governments. Europe will retrograde all the while insisting on it’s continued relevance and harboring the next generation of modern-day socialists and islamic radicals. I’d suggest we abandon any thought of helping them with their “problems” and instead insure that nothing sustains or strengthens the creature that Europe will become. I say we court China’s burgeoning economy, while encouraging and helping with reforms and the resultant consequences. We can help China more than Europe can, and the Chinese leadership should know this. And if they don’t, we should diplomatically seek to enlighten them as to what direction their growing partnerships with Europe would take. Also, enough with the “Western European variant” bs. Humans are humans, and what natures they have are both based on the specific nature of the individual, and the culture that that individual has been subjected to. Unless you’re suggesting that Asian, Indian, and Black soldiers serving in our armed forces simply lack the killer instinct of their white brethern. Save the belief in that racial stock bs for the Euros. Yrs., TWK
Comment by Jon — 2/28/2005 @ 1:02 am
Oh, and one more thing. While you’re dropping sci-fi references–which are wholly irrelevant to the discussion at hand, really–y’all should drop more Orson Scott Card. Finally read Ender’s Game and Ender’s Shadow,and both have direct relevance to certain matters in the world today. IIRC, Mr. Card has written a column or more on the importance of the War on Terror as well. But, c’mon people… Leave the sci-fi out of this. One does not drop Asimov quotes in real-world discussion. Outside of a sci-fiCon anyway. Yrs., Twk
Comment by Jon — 2/28/2005 @ 1:07 am
Something that has occurred to me re America’s problem with Mexican illegals is why doesn’t the US just turn around and tell the Mexican government that either it shapes up, controls its own borders - or the US will just expand south, and engulf Mexico. Mexico seems to think that the move will go one way - north - but that I think, is silly and naiive.
Comment by heatherc — 2/28/2005 @ 1:41 am
Walt Erickson says that Europe will eventually fight, and expel the Islamists. I don’t know. I hope so, but there’s no guarantee. Funny thing about fighting off threats – you have to have the strength and the will. Europe’s strength is a little low these days, but as VDH reminds us, they are Western in their way of war, and can be very, very deadly. They have the strength. But do they have the will? France didn’t when Hitler invaded. The entire country pretty much just shrugged and learned the proper new salute. If there are enough of the enemy, I’m afraid all of Europe may just shrug and learn the proper way to beat a woman for showing her ankle in public. Those who say the Generation of ’68 is the problem are certainly right, but that generation is not gone from the scene yet, and continues to do damage. Will Europe’s morale be up to the task when the last of the Marxists are finally dead and buried?
Comment by (the other) John Hawkins — 2/28/2005 @ 2:02 am
I gotta go with Mark on this one. 4 numbers tell the tail: 1.4 2.1 4.6 300 Europe’s replacement rate is 1.4 children per woman during her childbearing years. Replacement rate is 2.1, 1 for each parent and a little bit to grow on. In Morocco and Algeria where most of Frances immigrants come from, it’s 4.6 per woman. How can anyone argue with that??? The French Secret Service created a secret report which stated that there were 300 “Islamic Enclaves” within France where French law doesn’t rule and French culture is all but hated. How can anyone argue with the booing of Le Marsilles(sp?) the French national anthem. These immigrants HATE Europe and everything it stands for. HATE! If I remember correctly Chiraq himself got firebombed when he went into one of these cities grovelling for votes. By 2100, 50% of children in French schools will be muslims!!!! FOrget it. Europe’s had it. Godspeed
Comment by America's Resolve — 2/28/2005 @ 2:25 am
RE:#65 - Thibaud So let’s not be surprised if we see the same upward childbirth trend in Europe that we saw in the US: perhaps not to replacement level but certainly closer to 1.8 or 1.9.
