Austin Bay Blog

StrategyPage has been covering Nigeria’s “delta oil war” in great detail.

Rebels hit a pumping station in September 2005. This post from November 12, 2005 gives a quick look at one of the separatist leaders (who was charged with treason).

Here’s the report from February 18, 2006 that describes one of the guerrilla groups (there are several– MEND emerged this year).

This is StrategyPage’s most recent analysis.

 Today the New York Times reports:

Armed rebels raided an oil drilling rig 40 miles off the Nigerian coast early today and kidnapped eight foreign oil workers, in the latest of a string of violent incidents meant to disrupt oil production in the country’s oil-rich Niger Delta region.

The abducted workers — one American, six Britons and a Canadian — were part of a crew of 84 aboard the rig, the Bulford Dolphin, according to a statement by Fred Olsen Energy ASA, the Norwegian company that operates the rig.

“There has been contact from the group that is holding the eight personnel,” said Sheena Wallace, a spokeswoman for Fred Olsen Energy, which is based in Oslo. She said the attackers sought negotiations, but gave no indication yet of who they were or what they were seeking.

This is an offshore raid — a sea-borne raid to take hostages and make headlines. It has achieved both goals. Kidnapping Americans, Brits, and Canadians guarantees headlines, and in 21st century warfare capturing headlines and holding international attention is often more important than capturing a fortress or holding a city.

The attackers used four speedboats. This type of attack (a raid) relies on three things. (1) Good intelligence — fair bet the rebels have scouted every rig, platform, and pumping station. (2) Surprise– the tactics of this kind of raid are simple but tricky. When I was briefed by US Navy security personnel on how rigs and oil platforms might be attacked in the Persian Gulf one of the methods mentioned was using fishing boats as a screen. And requirement (3): A cadre of capable gunmen. The rebels have that. A raid like this might take only ten to twenty men (think of a pirate attack in Southeast Asia or off Africa’s Somali coast).

The rebels (”oil gangs” StrategyPage has called them) took four foreign hostages earlier this year.

The NYT article adds:

In recent months, militant groups have been demanding that the coastal region receive a greater share of national oil revenue, and have been pressuring the government by attacking oil facilities. A previously unknown group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, claimed responsibility for previous kidnappings and attacks against pipelines and export terminals.

Because of these incidents, Nigeria’s oil production has fallen by 20 percent, or more than 550,000 barrels of oil a day, since the beginning of the year.

Oil is literally fueling this “delta war.” Ethnic identity (tribal autonomy demands) are another factor. NIgeria wants to avoid another Biafran War (1967-69). If the delta war expands into another civil war just watch the spot price of oil spike. Nigeria cleaves into a northern Muslim half and a southern Christian half. Most of the oil fields lie in the south. A fight over the oil would ignite sectarian conflicts.

 As I was completing this post VOA ran a very thoughtful article. Key excerpt:

Paul Wee is with the Washington-based United States Institute of Peace. He recently visited Nigeria and says that despite the country’s oil wealth, the situation in the delta is deplorable.”Down by the coastline, the Ogoni people live - - 500-thousand people. They sit right on top of the oil. When you go through this territory, you go through towns that have absolutely no electricity. There’s no hospital and no school. People [are ] very frustrated [and] very angry,” says Wee.

The Ogonis are one of a number of ethnic groups living in the delta. Others include the Ijaws, the Itsekiri, the Urhobo, and farther inland, the Ibos. Combined, they make up more than 10-million of Nigeria’s total population of more than 130-million. The groups say their demands that the federal government share its oil revenues have been all but ignored. They also say oil production has caused pollution on such a massive scale that traditional farming and fishing has become difficult if not impossible, making the economic situation in the delta even worse.

But the people of the delta have primarily focused their anger at the foreign oil companies rather than the government. Analyst Josephine Osikena at the Foreign Policy Center in London says that is because of perceptions of where power lies in Nigeria. ”People increasingly recognize these multi-nationals [i.e., foreign oil companies] to be much stronger politically and economically than the central government…

This is one of those ugly, small-scale conflicts taking place –for the most part– beyond the lenses of satellite tv. Yet this conflict that has genuine, measureable global economic effects. 

UPDATE: The eight hostages were freed on June 4. Reuters reports that (quote) “Authorities declined to comment on whether a ransom had been paid, but a security source close to the situation said money had changed hands.”