If it was just Europe’s replacement rate, I’d go with ya. But European population is not the only number in this mix. Even if Europeans were at replacement rate tomorrow, they’d still be outbred by the 2.1 vs 4.6 replacement rate of the Muslims in their midst. 200 years instead of 100. I REALLY hope that you’re right. I DON’T want to see Europe fail. But I’m VERY pessimistic. “Really, Really, Ugly” as another poster put it above. At LEAST that. But far more difficult. After all, many of the Muslims have been in the country for 3 generations. Sometimes marrying Europeans and there are mixed bloodlines across the continent. how do they tell who should be killed or deported and who not? It’s going to be a difficult problem in the extreme to deal with.
Comment by America's Resolve — 2/28/2005 @ 2:55 am
The most important question for Europe is whether their selfish decadence can overcome their postmodern pacifism. i.e., they are so pleased with their cosseted indulgent lifestyles (marijuana, prostitution, strip clubs, in addition to their state benefits) they will not wish to give them up when demographics threaten to make sharia the law. But will they find that they still have enough cojones to actually do anything about preventing sharia? Over the last few decades, as Europe demilitarised, it has attempted to make a virtue of necessity, to claim that the loss of military potency was in fact a sign of moral superiority, especially compared to those barbaric Yanks. Pacifism is ingrained in the European psyche now. And another consideration, just as we saw with the rise (and fall) of fascism and the rise (and fall) of communism in Europe, there will of course be a significant portion of the European populace who supports the other side. In the case of communism, a large proportion (of both Old and New European) *still does* despite the manifest failure of it both morally and economically. Of the postmodern left who cannot mak a value judgment, who cannot say that democracy is better than sharia, how many will continue to rot European society from the inside once the merde really hits the fan? I do not know but I suspect strongly that it will be larger than during earlier episodes of European sturm und drang.
Comment by Former CNN Watcher — 2/28/2005 @ 5:14 am
Europe is doomed, Both political and cultural Marxism is a terminal toxic poison, where communism was Euro socialism in a Hurry, Euro-Socialism is Communism is slow motion, leftism is a death cult. We see in them a spiritual death too, Cultural Marxism has cored the soul out of them, i cant see them regaining the needed culture of Patriarchy. American Conservatives are guided by logic and leftists by feelings, and Europe seem to me the land of the terminally feelings based effeminates. I just cat see them embracing the very thing their marxist brainwash programing defines as the most evil of all evils. All of Europe seems like the intelectual bankruptcy we are seeing writ large at harvard where the man dared admit sexual differences. Europe cant even admit that their “Third Way” was already tried in the form of National Socialism, Benito’s Facism, and the Capitalist Roaders of China. Heyek was right when he told us that such things will always devolve into autocratic thugacracies that are nothing more but ruling crime lords. The same corruption is why Russias “free” market cant get started. Not that the USA is perfect, we almost elected a traitor that colaborated with the Veitcong, a regime that murdered their own with a 5% death quota, and we had enough leftist evil in the MSM to suppress that information for many Americans The fact that such a disgusting leftist slug got so many votes here in the USA tells us we have yet more work to do here at home. The only wildcard would be the rise and spread of alternative media of some kind, blogs, something. But from here, they look too far gone, and too brainwashed with leftist evil to save.
Comment by Raymond — 2/28/2005 @ 7:40 am
One other point that is important: Every time that ‘Europe’ detects a problem, the answer is always, strengthen the EU. As Garton Ash put it, “deepen and widen.” Rahter than experimenting amongst the various states, as the US does, the EU regulates all aspects of life within the EU. The elite have a snobbish attitude toward ‘the masses’ and the elites view of the future is a VERY strong EU. The latest madness (regulating overbooking in the airlines) has already had a negative result - a BA flight from LA had to cross the Atlantic with only 3 functioning engines, as delaying would have cost the company approx. $100,000. Does anybody here believe the EU will now so sorry and rescind the legislation? The US and the EU have parted ways, and the EU reponse to their economic problems will be to create an economic zone for themselves - more so than it already is. They’ll also sell arms to China, and anybody else who offers them cash, in an attempt to delay the obvious. As far as I can tell, the Bush administration is hoping that some adults in Europe will eventually be elected and have a change of heart - unfortunately, I don’t think the media campaign of anti-Americanism can just be switched off with a change of leadership in Europe. Assimilation is a two-way street; far too many immigrants in Europe are told point-blank to their faces that they’ll never be German, or French, or what have you. Being an American is believing in a political creed; being European is a shared heritage, and far too many Europeans have a fatal conceit that everyone wants to be like them.
Comment by Jean — 2/28/2005 @ 8:31 am
Referring to the Bay-Steyn conversation, Bay says ‘Changing conditions that spark migration means extending economic opportunities and “the liberty engine” that drives creative economic success to the hellholes our Salvarodn and Dinka and Berber are leaving.’ Is anyone out there aware of some part of Bush’s immigration policy which does this? We’ve got NAFTA (which has caused mogration of US jobs) but that sure hasn’t slowed the illegal migration into the US. If the Bush policy pushed hard on reform in the Central American ‘hellholes’, I might be able to gin up a bit more sympathy for it.
Comment by Patrick — 2/28/2005 @ 8:55 am
I sent in comment # 83 before I had seen Col. Bay’s update and his mention of Algeria. I was in a bar with a friend in Feb. of ‘03, and our waiter was Algerian. His entire family had been murdered by the throat-slashers back in Algeria, but he was opposed to deposing Saddam - people everywhere want stability over chaos. Most of the world believes that the dictators are necessary to keep the jihadis in check, whereas the US believes the dictators create the jihadis. How does the US convincingly sell its ideas when we know that chaos will reign in the short term? A second point is that it is the European born Muslims, with the exception of the Balkans (although the Saudis have moved in there too) that are radicalized, not their parents who emigrated originally. Does the welfare state cause this? If so, then a radical restructuring of the welfare state is necessary, but the EU’s inability to create jobs means there’ll be a lag between cutting off benefits and the creation of new jobs - what happens in the interim?
Comment by Jean — 2/28/2005 @ 8:55 am
A good analogy for what Europe may become is South America. Countries such Argentina had comprehensive welfare states long before Europe but what happened subsequently were a long steady decline, not just in the productivity of the private sector but also the public sector. The end result was a low level of GDP accompanied by a public sector that taxed a relatively high share of GDP but provided virtually no useful services in return. This was accompanied by quasi dictatorships and terrorism but no significant brake by democratic methods. The dictatorship possibilities are obvious –they will typically arise through the EU and in response to far left and Islamic terrorism – just as South America has been wracked by and alliance of left wing and Indian based terrorists. If you want a time scale for how this plays out, then I think that Peronism is the closest analogy with third way politics in Europe today. Juan Peron himself is comparable to the strutting, semi fascist Chirac esque side of European policy while Evita is parallels the women’s right and o so vonderful social programs beloved of sanctimonious European policy makers. If you follow this path you get a basically 50 year economic accompanied by democtaic decline with matters only solved through external crisis – e.g. Falklands war gets rid of the Generals, 2002 peso collapse brings the economic policy back to sense. The important point here is that both events also had significant external risk and effects; if the Falklands war was lost then, Thatcher would have lost and the UK would be a pretty third world place by now. Similarly the peso crisis could have undermined the international financial system. In summary I don’t think the Europe will resolve its problems internally – only external events will correct its errors and these cant be guaranteed to have benign effects.
Comment by Giles — 2/28/2005 @ 8:58 am
It may be that the rebirth of the ‘West’ is the delivery unto them of a people willing and able to fight for their beliefs. One wonders what they’ll believe when and if that time comes. ===========================================================================================================
Comment by Kim — 2/28/2005 @ 10:32 am
Americans should not make the same mistake on Europe that Europeans make about the US - that it is homogenous. While the political classes of Italy, France and Germany swan from reception to fraud hearing back to the banquet, the UK is standing stage-right ready to plunge the dagger into the EU. It’s a foregone conclusion that the UK will vote ‘no’ in the impending referendum on approving the new EU constitution. The EU may not be able to survive this; the UK won’t want to remain in an unchanged EU if it does. It won’t be long before the man on the French or German street look towards the UK’s prosperity and begin to question the unaccountable mess that is the EU. Already the French are thinking about repealing the maximum legal weekly working hours (35). So the EU isn’t going to get much stronger - but the individual countries might. My money is on the ones actively dealing with the up and coming state pension fiasco (today’s workers will no longer be able to pay for today’s pensioners). This was the UK ’till Gordon Brown started selling off the family silver. God help us all if he becomes Prime Minister.
Comment by Greg — 2/28/2005 @ 11:02 am
Tying together three earlier points, on Rome, on Europe’s stagnant birthrate, and Sci-Fi. In post 56, David Carraher notes that “It seems apropos at this moment to consider historical precedence as to why “civilizations” fall. Rome, it can be argued, fell either from within due to its own decadence, or from without due to the hungrier, ravaging hordes.” Somewhere along the way, I learned that Rome’s lead-lined water system was a factor in the decline of the Roman Empire. It caused a decline in birthrate among the aristocracy, that is, those who could afford indoor plumbing, while not affecting the under classes. If true, this is a direct parallel to what fate awaits Europe if the native population’s decline in birthrate isn’t corrected. One of Sci-fi’s most valuable benefits is its ability to help us explore “what if” scenarios. One 3-episode story arc of Stargate SG-1, (a show filmed on location in Vancouver, Canada, by the way), showed how a race called the Aschen befriended other civilizations, gave them access to limited technology and medicine, and along with their medicine, reduced the birthrates of these civilizations to the point of collapse. Voila! The Aschen gain a nicely-appointed planet, free of its former inhabitants. Back in the real world, still, the parallels are disturbing.
Comment by Thomas Jackson — 2/28/2005 @ 12:28 pm
Re. # 80 America’s Resolve: “Even if Europeans were at replacement rate tomorrow, they’d still be outbred by the 2.1 vs 4.6 replacement rate of the Muslims in their midst” Birth rates are _dynamic_. Factors that push birthrates down include urbanization and increased wealth, which go together. An Algerian family living in a rural or village environment will have a very high birthrate; that family’s children, should they migrate to an Algerian city, will have a significantly lower birthrate, and if they were to migrate to Paris would have a still lower birthrate. Past trends do not predict future ones. Thirty years ago one could easily have predicted, based on the history of family relations and mores in deeply Catholic countries such as Spain, Italy and Ireland, that these societies would in 2005 have had birthrates in the 2.5-3.0 range. Surprise: democratization in Spain, rapid economic growth in Ireland and the influence of greater wealth and feminism throughout these countries meant that Spanish, Italian and Irish women suddenly became more interested in careers and money making than in marrying and having children. Euro-Catholics can and did change. It’s not impossible that the secular Euro-muslims can alter their family size as well. In any case, don’t extrapolate data from the rural Maghreb onto urban Europe.
Comment by thibaud — 2/28/2005 @ 1:37 pm
I reluctantly disagree with those who believe that the Europeans will physically resist encroachment by unassimilated Muslims. Basic fact: given the inexorable demographics, Muslims will comprise a majority of military-age males in, say, France and Belgium before the native Europeans in those countries will organize to violently defend their culture. And a higher percentage of military-age Muslim males than native Europeans in the same age cohort will be willing to fight. So the native Europeans will lose an armed conflict. This prospect pains me greatly because half of my family is French. Their descendants will have to emigrate, accept the yoke of Muslim oppression, or convert to Islam. Not pleasant choices.
Comment by Jack kint — 2/28/2005 @ 1:41 pm
I am surprised this hasn’t come up directly, although it has come up indirectly. Religion and philosophy are parallel, they ask, address and answer the same type of questions. They guide us…every decision we make is based on how we make decisions, which is in large part derived from religion and philosophy. Many people aren’t consciously aware of their decision making tools. Many people have a poorly integrated mish mash combination. But some people have a very explicit understanding. A Born Again Christian or an Islamist Jihadi both know what they believe, how broadly it influences their lives and decisions as does a Marxist. Many people, both religious and philisophical, know what they believe and why they believe it, but even more do not. But many people have a mish mash of ideas from all over the idea map. The problem in Europe is one of Philosophy. The Christian Right in America and the secular Left in Europe are both keenly aware of their differences with each other. But it is not enough to label it secular…it is not enough to say that it is ‘not religious’ you have to define what it is. Fundamentally, Europe is no longer philosophically based in Judeo-Christian values. It’s philosophy, when not openly socialist, is still founded on Kantian philosophy…the handmaiden of communism. Ask any European if the statement “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need” is a good idea or a bad one, and there will be near universal consensus that it is a good idea…the debate is about how much to take from whom and who to give it to in what way. Very, very few will argue that it is a violation of the property rights of the individuals who create and earn the wealth. But while that difference is economic and in the realm of socialism, the same judgments of right and wrong affect all sorts of other judgments, such as whether or not to start a family, and patriotism towards your nation-state. There have been two schools of philisophical thought through history…both evolving and updating. They can be traced back to Aristotle and Plato. It was the descendents of Aristotle’s thought who eventually gave us ‘the West’ in both its renaissance and enlightenment era forms and Plato who gave us both the dark ages, and communism/fascism. It is not coincidence that in any university philosophy department, either in Europe or America, virtually every philisophical debate is between the various strains of Plato’s intellectual descendants. The descendants of Aristotle’s thought are absent. Europe is in a bad way. But its biggest problem are the ideas that lie at the core of its current identity. I see no sign of true ideological shift, but that is not to say it couldn’t happen, and happen quickly. Necessity is the mother of invention…as things in Europe get worse Europe will have to confront the consequences of its ideas. But ideas can change quickly…look how fast the enlightenment era gave birth to liberty in America. Look how fast both Fascism and Communism moved from ideas to controlling nation states. Europe may (barely) recognize that communism doesn’t work, and is in fact evil, but they still accept its philisophical foundation. If they hang on to that foundation as the situation continues to deterioriate, they are doomed. But I think eventually, at some point, they will discard their stale old ideas and adopt new ones. I have hope that they could find an intellectual descendent of Locke, but if not, they can always follow the Propher Mohammed (PBUH).
Comment by Blanknoone — 2/28/2005 @ 2:50 pm
I mostly agree with Steyn’s argument although rather than hearalding the “death of the west” these events show that there never was such a thing. I’m talking about an acknowledgment of “the West’s” non-existence. Relationships between the U.S. and Europe have been an almost unbroken string of rivalry, turned to dependency, turned to jealousy, and finally a seething hatred. Europe went straignt from imperialism to socialism (whether of the facist type of Marxist type it makes little difference) with nary a collective thought given to anything approaching a free market economy and limited government. Those are the ideas upon which the U.S. was founded and the ideas that Europe disdains and ridicules. Individual liberty and responsibility are inalterably incompatible with socialism. Until the U.S. abandons its Constitutional ideals we will be at odds with “Europe”. Unfortunately all signs indicate that we are much closer to giving up our foundation than Europe is to giving up theirs.
Comment by SgtP_USMC — 2/28/2005 @ 3:20 pm
Re 75: What I meant about the “Western European variant of Homo Sapiens” was not that white people are better fighters, but that we have been the innovators in warfare for the last couple of millenia. Everything designed to take life in the most efficient, horrible way possible in the last hundred years, which is the most significant time frame in warfare up to this point, has been made by good old Whitey. We have smart bombs, unmanned aircraft, cruise missiles, and all sorts of wonderful gadgets that can kill an enemy without placing one of our soldiers in danger. We have nukes, lots of them, and the means to deliver them anywhere at any time. Only backward idiots like old men in bathrobes who read ancient texts and drink tea for a living, or psychopathic megalomaniacal hermit-kings could think that they could pick a fight with us and survive. Winning a war against the U.S., or anyone we decide to defend, is completely out of the question. I don’t doubt that someone will point out the blatantly racist nature of this argument, but it’s true, we make the most horrible weapons, and we will use them. As I stated before, it’s a good thing America is exactly the polar opposite of what everyone this it is, because if we decide it’s time for war, the poor bastards on the other side have two choices; they can formulate a plan of surrender, or they can die fighting.
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/28/2005 @ 5:02 pm
Some thoughts on the future of Islam and the West I watched a program on CSPAN this morning about the future of Islam, and there seems to be a change coming. The panelists were government officials from Iran, Pakistan, Malaysia (I think), and one more I can’t remember. If I wasn’t so lazy I’d Google it, but it’s a moot point. The point is that many tough questions were asked, by Muslims, of Muslims, and the panelists spent much time dodging and redirecting, but to no avail. One can see that Muslims are finally starting to realize they’ve been lied to and kept in the dark for a long time. I heard lots of references to the Islamic contributions to civilization in the past, and the fact that Islam can once again contribute, but not without major changes. It seems that maybe Muslims are discovering the principles of Liberty. Liberty brings peace. This is a good thing. It was the Age of Enlightenment, which followed the Renaissance, which introduced Europe to the idea of Liberty, but it was only in America, devoid of entrenched, self-serving interests, that it grew to its full promise. Europe never really got it, and now the major powers are slowly dying from the poison fruit they’ve been feasting on for so long, and the radicalized, unassimilated Muslims are only to glad to help them along their way, but something is happening… There is a “velvet revolution” under way in Lebanon as I write this, and every day is full of new hope. Things are going to change, and very quickly it seems. Egypt, Syria, and Iran are going to have to come around soon, or face the wrath of their own people, because you can’t lie to and deceive people who have internet access and satellite television, they won’t buy it anymore. Muslims are starting to see that the U.S. is not their enemy, but their savior, because if we didn’t stand up for them, nobody would have. The result is that the Islamic world is about to have its own renaissance; there will be a new flowering of art, culture, and most importantly, critical thought once the people are free. It won’t happen overnight, but it will come sooner than anyone might think, and the idea of Liberty will spread like wildfire through the Islamic world. Good ideas have a way of doing that; they are infectious, and once someone has the bug they can’t wait to give it to someone else. Liberty brings peace and prosperity. Now here’s the irony: If the European of the future will have an Arab face, and if Liberty becomes the rallying cry of the Islamic world, then it will be the Arabs who once again reintroduce Europe to ideas it had long since forgotten, as they did with the Greek and Roman classics a thousand years ago, which Europe had lost. It was Arab scholars who had Jews translate the Greek texts into Arabic, and it was Spanish Jews who translated Arabic texts into Spanish for Christians to rediscover. All this happened about the time of the Renaissance. Funny how the more things change, the more they stay the same, or “what goes around, comes around”. I think I’ll go read Plato’s Republic, or maybe The Rubiyat of Omar Khayyam, just to see what the future is like.
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/28/2005 @ 5:28 pm
Somebody brought up the subject of the internal terrorists like McVeigh. Being a resident of OKC I can speak to this. The comment was made that this shows that you had better not piss off the government. McVeigh and his kind did not go away because of the gov’t. They went away because people in general stopped turning a blind eye to these whack jobs in the country popping off AK-47 rounds. It was squelched as part of a cultural backlash. You can’t find enough of these guys to get together a good Texas Hold’em game going anymore. Not because of the gov’t., but because of a change in culture in our society. In relation to the Muslim world, I believe this is the only way the Muslim extremists are going to go away is a cultural change in the Muslim community. But from what I have seen so far, I don’t see it happening.
Comment by David Zink — 2/28/2005 @ 8:25 pm
#95, Improbulus Maximus - I’d like to look for a transcript of the CSPAN program you mentioned. Can you post the time at which it aired, and in what time zone you saw it? Thanks in advance.
Comment by Vik Rubenfeld — 2/28/2005 @ 9:28 pm
Re Improbulous Maximus 94: Read up on John Boyd. The guy that you can credit with the best strategic use of said militech in the Gulf War campaign got a lot of inspiration from military thinker (gasp!) Sun-Tzu. It’s like my idea that Americans work harder and are more efficient because we’re actually more lazy; Due to stagnant tactics and historically uneven commanders taken from the aristocracy, Europeans were in need of the newest and best war tech just to have an edge. However, when it comes to strategic views of war-fighting, Sun-Tzu trumps any theorist the West can put up. Hell, Sun-Tzu takes the state of the nation and political issues into account. As for the Scifi “parallels” mentioned in #89, the Stargate reference is laughable. That story-arc paralleled a paranoid interpretation of Euro diseases killing off native americans. Which we can hear if we go to the right Ethnic Studies class. How is that exploring a “what-if” scenario that is of any relevance? I agree with your main point, but the example you use for it is far below less-than-convincing. And to tie together the earlier point, yeah, Orson Scott Card is clearly a student of Boyd and Sun-Tzu, though neither are expressly mentioned as key influences. But if you know what to look for, they’re there. Better to find real-world correlates in fiction, than to look for the fiction lurking around real-world correlates. Yrs., TWk
Comment by Jon — 2/28/2005 @ 10:41 pm
Re 97: It aired originally 1/27, it was the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. Not the one where Eason Jordan shot himself in the foot after sticking it in his mouth though…
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/28/2005 @ 11:02 pm
Re 98: I know all about Sun Tzu, (he’s in my top ten of greatest military minds of all time), and I never want it thought that I have some sort of Western Superiority Complex, I’m just a realist. At various time in human cultural development, diverse cultures have laid claim to the informal title of “Warmasters”, it just happens that for the last thousand years it’s been our turn in the West, and specifically America’s turn for the last half century. I have some theories I’m working on regarding the relations between societal order, technology, economic systems, and religion. Basically it goes like this: In order for one group of people to gain dominance over another, several things are required. You must have a growing population, sufficient short-term food production, insufficient space to keep and feed everyone over successive generations, technological development which contriutes to the manufacture of tools and weapons, which contribute to the getting and keeping of food, (all things are tied together, you see), and most importantly of all, a group purpose, which is where religion comes in. The Chinese were technologically, societally, militarily, and morally far superious to we “barbarians” in the West a thousand years ago, but they had such a good network of interdependant systems, and everything worked so well, that their development sort of stagnated. Not to mention they did the one thing which dooms every society; they shut out contact with any foreign cultures, because they didn’t think the “barbarians” had anything to contribute, so they slowly faded into obsolescence, and all it took was a couple of famines and ensuing revolts to set them back a thousand years. But the good news is that what goes around comes around, as I mentioned in a previous post, and in a hundred years China will once again be a cultural, scientific, and philosophical leader in the world. The same thing has happened many times in many places to many different cultures. Sometimes it’s a single catastrophic natural disaster such as a volcano, sometimes it’s a run of bad weather lasting for a few years, sometimes it’s an invasion of barbarian hordes, (sometimes and unfortunate combination), but no matter, the result is always the same; cultural devestation, and someone else gets to be king of the hill, for a while anyway. The only constant in human history is change, because growth comes out of chaos, and since chaos is variable, the the only constant is a variable, to put it in mathematical terms. Stability is a good thing in the short term; we can’t have revolutions every time someone doesn’t like the way things are going, but over the long run, history shows that societies that are too stable lose the ability to adapt to changing conditions. Take Athens and Sparta for example. Athens was pure chaos with it’s democracy, in which every free adult male was compelled to participate in the assembly, and Sparta was pure stability with it’s orderly communal system in which nobody had any choice as to their role in life. Sparta was hugely successful in warfare and commerce over the short term, but after a few generations they were still doing things the same way, and though they had always beaten Athens at war, Athens with its chaos had the ability to change, so they changed their battle tactics to beat the Spartans, who were the epitome of predictability. Sparta, the “perfect” system, was crushed in the end because they couldn’t change. So, with this in mind, is anyone willing to lay odds on the survival of traditional, fundamentalist Islamic culture, which is so unwilling to change that it sacrifices its children? Radical Islam is doomed, and terrorism along with it. All things must change or die, so take hope for the future, unless you’re too set in your ways, in which case, have a nice laconic remark handy when its time to check out as Leonidas did at Thermopylae when he was told the Persians had enough archers to darken the sky with arrows; he replied “Then we will fight in the shade.” Radical Islam is fighting in the shade even now…
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/28/2005 @ 11:28 pm
By the way, anyone who doesn’t read it now should. http://www.daybydaycartoon.com
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 2/28/2005 @ 11:32 pm
Re: 85- The radicalization of 1st generation Muslims in Europe is the result of Islamist propaganda disseminated via Saudi-funded mosques. Bernard Lewis used the example of the synagogue bombings in Istanbul. Turks have historically been the most western-friendly and “secular” of all Muslim nations. The bombings were indeed carried out by Turks, but Turks born in Germany whose only experience with Islamic institutions had been the Wahabi mosques in Germany. Wahabis are deeply intoerant, to put it mildly, with respect to other faiths, cultures, and even to different sects of Islam. This problem is compounded by the reluctance on the part of the host country (Germany) prosecute political hate-speech in the mosques. Funny, historically they have not had a problem with clamping down on hate speech from the German Fascists, but they are too multi-culti to call Islamofascist incendiary propaganda what it is. Without the home culture to mitigate and give context to the teachings of the Koran, it is understandable that young men who are struggling for an identity would look for support from their faith and its putative teachers. This gives the Islamists the perfect opportunity to recruit.
Comment by Quid — 3/1/2005 @ 3:53 pm
Re 102: Good point, it seems that no matter what path one follows to track the source of terrorism, the Saudis, with their Wahabi extremism, are at the end of it as often as not. I was just talking to a friend of mine today while I had lunch in his restaurant. He is from Jordan, as are many local Arabs, and he casually mentioned that nobody in the Middle East likes the Saudis, whom most other Arabs consider backwards and despotic. He also called them usurpers and descendants of slaves. I thought this was an interesting remark, and I think I’ll do some research into it.
Comment by Improbulus Maximus — 3/1/2005 @ 4:28 pm
Speaking of destabilization.. If you’re conspiracy-minded, perhaps the weak dollar ‘non-policy’ currently in effect has the destabilization of the EU as a goal? Make exports more expensive, put pressure on labor costs and tax structures, watch the strikes and/or riots start as weak governments try to restructure? Smells like Germany to me… And there will probably be enough room for internal migration to more competitive member states like Slovenia, Poland, and the rest of ‘New Europe’…
Comment by Otis Wildflower — 3/2/2005 @ 3:16 am
>Progressive secular welfarism is a great life - but only for a generation or two. After that, it’s a death cult. Why? Because it mortgages the future while spending the capital of the past. Eventually the bill comes due and there is nothing to pay it with. That is fine for elderly citizens balancing their assets against their lifespan, since they expect to die. But the nations of Europe have deluded themselves thinking they can act the same way yet cheat the piper.
Comment by William Meisheid — 3/2/2005 @ 2:14 pm
Refer all to Jacques Barzun’s magisterial “Dawn to Decadence”, an overview of Western contexts from Gutenberg c. 1450 to network TV c. 1950. There is a cut-and-thrust to semi-millenial historical drama, which in this 21st Century lends one a sense more of ebbing than of rising tides. In this case, though, see David Hackett Fisher’s “The Long Wave”, a study of Western socio-economics based on 800 years of meticulously gathered commodity prices. DHF asserts that Western, if not World, experience is due for a respite akin to a “Renaissance Equilibrium” or “Victorian Equilibrium”, which recur at intervals: Teceding demographics, low inflation, relative peace-and-prosperity amid ongoing technological advance. But this time, it may be that a looming demographic cataclysm, worse than the Great Plagues, will depopulate the developed world on the threshold of an end to the Holocene brought on as Planet Earth moves through an annular ring of dust in the inner Solar System in 2113, if not before. (Global Cooling, anyone? We’re 1,500 years past due.) Politics then will be the least of worries, except in the off-Earth population centers majestically orbiting above the plane of the ecliptic. But, hey! Let’s not go overboard. Everybody knew, in 1903, the Wright Flyer would remain a “rich man’s toy.”
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